Tyler Kolek

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Miami Marlins #17 prospect in 2018
  The No. 2 overall pick in 2014, Kolek signed for $6,000,000, which is the highest draft bonus in franchise history. After signing, he struggled for two seasons and then missed the entire 2016 season after having Tommy John surgery. He briefly returned in 2017, making five appearances in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, but he walked or hit 17 of the 31 batters he faced. Kolek is a physically imposing righthander whose fastball can regularly sit between 96-98 mph. After routinely hitting triple digits as an amateur and topping out at 102 during his senior year, his fastball hasn't reached those levels as a pro, though it still plays as plus with heavy, downward tilt. During his only full season at low Class A Greensboro in 2015, Kolek's slider and changeup both showed below-average, which allowed hitters to sit fastball. More concerning than his lackluster offspeed offerings is Kolek's control, which is below-average. He has walked 5.9 per nine innings for his career. Improving his slider and changeup would help Kolek realize his ceiling as a No. 3 starter. The Marlins worked with him during his rehab to refine his mechanics and improve his command, which at times went haywire because of a side-to-side, cross-arm delivery.
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  Ranked Miami Marlins #3 prospect in 2017
  The No. 2 overall pick in 2014, Kolek signed for a franchise-record $6 million but hasn't shown the Marlins the 100 mph velocity he had in high school. After struggling through a 2015 season in which his stuff backed up at low Class A Greensboro, Kolek missed the 2016 season following Tommy John surgery in April. At 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, Kolek counts size and physicality among his biggest strengths. He has a bulky torso and lower half with great arm strength and surprising quickness when he's healthy. He powers the ball to the plate with a long stride and can drive his fastball down in the zone with heavy sink. Despite his 2015 struggles, Kolek has allowed just seven homers in 130.2 pro innings, evidence his pitches are difficult to hit squarely. However, his slider and changeup played as well below-average, making it easy for batters to wait on his fastball, and his command also was below-average. Prior to his injury, Kolek struggled to have a consistent direct path to the plate and tended to get side-to-side with a crossfire delivery. Despite his draft pedigree, he competes and has the makeup of a grinder. The Marlins plan to rebuild Kolek's delivery and attempt to sharpen his offspeed pitches in spring training. His performance there will determine where and when he opens 2017, but he's unlikely to be ready by Opening Day.
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  Ranked Miami Marlins #1 prospect in 2016
  Entering the 2014 draft, Kolek was an outlier. At 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, he's a massivebodied Texan with a triple-digit fastball who had a chance to become the first high school righthander to go No. 1 overall. A three-sport star who was drawing interest as a football defensive end, Kolek decided to focus exclusively on baseball after a tryout for the Area Code Games in May 2014. Scouts said Kolek was the hardest-throwing prep pitcher in the 50 years of the draft, but it was difficult to project him, simply because there was no easy comparison. Ultimately, the Astros picked Brady Aiken No. 1--but did not sign him--while the Marlins scooped up Kolek and signed him for $6 million, the largest signing bonus in club history. Kolek's size is unprecedented for a first-round prep righthander, but his premium velocity does not come from torso bulk and legs alone. He has outstanding arm strength and quickness, and when he's going right, he has a coordinated delivery with tremendous extension. Given additional rest, Kolek threw 13 consecutive pitches that ranged from 98-101 mph in an early summer outing. He uses his big frame to create a long stride to the plate and has the ability to get over his front side and finish his pitches. At his best his fastball has heavy sink, which generates groundballs and destroys bats. More frequently, though, Kolek's fastball sat at 91-94 mph for much of the first half of the season (and dipped into the high 80s at his worst), picking up only when he was given extra days off. The velocity was closer to what he's shown in the past late in the season, but there were few outings where Kolek showed the consistent top-of-the-scale velocity he demonstrated in high school. Even in a statistically poor season and in a home run-friendly park at low Class A Greensboro, he allowed just seven home runs in 108 innings, which is indicative of the difficulty batters face when trying lift his pitches or square them. But even when he has his best fastball, Kolek has trouble putting hitters away because he lacks a quality second offering to keep hitters from timing his fastball. (He struck out a below-average 6.7 batters per nine innings.) Despite his dominance in high school and draft pedigree, he has the makeup of a grinder and has the competitive nature of a later pick. The progression of his breaking ball will be a vital factor for Kolek's development. He spent the season transitioning from a curveball--which lacked sharpness and depth--to a power slider, and he continued to work on that pitch during instructional league. Both are currently well below-average offerings although Kolek's arm speed should help his slider develop. He also will need to gain feel for a changeup, a pitch he rarely needed to use in high school. It's currently too firm and he struggles to command it, although his feel improves as the game progresses. Despite his struggles in 2015, Kolek showed an ability to fight through adversity. He also got his body in much better shape, shaving the baby fat he carried at Shepherd High. Kolek has the premium velocity, arm strength, physicality and durable body of a front-line starter, but he has a lengthy to-do list to reach that ceiling. Kolek's command and secondary stuff have to make dramatic improvements. How far they progress will determine whether he returns to Greensboro or advances to high Class A Jupiter.
