Juan Duran

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #28 prospect in 2012
  Three years after Reds assistant GM Bob Miller discovered a loophole that allowed the Reds to sign him months before other teams believed he was eligible--at a cost of $2 million--Duran began to show his power in more than just batting-practice displays. He might have the best raw pop in the entire system, though it remains to be seen whether he'll hit enough to make use of it. He struck out in a career-high 38 percent of his plate appearances while making his full-season debut last year. Duran can crush a ball when it's out over the plate and gets his arms extended, but he's overly aggressive and has poor pitch recognition. He rarely gets himself into hitter's counts and doesn't show much feel for hitting. Duran grew six inches in the year he signed, and even now his coordination has yet to catch up. He's a poor left fielder whose .931 fielding percentage ranked last among Midwest League outfielders in 2011. His arm is fringy and his speed is well below average. Scouts who saw him in the MWL didn't think much of his instincts or makeup, as he got benched on multiple occasions for not playing hard. Duran is still light years away from Cincinnati, but he did make enough progress in 2011 to warrant a move up to high Class A.
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #28 prospect in 2011
  Aside from Juan Francisco, there may not be a Reds prospect who has better raw power than Duran. The Reds signed him in 2008 for $2 million, when assistant general manager Bob Miller noticed a loophole that allowed him to sign before the traditional July 2 signing date. Since then Duran has grown three inches, which has resulted in growth plate problems that have caused elbow and knee injuries. He was healthier in 2010, though he missed instructional league after injuring his ankle making a diving catch. Like Francisco, Duran can put on a show during batting practice. Unfortunately for the massive outfielder, BP doesn't count on the scoreboard. When the game begins and pitchers aren't throwing everything down the middle, Duran has significant problems making contact, largely because his pitch recognition is poor. With his large strike zone and long levers, Duran projects more as a slugger than someone who will hit for average. He is still relatively lanky and is an average runner. Defensively, Duran has problems reading line drives off the bat and takes poor routes. He does have an above-average arm. Duran still has loads of potential, and he will play the entire season as a 20-year-old, but he'll find low Class A to be a tough assignment unless his approach comes along.
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #18 prospect in 2010
  When the Reds cleverly found a loophole that allowed them to sign Duran months before everyone else thought he was eligible in 2007, they knew they were getting a tall outfielder with a projectable frame. But they didn't expect he'd grow into an NBA forward overnight. Six-foot-3 when Cincinnati signed him for $2 million, Duran has grown four inches since then, which hasn't been good for his development. Elbow problems in 2008 were related to his growth spurt, and torn cartilage cause him to miss extended spring training last year. He has grown seven inches overall since he was 15 and hasn't gotten accustomed to his new frame yet. Duran struggles to stay balanced in his swing, a situation that isn't helped by the pronounced leg kick he uses as a timing mechanism. His calling card is his plus raw power and he puts on a show in batting practice, though his pop wasn't apparent in game action in 2009. Making contact was a serious problem for Duran, who must develop a better base to his batting stance and learn the strike zone to translate his power potential into production. He's a below-average runner coming out of the batter's box, though he does run better once under way. Because of his height--he has the frame to pack on 50 pounds as he matures--it's questionable whether he'll be able to stick in the outfield. His above-average arm fits well in right field. Duran isn't ready to jump to full-season ball in 2010, and he won't be 19 until the end of the season, so the Reds can be patient.
• 
  Ranked Cincinnati Reds #9 prospect in 2009
  The Reds exploited a little-noticed loophole to sign Duran six months before other teams realized he was eligible. He didn't reach the minimum age of 16 until two days after the international signing period ended in 2007, but Cincinnati assistant GM Bob Miller knew of a rule that permitted a player to sign if he'd turn 17 before the end of his first season. The Reds landed Duran in February for $2 million and assigned him to the Pioneer League, where the season ended Sept. 5. He didn't play for Billings, instead spending the summer in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League. Duran already has the best raw power in the system. His swing has natural loft and the ball carries off his bat to all fields. His massive frame has room for another 40-50 pounds of strength, so he could be a beast in a few years. He had a balanced approach and a fluid swing. He has plus speed, though he'll slow down as he fills out. That likely will mean he'll move from center field to right, and he has the arm for the latter position. Duran grew six inches in the span of a year, and he's still getting adjusted to his newfound height. He's more gawky than fluid at this point and sometimes looks awkward on the bases and in the outfield. He has a balky elbow, possibly related to his growth spurt, but it should clear up. Duran's rough performance in the DSL shows that he's still raw and needs time to develop. He's still just 17 and will be well ahead of the development curve in the Gulf Coast League this summer.