Matt Guerrier Stats & Scouting Report

IP	623
ERA	3.525
WHIP	1.262
BB/9	2.976
SO/9	5.937

Full name Matthew Olson Guerrier
Born 08/02/1978 in Cleveland, OH
Profile Ht.: 6'3" / Wt.: 195 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Kent State
Debut 06/17/2004
Drafted in the 10th round (309th overall) by the Chicago White Sox in 1999.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Guerrier led the minor leagues in wins in 2001, going a combined 18-4 in Double-A and Triple-A for the White Sox. The Pirates acquired him during the final week of spring training last year in a trade for Damaso Marte and second baseman Edwin Yan. While Marte became an effective late-inning reliever in Chicago and Yan led the minors in steals, Guerrier didn't come close to duplicating his success. He did rebound to go 3-1, 2.04 in his last six starts. Guerrier has a nice feel for pitching. He knows how to mix up his offerings, change speeds and attack hitters' weaknesses. He has good command of a fastball that sinks and tops out at 92 mph. His slider is above-average. Guerrier was hurt by big innings last season and has a hard time stopping the bleeding when the opposition starts stringing hits together. He could stand to tighten his curveball and refine his changeup. Guerrier will go back to Triple-A, where he needs to improve in order to avoid getting lost in the shuffle as the Pirates stockpile pitching talent.
At first glance, it doesn't appear there's anything special about Guerrier. But don't be misled. He may not dominate but he wins, compiling a 26- 8, 2.80 record in three pro seasons. He rang up 38 saves in his first 1 1/2 years in the system but pitched even better when given a chance to start, leading the minors with 18 wins in 2001. Guerrier is out of the Greg Maddux mold. His fastball averages only 88-89 mph but is one of four pitches he can throw at any time in the count. His curveball, slider and changeup are all plus pitches and he does a tremendous job of establishing, then following, a plan of attack. He holds runners well and fields his position. He shows signs of being a workhorse. With his velocity, Guerrier doesn't have much margin for error, though. The Sox will watch closely to see how he rebounds from pitching 200 innings (including 20 in the Arizona Fall League) last year. With the major league rotation uncertain beyond Mark Buehrle, Guerrier is a sleeper to watch in spring training. He could do what more heralded prospects like Kip Wells and Jon Garland could not, nailing down a spot in his first try.
A move to the bullpen has allowed Guerrier to climb quickly in the pitching-deep White Sox system. The righthander has 38 saves and a 1.76 ERA in one-and-a-half years as a pro, including a strong showing down the stretch in Double-A last year. He's a sinker-slider pitcher who keeps the ball down, allowing only one homer in 58 innings in 2000. He has averaged more than a strikeout an inning as a pro but will see that ratio drop as he faces better competition. Guerrier has developed a closer's mindset but the real test comes when he starts getting hit, which could happen once he reaches Charlotte, which has short fences. If any winning team will trust a young closer, it's the Sox. If Guerrier continues to progress, they might consider granting Keith Foulke's wish to move into the starting rotation.

Minor League Top Prospects

After debuting in the Southern League as a reliever during the second half of 2000, Guerrier returned as a starter and continued his rapid development. He ranked among the league leaders in wins and ERA when he received a promotion to Triple-A at midseason. A strikeout pitcher in the lower minors, Guerrier proved he could get hitters out without overpowering them. He kept his low-90s fastball and his slider down in the strike zone. His curveball also had a much sharper break than in previous years. "He's a solid control type of pitcher," Shoemaker said. "You could tell with his ability to change speeds, his ability to throw the curveball and the location of his pitches that he will be very effective at higher levels."