• 
  Ranked Miami Marlins #1 prospect in 2015
  The last time the Marlins held the second overall pick in the draft, they went to the Texas prep pitcher ranks and got a future World Series MVP in Josh Beckett. Going to the same well last June, they nabbed Kolek, a countrystrong fireballer whom they signed for $6 million. That broke Beckett's 15-year-old club record for the largest bonus in Marlins history. Baseball America research indicates that at 6-foot-5, 260 pounds, Kolek is the heaviest first-round high school righthander in draft history. Long-time scouts consider Kolek the hardest-throwing amateur in draft history, both for peak velocity (102 mph) and for consistently hitting 100. This after his junior year was cut short due to a broken arm he sustained during a baserunning collision. He came back hitting 99 mph in Texas' Area Code Games tryouts. His younger brother Stephen also is a big-bodied, hard-throwing righty who is drafteligible in 2015. Kolek has unprecedented size and arm strength, and he has coordination and arm speed to boot. The combination creates top-end velocity, even by today's radar-gun standards. Area scouts in Texas often had side bets with each other to see who could guess the velocity of his first warmup pitch, which often was as high as 97 mph, and he hit 100 virtually every time out in the spring. However, his fastball backed up a bit to 91-94 mph in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League after signing due to a back issue and inconsistent direction in his delivery. The Marlins got him back on track in instructional league, with improved arm speed and more consistent stride, and they believe he'll pitch with a heavy, 95-97 mph heater consistently . Another key aspect of Kolek's fastball is its heavy sinking life, and scouts believe he'll break a lot of wood bats and induce a lot of groundballs. He gets tremendous extension in his delivery at his best, with a long stride to the plate and the ability to get over his front side and finish his pitches. Kolek's top-of-the-scale fastball helps his secondary stuff play up. He's shown an ability to spin the ball, with proper arm speed, though both his slider and power curveball need polish. He doesn't land either pitch consistently for strikes at this point, but both have flashed above-average, with an upper-70s curveball with depth and mid-80s slider with some tilt. At times they blend into one pitch, and he may wind up concentrating on one breaking ball as he develops. Kolek's changeup will be a focal point for his 2015 development, because while he threw it in bullpens and showcases, he didn't throw it in games as a senior. Kolek is considered a solid athlete who's coordinated even at his massive size, but he'll be tested holding runners and fielding his position. He showed improvement in his debut but at times was a slow as 1.5 seconds to the plate. Heading into the draft, the industry had no comparison point for Kolek, who is off the charts in so many ways. He encouraged Marlins officials by improving in instructional league after encountering a bit of adversity and losing something off his fastball in the GCL. Look for Kolek to open 2015 at low Class A Greensboro. The progression of his changeup and fastball command will be key early indicators to see if he hops on a Jose Fernandez-like fast track or if he'll need more time to develop. He could become the next great Texasbred power pitcher.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #2 prospect in 2014 draft
  Scouts knew about Kolek as one of the top 2014 targets in Texas when he broke his left arm in a collision at first base in March 2013. The injury ended his junior season, but Kolek kept himself in shape. When he went to the tryouts for Texas' Area Code Games team in late May, his fastball popped 99. A three-sport star who was drawing interest as a defensive end, Kolek decided to focus exclusively on baseball after the ACG tryout. Kolek then spent the summer establishing himself as the hardest thrower in a draft class full of velocity, and has maintained triple-digit radar gun readings all spring, hitting 100-102 mph regularly. Kolek's fastball sits 96-98 mph thanks to tremendous strength, coordination in his 6-foot-5, 245-pound body and surprising arm speed. Kolek is very athletic in his delivery has a very long stride, even for his size. Scouts consider Kolek's consistent top-end velocity unprecedented in the draft era for a high school pitcher. His fastball plays up beyond its pure velocity readings because of its heavy plus life, working downhill with sink. His dense fastball will likely be a groundball-inducing offering when hitters make contact. He throws both a curveball and slider, and the slider is a power pitch in the mid-80s that is his best