Drafted in the 4th round (118th overall) by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2001.
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Nelson is one of the better high school hitters available, with considerable power to all fields. He has put on a show at talent showcases, where he faces stiffer competition than he does in high school. He has pitched, showing a fastball that touches the low 90s, but doesn't face the career choice that Macri does. The 6-foot-2, 225-pound Nelson is a hitter all the way. His strong arm and good hands play well at third base, but his below-average speed may result in a move to first base.
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Organization Prospect Rankings
Nelson ranked No. 1 on this list after the 2002 season, when he led the minors with 49 doubles and 116 RBIs. His career took its first real step backward in 2005, as he started the year in Triple-A but had to endure a midseason demotion back to Double-A. He moved back up to Nashville for the end of the season and Pacific Coast League playoffs. The Brewers say he handled his demotion well, using it as motivation rather than becoming bitter. Nelson's problems began when he broke his hamate bone in his right wrist in 2003, and his power still has yet to bounce back. His strength and potential are still there, but the Brewers believe he has lost the feel for his swing mechanics and his confidence along with it. Nelson has worked hard to get better in the outfield after Prince Fielder's arrival in the system prompted the Brewers to move him to left field. He runs well enough to play the outfield, and his arm is good enough for him to see action in right. He'll try to rediscover his power stroke in Triple-A this year.
Nelson was the organization's top prospect entering 2003 after leading the minors with 49 doubles and 116 RBIs as a 19-year-old. He was shelved for much of that season with a broken hamate bone in his right wrist, but he had a solid Double-A effort last year. A third baseman/pitcher in high school, he began his pro career at first base before moving to left field in 2003. Once he recovered from his wrist injury, Nelson got his smooth, powerful swing back and started driving the ball again. He uses the entire field and hits with power to both gaps. He shows good instincts and an average arm in left field. Everybody, including Nelson, knows what he must do to advance to the majors: improve his plate discipline and cut down on his strikeouts. Though he tries hard and is a smart defender, he has limited range. Nelson is progressing despite missing most of a year of development. He'll head to Triple-A and likely remain there for the entire season to get at-bats.
Nelson was the Brewers' 2002 minor league player of the year after leading the minors with 49 doubles and 116 RBIs at age 19. He broke the hamate bone in his right wrist early in 2003, however, and never recovered. He went to the Arizona Fall League to try to make up for lost time, but struggled there as well. When healthy, Nelson has a solid approach at the plate. He uses the entire field and can hit with power the other way. Switched to left field in an effort to clear the way at first base for Prince Fielder, Nelson made the adjustment. His arm remains strong, thanks to his amateur days as a pitcher. He has good makeup and work ethic. The broken hamate bone robbed Nelson of his power, and he'll have to work to get his quick power stroke back. Like most young hitters, Nelson needs better plate discipline. Though a better athlete than he's given credit for, he has limited speed and range. The Brewers say Nelson will get back on track in 2004. They moved him to Double-A in the second half despite his injury, and he'll probably return there to open the season.
Nelson was considered one of the top high school power hitters in 2001, and he put on an impressive batting-practice display during a predraft workout for the Brewers. He also showed a low-90s fastball from the mound, but he nevertheless lasted until the fourth round of the draft. He failed to homer in 105 at-bats in Rookie ball that summer. Well, his adjustment to wood bats is over. A strong Iowa farmboy, Nelson was Milwaukee's 2002 minor league player of the year after leading the minors with 49 doubles and 116 RBIs. He did seem to run out of gas a little after he was promoted to high Class A High Desert at age 19.
Nelson is the best all-around hitter in the system. He has good actions at the plate and has earned comparisons to Sean Casey. Managers rated Nelson, and not Marlins slugger Jason Stokes, as the top power hitter in the low Class A Midwest League last year. While scouts disagreed, they did concede that Nelson had better pop to the opposite field. Few players can drive the ball as far the other way as Nelson can. His willingness to use the entire field enabled him to put up a strong first full season despite his youth and experience against inferior high school competition. Nelson's arm remains strong and he has good hands, though each is less of an asset at first base than it was when he played third base as an amateur. Class A Beloit manager Don Money considered Nelson a favorite because of his attitude and work ethic.
Pitchers are going to be loathe to challenge Nelson, so Money encouraged him to work the strike zone and take more walks. That lesson hasn't taken yet, at least not to the extent needed. Nelson lacks speed and range, which prompted his move from the hot corner and makes him no more than an ordinary defender. He has a thick body and will have to work to stay in shape, though no one questions his willingness to do so.
Nelson probably will return to the California League at the start of 2003 and could reach Miller Park as early as 2005. The big question is where he'll fit into Milwaukee's lineup. A move to left field could be in Nelson's future.
The Brewers compare Nelson to a young Sean Casey, and Casey doesn't have the pop that Nelson is expected to display once he gets more experience with a wood bat. His raw power sets him apart from most hitters his age, though he didn't homer in 105 at-bats in Rookie ball. Nelson pitched extensively in high school and showed a low-90s fastball, which gives him a better arm than most players at his position. He has soft hands, but his lack of speed prompted his move from third base to first once he turned pro. Milwaukee is stockpiling first basemen, and Nelson will have to hit his way out of the pack there because he doesn't seem able to handle another position. A good spring training could land him a job in low Class A rather than a return to Rookie ball.
Minor League Top Prospects
Nelson's stock has slipped a bit in the last two seasons and he drew widely mixed reviews in 2004. But he's still just 21 and has a potential impact bat. Part of the problem is that SL managers and scouts saw Nelson in the outfield, where his range is very limited. He's there because Prince Fielder is the Brewers' first baseman of the future, but that's also Nelson's best position. At the plate, Nelson shows a nice approach and above-average power, though he had an alarming increase in strikeouts this season. He also needs to improve his approach against lefthanders. Most managers said they expect his offense to improve if he gets more comfortable on defense, however.
After Nelson missed two months with a hamate bone injury, most of his immense power was sapped. He let his pure hitting skills take over as he settled for spraying line drives to the opposite field. When he started getting his strength back, he was promoted to Double-A Huntsville and began turning on balls. Nelson's setup is similar to Jason Giambi and he generates his juice with a short stroke. With Prince Fielder coming up behind him at first base, Nelson moved to left field when he returned from the disabled list. He moves well for a burly 6-foot-2, 220-pounder and hustles on every play. The former prep pitcher has good arm strength.
Considered one of the top power hitters available in the 2001 draft, Nelson didn't homer in 30 games in his first pro summer. His pop returned this year, and while he may not possess more than Stokes, he can drive the ball farther to the opposite field. Nelson led the minors with 49 doubles and 116 RBIs. He has good hitting actions, and Cedar Rapids manager Todd Claus likened Nelson to Sean Casey with considerably more power. He got pitched around at Beloit and needs to develop the patience to take walks. An ordinary defender, he's part of a Brewers first-base glut that includes all-star Richie Sexson in the majors and 2002 first-round pick Prince Fielder, who replaced Nelson at Beloit when he was promoted to high Class A.
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Rated Best Power Prospect in the Midwest League in 2002
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