Shawn Dubin

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Houston Astros #25 prospect in 2023
  BA Grade/Risk: 35/Medium
  
  Track Record: Dubin signed for a bonus of $1,000 out of NAIA Georgetown (Ky.). He's dealt with injuries and command issues throughout his professional career but has shown enough bat-missing ability to earn a spot on the Astros' 40-man roster. He spent the majority of his 2022 season with Triple-A Sugar Land, where he struck out 80 batters across 58.1 innings. Dubin missed time in 2022 with a forearm strain.
  
  Scouting Report: Dubin's fastball velocity took a significant jump upon entering pro ball. After sitting in the low 90s in college, Dubin grew into mid-90s velocity. That velocity spike has also come with arm troubles. When he's on, Dubin's fastball sits between 96-98 mph and touches 101 mph with ride and cut. He mixes four secondary pitches in a high-80s cutter, a mid-80s slider, a low-80s curveball and a low-90s changeup. His primary secondary is his cutter but he plays his two breaking ball shapes off of his fastball-cutter combination in two-strike counts. Dubin has below-average control and is prone to bouts of losing the zone.
  
  The Future: Dubin profiles as a hybrid reliever capable of going multiple innings without losing his powerful stuff. He should serve as reliever depth for the Astros in 2023.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60. Curveball: 45. Slider: 50. Changeup: 30. Cutter: 45. Control: 40.
• 
  Ranked Houston Astros #11 prospect in 2022
  Track Record: Dubin signed for $1,000 after a circuitous college career during which he almost gave up playing baseball. He finished at NAIA Georgetown (Ky.) after Buffalo shuttered its program. Dubin has added 30 pounds and substantial fastball velocity since reaching pro ball. He struck out 12.5 per nine innings at Triple-A Sugar Land in 2021 and was added to the Astros’ 40-man roster after the season despite throwing just 49.2 innings due to elbow inflammation.
  
  Scouting Report: After hovering around 90 mph in college, Dubin’s fastball now sits anywhere from 93-96 mph with explosive life and reaches 99 mph. His plus slider, which he didn’t throw until college, sweeps enough to generate swings and misses from both righties and lefties and is a legitimate out pitch. Both his slider and curveball are high spin and aided by a deceptive delivery. He can incorporate a cutter he learned at Houston’s alternate site along with a developing changeup. Dubin’s delivery is now far more efficient and he uses his lower half more instead of the whippy, long stride he showed in college.
  
  The Future: Dubin’s plus slider and a fastball that plays up in short spurts make him an obvious reliever candidate, but the Astros are still giving him a chance to start with a five-pitch mix.
  
