Jeff Larish Stats & Scouting Report

AB	245
AVG	.224
OBP	.308
SLG	.38
HR	8

Full name Jeffrey David Larish
Born 10/11/1982 in Iowa City, IA
Profile Ht.: 6'2" / Wt.: 200 / Bats: L / Throws: R
School Arizona State
Debut 05/30/2008
Drafted in the 5th round (150th overall) by the Detroit Tigers in 2005 (signed for $220,000).

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Larish has enjoyed a more productive senior year after a down season in 2003, when he was expected to be one of first position players drafted only to slump at the plate and tumble to the 13th round. He became the second player in Arizona State's storied history to drive in 70 runs and walk 70 times in the same season in 2003, but he seemed burdened by high expectations last year and his numbers dropped precipitously--from 18 homers in 2004 to seven, from 78 walks in 2004 to 35, from a .528 on-base percentage in 2004 to .396. He became too selective at the plate and was bothered by a hand injury. He was still offered a reported $660,000 bonus, but he chose to return for his senior year and rebounded to hit 16 home runs. While he exhibited more patience at the plate, he struggled against quality pitchers who negated his power by pounding him inside. He also struggled against anything offspeed and struck out at a higher rate than in any previous season. Scouts have scrutinized his swing as much as any player in the draft, and among the theories regarding his problems are a suspect trigger and the way he blocks off his swing. Some now question whether he'll ever hit with wood. A third baseman as a freshman, a first baseman as a sophomore and a left fielder as a junior, Larish returned to first base this year. But he may not have enough raw power to play there as a pro. Scouts either love or hate Larish, and having Scott Boras as his adviser only adds to the mystery about where he'll be picked.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Larish is a polarizing player among scouts. He has made steady progress through the system, hitting 67 homers in his three full minor league seasons, and acquitted himself well in his big league debut. Larish's greatest asset is raw power to the pull field. Though there's virtually no load with his hands, he can crush fastballs over the inner half of the plate. He's not a threat to steal but has decent speed and good awareness on the bases. He's already an average defender at first base and he could become a plus defender in time. Larish tends to wait for a perfect pitch to hit, which can work against him. He finds himself in a lot of 0-2 counts, and better pitchers were able to exploit his passivity. His detractors don't like his unorthodox batting stance, in which he turns his head to face the pitcher and keeps his hands still prior to the pitch. He has yet to show that he can hit quality strikes over the outside corner, and he struggles with breaking pitches. With Miguel Cabrera entrenched as their long-term first baseman, the Tigers had Larish play third base (which he played as a freshman at Arizona State) in the Arizona Fall League. His rust showed, but his work ethic gives him the chance to become decent at the spot. Barring an injury or trade, Larish likely will start 2009 in Triple-A.
What was true of Larish at Arizona State remains true today. There's no consensus among the scouting community about him, yet everyone seems to have an opinion. Scouts are divided on his unorthodox stance, and many wonder whether his home runs will turn into pop-outs once he reaches the big leagues. He keeps his chin turned completely to his right shoulder and both eyes focused on the pitcher, with his hands remaining still until the ball is on its way to the plate. His style worked just fine in Double-A, as he led the Eastern League with 28 homers and 101 RBIs and was Detroit's minor league player of the year in 2007. Larish has tremendous raw power and can hit the ball out from foul pole to foul pole. He patiently waits for a pitch to hammer and won't give in if pitchers don't challenge him, as evidenced by his 87 walks last season. He has soft hands at first base and a good arm for the position. Though he's selective, Larish won't alter his approach with two strikes, leading to whiffs. He's susceptible to good breaking pitches and gets too pull-happy. The key for him is swinging hard without overswinging. He has below-average speed. There's not a lot of projection involved with Larish. He simply has to keep hitting. Detroit's new everyday first baseman, Carlos Guillen, is signed through 2011, so Larish's path to becoming a big league regular is blocked for now. Larish also played third base and left field in college, but the Tigers will keep him at first in Triple-A.
Expected to be one of the first college hitters drafted in 2004, Larish slumped instead and turned down a $650,000 offer from the Dodgers in the 13th round. He finished fourth in NCAA Division I with 23 homers (including a College World Series-record tying three in one game) in 2005 before signing for $220,000 as a fifth-rounder. He ranked third in the Florida State League in both extra-base hits (54) and walks in his first full season. Larish has strength and leverage in his swing, enabling him to hit the ball out of any part of the park. He's also patient at the plate, willing to take a walk if a pitcher won't give him something he can drive. For a first baseman, he has good athleticism and arm strength. Larish's swing can get long and he can get too pull-conscious. As with many hitters on Detroit's current roster, strikeouts and a lower average will be the tradeoff for his power. He has trouble with changeups away and sliders at his back toe. He's a below-average runner. The Tigers re-signed Sean Casey to a one-year deal, but they have no long-term solution at first. Larish could fill that hole in 2008, but for now he's headed to Double-A.
After an All-America season in 2003, Larish slumped as a junior in 2004 because of a wrist injury. He spurned a $650,000 offer from the Dodgers as a 13th-round pick and returned for his senior season, leading Arizona State to its first College World Series trip since 1998. He tied a CWS record with a three-homer game against Nebraska and hit six in 24 pro games after signing for $220,000. Larish generates big-time power with a swing that has excellent leverage, allowing him to drive balls to any part of the park. He can catch up to good fastballs when healthy. He has a determined approach that allows him to wait pitchers out, seeking a pitch he can drive. The Tigers raved about his work ethic after seeing him in instructional league. He has more athleticism and arm strength than most first basemen. When he struggled in 2004, Larish's swing was called mechanical by scouts, and it can get long. It's not a textbook stroke, but Larish has been effective with it. A long swing and patient approach will translate to plenty of strikeouts. It's easy to live with whiffs if a hitter mashes like Larish can. He's set to join the fast track as a college senior with an advanced approach, starting 2006 in high Class A.

Minor League Top Prospects

EL managers came to have the same feelings about Larish that scouts have had since his college days at Arizona State. Once considered a potentially elite hitter, he has adopted an approach and sells out for home runs. It makes his profile more that of a second-division regular than as a championship-caliber starter. "He's abandoned using the whole field and has very little two-strike approach," one scout said. "He was just trying to jerk balls, but he showed pretty big power, and it's from the left side." His upright stance turns off some, because it precludes him from covering the outer third of the plate and produces serious holes in his swing. The things he can do make Larish a prospect. He's patient, ranking second in the league and sixth in the minors with 87 walks, and he waits out pitchers until he gets a pitch he can drive. His strength and leveraged swing produce well above-average power, as he led the EL with 28 homers and 101 RBIs. He's also an accomplished defender around the bag at first base.