Kyle Lotzkar Stats & Scouting Report

Full name Kyle S. Lotzkar
Born 10/24/1989 in Delta, BC, Canada
Profile Ht.: 6'5" / Wt.: 210 / Bats: L / Throws: R
School South Delta Secondary
Drafted in the C-A round (53rd overall) by the Cincinnati Reds in 2007 (signed for $594,000).

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It's an unprecedented year for talent in Canada, and Lotzkar has established himself as the consensus second-best Canadian prospect behind Phillippe Aumont. He played on a club team coached by Doug Mathieson, the father of Phillies righthander Scott. Lotzkar, 17, developed physically at the perfect time, adding 15 pounds of muscle and two inches between last summer and this spring. His fastball sits near 91 mph, touching 94. His arm action is loose and clean, though he doesn't repeat his delivery and remains unrefined as a pitcher. His command is erratic. His breaking ball has improved, while his changeup is below-average. Lotzkar turned in an impressive showing in Florida in front of a throng of scouts in April, and because he's projectable and has shown feel for two potentially plus pitches, he's a candidate to be taken in the supplemental round.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Lotzkar's to-do list for 2012 had one big item at the top: Stay healthy. He has endured a stress fracture in his elbow followed by Tommy John surgery, as well as a strained hamstring, and never had topped 67 innings in a season. He finally reached that threshold last year, but even then the Reds were cautious with him. He was pulled at 80 pitches or less in seven of his last nine starts as his stuff backed up, and he went 1-4, 7.25 in the second half with 31 walks and 10 homers allowed in 45 innings. At his best, Lotzkar has some of the best stuff in the system and is one of the few pitchers who can generate swings and misses with his curveball. It's harder than the average curveball and can be almost described as a slurve. His 90-94 mph fastball is a tick above average as well. He also throws a fringy, firm changeup but locates it well; it just doesn't offer much deception. Health concerns still cloud Lotzkar's potential. Although many of the worst aspects of his delivery have been cleaned up, the team still hasn't felt comfortable letting him just go out and pitch. His stuff will work as a power reliever, which may save some wear and tear. For now, he'll stay a starter and return to Double-A.
Lotzkar has been around for so long that he was drafted with a supplemental firstround pick the Reds got for losing free agent Scott Schoeneweis. With the way that Lotzkar burst onto the scene in 2008, blowing away the low Class A hitters for 10 midseason starts as a teenager, he could have made his big league debut by now. Instead, he still hasn't gotten past the Midwest League because injuries have slowed his development. He developed a stress fracture in his elbow in 2008 and had Tommy John surgery the following season. His 67 innings last year were a career high, but he missed more time with a strained hamstring. Lotzkar's stuff didn't hold up as well with his increased workload. After showing a 90-94 mph fastball in 2010, he worked more at 89-91 last season. He also battled control problems, leading the MWL with 15 hit batters in 14 starts. Lotzkar still has a plus curveball, while his changeup remains below average. Though he has progressed much slower than hoped and he's not close to being big league-ready, Cincinnati still opted to protect him on its 40- man roster in November. His stuff likely would play up in the bullpen, and he might be able to stay healthy by working shorter stints. If he can stay on the mound, he'll finally reach high Class A in 2012.
The Reds have had to be very patient with Lotzkar. A sandwich pick in 2007, he went down with a stress fracture in his elbow in 2008 and required Tommy John surgery when he tore an elbow ligament the following year. He missed all of 2009 before returning last June and showing the same stuff he had before the injuries. Lotzkar features a 90-94 mph fastball with good life. He has a hard curveball that he can bury for strikeouts as well as a slower curve that he uses as a get-me-over pitch, and his breaking stuff seemed better after his layoff. His changeup shows promise, as does his cutter. He showed improved feel for pitching in his return to action and now does a better job of working both sides of the plate. Lotzkar used to pitch with a high elbow in his delivery, which many suspected led to his injuries. He since has toned down his mechanics and lowered his elbow by breaking his hands quicker in his windup. If Lotzkar can stay healthy, he has the biggest upside of any pitcher in the system other than Aroldis Chapman. Still relatively young at age 21, he'll try to prove he can make a full season's worth of starts at Dayton in 2011.
Whenever he has been healthy, Lotzkar has been one of the best pitching prospects in the system. But those times have been few and far between. He was held back in extended spring training with a sore neck to start 2008, then suffered a stress fracture in his elbow that August. Upon his return last spring, he blew out his elbow and required Tommy John surgery in mid-May. The combination of elbow injuries will require a longer rehab time than normal, and Lotzkar likely won't return to the mound until mid-2010. However, the Reds note that Francisco Cordero went through similar problems in 1998 and returned with no ill effects. Before the injuries, Lotzkar showed the potential for three plus pitches--a 91-93 mph fastball, a power curveball and a changeup-- but needed to improve his command and consistency. Because he was drafted as a 17-year-old, Lotzkar hasn't fallen too far behind. He still has the potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter if he can stay healthy.
Lotzkar set the stage for going 53rd overall in the 2007 draft when he touched 96 mph with Team Canada in the World Junior Championships the previous fall. His 2008 season ended when he came down with a small stress fracture in his elbow in August. However, he was back throwing on the side a month later and showed no ill effects when he participated in instructional league. Before he got hurt, Lotzkar confirmed his status as the Reds' most promising young pitcher. He has the potential to have three plus pitches. His fastball sits at 91-93 mph with excellent life, and his free-and-easy delivery allows it to jump on hitters. Unlike many young pitchers, he trusts his secondary pitches, a power curveball that gets strikeouts and a changeup. Health is the biggest concern with Lotzkar, who also was held back in extended spring training until June because he had a sore neck. His control and command need refinement, and his curveball and changeup lack consistency. If he can stay healthy and add polish, Lotzkar could end up becoming a No. 2 starter. At age 19, he'll still be on track if he returns to low Class A Dayton in 2009.
Lotzkar was one of the biggest risers in the 2007 draft, climbing draft boards after adding 15 pounds of muscle before his senior season. He showed off his improved physique with a fastball that touched 96 mph against Cuba in the World Junior Championships in the fall of 2006, and also was impressive while touring with a Canadian team in April. When he pitched well in front of several scouts in Florida, he became a possible first-rounder, then cooled off a little and went 53rd overall, signing for $594,000. Lotzkar maintained his stuff in the humidity of the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, showing a 91-94 mph fastball, a potential plus changeup and a promising 78-82 mph curveball. Lotzkar's feel for pitching was surprising considering his youth and his relative inexperience. He sometimes struggles to command his stuff partly because it has outstanding life. He's a long ways from the big leagues, but Lotzkar's stuff, frame and pitchability give the Reds reason to believe he could develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter. He'll likely start 2008 in low Class A.

Minor League Top Prospects

Lotzkar's body began to develop last summer, as he added 15 pounds of muscle and two inches before his senior year of high school in British Columbia. Now 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, he has a fastball that reached 95 mph in the GCL before a late promotion to the Rookie-level Pioneer League. His heater sits at 91-93 mph and he also owns a hard, downer curveball and a changeup that has a chance to be a plus pitch. Command remains Lotzkar's biggest downfall. His fastball has good movement, with such late explosion and tail that it sometimes gets away from him. His breaking ball and changeup also have outstanding life, and it's just a matter of making adjustments in his delivery to get his pitches more under control. Lotzkar is very mature for his age, which adds to his projection as a big-bodied righthander with the potential for three plus pitches.