• 
  Ranked Houston Astros #14 prospect in 2021
  TRACK RECORD: When Buffalo shut down its baseball program, Dubin transferred to NAIA Georgetown (Ky.) for his senior year. After signing with the Astros for $1,000 in 2018, he added velocity in 2019 and led the high Class A Carolina League with 132 strikeouts in just 98.2 innings. The Astros brought him to their alternate training site in 2020.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dubin came into pro ball with a fast arm. With added weight, he now pitches at 92-96 mph and can hit 99 with late riding life when he pitches up in the zone. Dubin's slider is his key pitch. It's a plus offering with tight rotation and good tilt when it's on, but it can be inconsistent and has a shorter, cutter-like break at times. His solid-average curveball and fringe-average changeup round out his repertoire. Dubin has some effort in his delivery and struggled to throw strikes in college. He has fringe-average control and has kept his walks reasonable, if still a tick high.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dubin has a chance to start. Along with his mechanics, the way his fastball and slider would play up in short stints leads some scouts to think he's better suited for a bullpen role.
• 
  Ranked Houston Astros #19 prospect in 2020
  TRACK RECORD: Dubin had to transfer from Buffalo to Georgetown (Ky.) for his senior season when Buffalo shut down its program. A $1,000 senior sign, when the Astros drafted him he pitched with a fringe-average straight fastball. In the second half of the 2019 season, he was throwing five-to-seven mph harder than he was just a year before.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dubin's newfound velocity has come even though he still has the frame of a telephone pole. Dubin barely weighs 160 pounds, but he has an extremely fast arm and he gets all of his momentum directed to the plate. Dubin's 93-98 mph plus-plus fastball now has solid carry up in the strike zone. It sets up an erratic slider. At its best, it's a plus pitch with depth and bite, but too often it's short and more cutter-ish than his best ones. He also needs to show he can land it, as too often it's a pure chase pitch that worked against Class A hitters, but won't be as effective against more advanced batters. His change is unremarkable with modest deception, but it plays average because hitters are gearing up for the fastball.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dubin's slim frame, all-out delivery and hit-or-miss slider all seem to indicate he'll end up in the bullpen, but considering he's gone from being an org arm to a solid prospect in one year, there's no reason to limit his opportunities to improve. He could start for Double-A Corpus Christi in 2020.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Carolina League #19 prospect in 2019
  Dubin transferred to NAIA Georgetown (Ky.) after his previous school, Division I Buffalo, dropped its baseball program following his junior year. The Astros took a flyer on him as a senior sign and gave him a $1,000 signing bonus. Carolina League hitters batted just .196 off Dubin, who didn’t allow a run over 18 innings in his final three regular-season starts. In his first playoff start, he held Down East to one run in six innings to help the Woodpeckers reach the league championship series against Wilmington. Dubin’s stuff plays more like that of a first-round pick than a player who entered the year as a relative unknown. "He’s 95-98 with a hammer,” Fayetteville manager Nate Shaver said. "He’s electric and super-twitchy with a lot of feel. He has a wipeout slider, too.”

• February, 2023 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 35/Medium
  
  Track Record: Dubin signed for a bonus of $1,000 out of NAIA Georgetown (Ky.). He's dealt with injuries and command issues throughout his professional career but has shown enough bat-missing ability to earn a spot on the Astros' 40-man roster. He spent the majority of his 2022 season with Triple-A Sugar Land, where he struck out 80 batters across 58.1 innings. Dubin missed time in 2022 with a forearm strain.
  
  Scouting Report: Dubin's fastball velocity took a significant jump upon entering pro ball. After sitting in the low 90s in college, Dubin grew into mid-90s velocity. That velocity spike has also come with arm troubles. When he's on, Dubin's fastball sits between 96-98 mph and touches 101 mph with ride and cut. He mixes four secondary pitches in a high-80s cutter, a mid-80s slider, a low-80s curveball and a low-90s changeup. His primary secondary is his cutter but he plays his two breaking ball shapes off of his fastball-cutter combination in two-strike counts. Dubin has below-average control and is prone to bouts of losing the zone.
  
  The Future: Dubin profiles as a hybrid reliever capable of going multiple innings without losing his powerful stuff. He should serve as reliever depth for the Astros in 2023.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60. Curveball: 45. Slider: 50. Changeup: 30. Cutter: 45. Control: 40.
• December, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 35/Medium
  
  Track Record: Dubin signed for a bonus of $1,000 out of NAIA Georgetown (Ky.). He's dealt with injuries and command issues throughout his professional career but has shown enough bat-missing ability to earn a spot on the Astros' 40-man roster. He spent the majority of his 2022 season with Triple-A Sugar Land, where he struck out 80 batters across 58.1 innings. Dubin missed time in 2022 with a forearm strain.
  
  Scouting Report: Dubin's fastball velocity took a significant jump upon entering pro ball. After sitting in the low 90s in college, Dubin grew into mid-90s velocity. That velocity spike has also come with arm troubles. When he's on, Dubin's fastball sits between 96-98 mph and touches 101 mph with ride and cut. He mixes four secondary pitches in a high-80s cutter, a mid-80s slider, a low-80s curveball and a low-90s changeup. His primary secondary is his cutter but he plays his two breaking ball shapes off of his fastball-cutter combination in two-strike counts. Dubin has below-average control and is prone to bouts of losing the zone.
  
