The Eastern League's ERA champ in 2001, Stephens has proven himself at every level in spite of velocity that wouldn't get the attention of scouts at a high school game. His fastball slowed after nerve damage in his arm in 1998 at Delmarva, and it hasn't full returned. The comparison to Greg Maddux is an obvious one because Stephens is a surgeon on the mound. He gets hitters out by changing speeds and putting the ball exactly where he wants it with a deceptive delivery. He essentially has six different changeups, making his 82-86 mph fastball effective. His curveball is slow with a big break, making it look almost like a softball pitch. Though his velocity has come back a bit, Stephens is still a soft tosser with a small margin for error. He'll have to prove himself with every start. Stephens will return to Rochester, where he put up the highest ERA of his career last year. If he proves he can get Triple-A hitters out, he could get the improbable callup to Baltimore. The Orioles have given an opportunity to Josh Towers, who has a similar fastball.
Rarely will you find a righthander who throws in the low 80s get any consideration as a prospect. But rarely will you find someone who posts numbers like Stephens has. He sustained an injury similar to whiplash in 1998 at Delmarva when he tried to field a bunt. The injury damaged nerves in his arm and he missed the rest of the year. When he returned, his velocity had dropped from 89 mph and still hasn't returned. What he has is pinpoint control of the fastball, a plus curveball and plus changeup. He throws all three with the same motion and arm action but different velocity and movement. He'll have to prove himself almost with every start, and he'll have to be perfect with his location. He also must stay healthy. He missed time in 2000 with a strained hip flexor, and an impinged nerve in his right hand late in the year cost him a spot on Australia's Olympic team. But he's still young and it's possible his velocity could come back. If that happens, watch out.
Minor League Top Prospects
Stephens dominates hitters though his fastball arrives 10 mph slower than Silva's. He led the EL with a 1.84 ERA and tossed a no-hitter while rarely topping the mid-80s. "He's got a sneaky fastball," said Dorante, "but it may be tough for him to pitch in the big leagues with that changeup and that rainbow he throws for a curveball." His overall stuff isn't impressive, but his results are. In five pro seasons, Stephens has gone 36-25, 2.73 with 646 strikeouts in 570 innings. At least one scout believes in him. "He's like Josh Towers. He's a magician out there," the scout said. "I've sat with other scouts who say this guy is not a prospect. But batters don't get good swings at him and to me, that makes him a prospect. Very few pitchers can throw two or three changeups in a row and get you out, but he can."
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Rated Best Breaking Pitch in the International League in 2002
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