secondary pitch and shows at least plus potential. His curveball has decent shape but he prefers the slider. He repeats his delivery and throws quality strikes. He has shown a changeup in showcases or in the bullpen but hasn't needed it in games. Kolek can lose his direction to the plate, working from the far first base side of the rubber and occasionally landing closed. But he has cleaned up his delivery this spring, leading to the consistent velocity. He has performed as expected as a potential top-five pick against small school Texas competition, striking out 60 percent of hitters against 6 percent walks. Scouts struggle think think of a physical comparison for Kolek and that lack of analogous players make scouts wonder how his body will progress as he ages. Strike-throwing ability and the development of his offspeed stuff will be the keys to his development, as he has the chance to develop into a power pitcher that fronts a rotation.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked South Atlantic League #17 prospect in 2015
  Scouts and coaches frequently wondered whether they had confused Kolek, the second pick in the 2014 draft, with another pitcher after watching one of his outings. The massive, 6-foot-5, 260-pound Kolek threw 100 mph in high school, but he sat 91-94 regularly in his first full year as a pro and dipped to 89-92 at times. Kolek struggled to tap into his plus velocity consistently while taking his turn every fifth day. A midseason break that gave him eight days between starts saw him regain his mid-90s velocity for one start. Finally, late in the year he started to show high-90s heat more consistently on regular rest. Kolek is very much a work in progress. Both his curveball and slider are well below-average to the point that he probably needs to pick one to focus on. His changeup is an immature pitch as well. Even when he has his best fastball, Kolek has trouble putting hitters away because they can focus on hitting or fouling off his fastball.
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  Ranked Florida Complex League #2 prospect in 2014
  When the Astros failed to sign No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken, Kolek became the top draft pick to sign this year, netting a $6 million bonus from the Marlins, who took him second overall. For a pitcher with his stuff and draft status, Kolek didn't exactly overmatch GCL hitters, though the Marlins limited his workload so most of his outings lasted no more than three innings. Kolek stood out in high school for his enormous frame, terrific arm speed and devastating mid- to high-90s fastball. His fastball has topped 100 mph and overpowers batters when he's able to keep it in the zone, but after signing his velocity dipped more into the 91-94 mph range. Kolek throws two breaking balls, with his mid-80s slider offering plus potential and grading out ahead of his curveball. He didn't need a changeup in high school, so that pitch will be a focus for him to develop in pro ball. Even with his extra-large build, he's a good athlete with surprising body control, though his command and control can waver, and he does throw across his body. If Kolek can improve in those areas and stay healthy, he has frontline starter potential.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #52 prospect in 2015

• December, 2016 Scouting Report
  Background: The No. 2 overall pick in 2014, Kolek signed for a franchise-record $6 million but hasn't shown the Marlins the 100 mph velocity he had in high school. After struggling through a 2015 season in which his stuff backed up at low Class A Greensboro, Kolek missed the 2016 season following Tommy John surgery in April. Scouting Report: At 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds, Kolek counts size and physicality among his biggest strengths. He has a bulky torso and lower half with great arm strength and surprising quickness when he's healthy. He powers the ball to the plate with a long stride and can drive his fastball down in the zone with heavy sink. Despite his 2015 struggles, Kolek has allowed just seven homers in 130.2 pro innings, evidence his pitches are difficult to hit squarely. However, his slider and changeup played as well below-average, making it easy for batters to wait on his fastball, and his command also was below-average. Prior to his injury, Kolek struggled to have a consistent direct path to the plate and tended to get side-to-side with a crossfire delivery. Despite his draft pedigree, he competes and has the makeup of a grinder.
  
  The Future: The Marlins plan to rebuild Kolek's delivery and attempt to sharpen his offspeed pitches in spring training. His performance there will determine where and when he opens 2017, but he's unlikely to be ready by Opening Day.