  The Future: Dubin profiles as a hybrid reliever capable of going multiple innings without losing his powerful stuff. He should serve as reliever depth for the Astros in 2023.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60. Curveball: 45. Slider: 50. Changeup: 30. Cutter: 45. Control: 40.
• December, 2021 Scouting Report
  Track Record: Dubin signed for $1,000 after a circuitous college career during which he almost gave up playing baseball. He finished at NAIA Georgetown (Ky.) after Buffalo shuttered its program. Dubin has added 30 pounds and substantial fastball velocity since reaching pro ball. He struck out 12.5 per nine innings at Triple-A Sugar Land in 2021 and was added to the Astros’ 40-man roster after the season despite throwing just 49.2 innings due to elbow inflammation.
  
  Scouting Report: After hovering around 90 mph in college, Dubin’s fastball now sits anywhere from 93-96 mph with explosive life and reaches 99 mph. His plus slider, which he didn’t throw until college, sweeps enough to generate swings and misses from both righties and lefties and is a legitimate out pitch. Both his slider and curveball are high spin and aided by a deceptive delivery. He can incorporate a cutter he learned at Houston’s alternate site along with a developing changeup. Dubin’s delivery is now far more efficient and he uses his lower half more instead of the whippy, long stride he showed in college.
  
  The Future: Dubin’s plus slider and a fastball that plays up in short spurts make him an obvious reliever candidate, but the Astros are still giving him a chance to start with a five-pitch mix.
  
• July, 2021 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: When Buffalo shut down its baseball program, Dubin transferred to NAIA Georgetown (Ky.) for his senior year. After signing with the Astros for $1,000 in 2018, he added velocity in 2019 and led the high Class A Carolina League with 132 strikeouts in just 98.2 innings. The Astros brought him to their alternate training site in 2020.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dubin came into pro ball with a fast arm. With added weight, he now pitches at 92-96 mph and can hit 99 with late riding life when he pitches up in the zone. Dubin's slider is his key pitch. It's a plus offering with tight rotation and good tilt when it's on, but it can be inconsistent and has a shorter, cutter-like break at times. His solid-average curveball and fringe-average changeup round out his repertoire. Dubin has some effort in his delivery and struggled to throw strikes in college. He has fringe-average control and has kept his walks reasonable, if still a tick high.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dubin has a chance to start. Along with his mechanics, the way his fastball and slider would play up in short stints leads some scouts to think he's better suited for a bullpen role.
• March, 2021 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: When Buffalo shut down its baseball program, Dubin transferred to NAIA Georgetown (Ky.) for his senior year. After signing with the Astros for $1,000 in 2018, he added velocity in 2019 and led the high Class A Carolina League with 132 strikeouts in just 98.2 innings. The Astros brought him to their alternate training site in 2020.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dubin came into pro ball with a fast arm. With added weight, he now pitches at 92-96 mph and can hit 99 with late riding life when he pitches up in the zone. Dubin's slider is his key pitch. It's a plus offering with tight rotation and good tilt when it's on, but it can be inconsistent and has a shorter, cutter-like break at times. His solid-average curveball and fringe-average changeup round out his repertoire. Dubin has some effort in his delivery and struggled to throw strikes in college. He has fringe-average control and has kept his walks reasonable, if still a tick high.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dubin has a chance to start. Along with his mechanics, the way his fastball and slider would play up in short stints leads some scouts to think he's better suited for a bullpen role.
• December, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: When Buffalo shut down its baseball program, Dubin transferred to NAIA Georgetown (Ky.) for his senior year. After signing with the Astros for $1,000 in 2018, he added velocity in 2019 and led the high Class A Carolina League with 132 strikeouts in just 98.2 innings. The Astros brought him to their alternate training site in 2020.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dubin came into pro ball with a fast arm. With added weight, he now pitches at 92-96 mph and can hit 99 with late riding life when he pitches up in the zone. Dubin's slider is his key pitch. It's a plus offering with tight rotation and good tilt when it's on, but it can be inconsistent and has a shorter, cutter-like break at times. His solid-average curveball and fringe-average changeup round out his repertoire. Dubin has some effort in his delivery and struggled to throw strikes in college. He has fringe-average control and has kept his walks reasonable, if still a tick high.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dubin has a chance to start. Along with his mechanics, the way his fastball and slider would play up in short stints leads some scouts to think he's better suited for a bullpen role.
• July, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Dubin had to transfer from Buffalo to Georgetown (Ky.) for his senior season when Buffalo shut down its program. A $1,000 senior sign, when the Astros drafted him he pitched with a fringe-average straight fastball. In the second half of the 2019 season, he was throwing five-to-seven mph harder than he was just a year before.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dubin’s newfound velocity has come even though he still has the frame of a telephone pole. Dubin barely weighs 160 pounds, but he has an extremely fast arm and he gets all of his momentum directed to the plate. Dubin’s 93-98 mph plus-plus fastball now has solid carry up in the strike zone. It sets up an erratic slider. At its best, it’s a plus pitch with depth and bite, but too often it’s short and more cutter-ish than his best ones. He also needs to show he can land it, as too often it’s a pure chase pitch that worked against Class A hitters, but won’t be as effective against more advanced batters. His change is unremarkable with modest deception, but it plays average because hitters are gearing up for the fastball.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dubin’s slim frame, all-out delivery and hit-or-miss slider all seem to indicate he’ll end up in the bullpen, but considering he’s gone from being an org arm to a solid prospect in one year, there’s no reason to limit his opportunities to improve. He could start for Double-A Corpus Christi in 2020.
• February, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Dubin had to transfer from Buffalo to Georgetown (Ky.) for his senior season when Buffalo shut down its program. A $1,000 senior sign, when the Astros drafted him he pitched with a fringe-average straight fastball. In the second half of the 2019 season, he was throwing five-to-seven mph harder than he was just a year before.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dubin's newfound velocity has come even though he still has the frame of a telephone pole. Dubin barely weighs 160 pounds, but he has an extremely fast arm and he gets all of his momentum directed to the plate. Dubin's 93-98 mph plus-plus fastball now has solid carry up in the strike zone. It sets up an erratic slider. At its best, it's a plus pitch with depth and bite, but too often it's short and more cutter-ish than his best ones. He also needs to show he can land it, as too often it's a pure chase pitch that worked against Class A hitters, but won't be as effective against more advanced batters. His change is unremarkable with modest deception, but it plays average because hitters are gearing up for the fastball.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dubin's slim frame, all-out delivery and hit-or-miss slider all seem to indicate he'll end up in the bullpen, but considering he's gone from being an org arm to a solid prospect in one year, there's no reason to limit his opportunities to improve. He could start for Double-A Corpus Christi in 2020.
• December, 2018 Scouting Report
  Dubin transferred to NAIA Georgetown (Ky.) after his previous school, Division I Buffalo, dropped its baseball program following his junior year. The Astros took a flyer on him as a senior sign and gave him a $1,000 signing bonus. Carolina League hitters batted just .196 off Dubin, who didn’t allow a run over 18 innings in his final three regular-season starts. In his first playoff start, he held Down East to one run in six innings to help the Woodpeckers reach the league championship series against Wilmington. Dubin’s stuff plays more like that of a first-round pick than a player who entered the year as a relative unknown. "He’s 95-98 with a hammer,” Fayetteville manager Nate Shaver said. "He’s electric and super-twitchy with a lot of feel. He has a wipeout slider, too.”