Taylor Guerrieri

Organization Prospect Rankings

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  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #17 prospect in 2017
  Guerrieri has taken a circuitous route through the Rays system. He was a first-round pick on the strength of his upper 90s fastball in high school but has never shown that velocity as a professional, and he's endured both Tommy John surgery and a 50-game suspension for a drug of abuse on his way to the upper minors. Now, Guerrieri is more of a pitch-to-contact type coming off a successful year but not overwhelming year at Double-A, with only 89 strikeouts in 146 innings. His fastball operates mostly at 89-93 with late sinking action, allowing him to become an effective groundball pitcher. His best offspeed pitch is his curveball, which shows late depth to induce poor contact even when hitters recognize it. Scouts are split on his ultimate role. Some are encouraged by Guerrieri's changeup and control to project him as a back-of-the-rotation starter, while others are curious how Guerrieri's stuff would play in the bullpen. While he hasn't been the front-of-the-rotation cornerstone the Rays thought they were drafting, Guerrieri is still on the 40-man roster and will be on the cusp of the majors with Triple-A Durham in 2017.
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  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #7 prospect in 2016
  Guerrieri tantalized the amateur scouting community with a powerful fastball that reached 98 mph, prompting the Rays to select him 24th overall in 2011. His path to the majors has hit multiple speed bumps, including Tommy John surgery in July 2013 and then a 50-game suspension for recreational drug use in 2014. He returned to the mound in mid-May 2015 and reached Double-A Montgomery in late July before joining the 40-man roster in November. Guerrieri has morphed into a different pitcher as he has matured. Previously known for his power fastball and curveball, he rounded out his arsenal and showed improved command in 2015. His post-surgery fastball velocity stabilized in the low 90s, and he generates plus movement on the pitch, with late sink and armside run that helped him record an elite 2.7 groundout-to-airout ratio in 2015. Guerrieri can spin two tight breaking balls, a curveball and a slider that flash above-average potential. His changeup also showed significant growth, and it gives him an extra weapon against lefthanded batters. Guerrieri fully hit his stride late in 2015, when he put two years between him and elbow surgery. His pitch repertoire is deep enough and control sharp enough to profile as a starter, potentially a No. 3 if he regains the velocity of his youth.
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  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #12 prospect in 2015
  The 24th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Guerrieri returned to the mound in July 2014, making five starts in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League 11 months after having Tommy John surgery. He ranked as the No. 18 prospect in the low Class A Midwest League in 2013, the same year he was suspended 50 games for testing positive for a drug of abuse in September. Scouts love Guerrieri's lean frame and electric arm. He has the mindset of a power pitcher and works off his fastball that was clocked as high as 98 mph in high school but has resided in the low 90s and touched 95 since signing. What makes his fastball a plus offering is its hard, late sink, good armside run and his ability to throw it on both sides of the plate. Guerrieri also has a plus curveball that he struggled to command just prior to having surgery. Featuring late, hard break, the curve sits in the upper 70s and serves as an out-pitch. His changeup has been inconsistent, but he demonstrates good feel for it and could develop it into an above-average offering. Guerrieri should be at full health in 2015, when he will spend most of the season at high Class A Charlotte at age 22. Having shown added maturity and the potential to throw three pitches for strikes, he could develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter at the major league level.
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  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #3 prospect in 2014
  The 24th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Guerrieri appeared to hit his stride in the low Class A Midwest League in June when he put together a 22-ininng scoreless stretch. In July, however, the Rays pulled him from the Futures Game with elbow soreness, and he had Tommy John surgery in late July. Adding insult to injury, he was suspended 50 games for testing positive for a drug of abuse in late September. Guerrieri has an electric arm and an ideal pitcher's frame. Clocked as high as 98 mph in high school, his fastball has resided in the 91-93 mph range while touching 95 in pro ball, with hard, late sink and good armside run. His above-average curveball has a sharp drop, making it a swing-and-miss offering. His changeup should be at least a solid-average pitch. He works both sides of the plate and is not afraid to pitch inside, as evidenced by his 10 hit batters in 2013. Worries about Guerrieri's makeup dropped him in the draft, and the drug suspension reinforces those concerns. He will miss most if not all of the 2014 season due to his injury. He will be 22 when he returns to the mound in 2015 and should remain on course to develop into a potential No. 2 or 3 starter.
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  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #3 prospect in 2013
  Though he had one of the most electric arms in the 2011 draft, Guerrieri lasted 24 picks because of questions about his maturity. The Rays believed those concerns were exaggerated and were thrilled to land him for $1.6 million. He rewarded them with an impressive pro debut in 2012, ranking as the top prospect in the short-season New York-Penn League. Clocked as high as 98 mph in high school, Guerrieri pitched at 90-95 with his fastball in his first pro summer. His two-seamer has hard, late sink and armside run, and he does an excellent job of spotting it on both sides of the plate and down in the strike zone. His sharp 77-81 mph curveball has good depth and is a swing-and-miss offering at times. His changeup has a chance to give him a third plus pitch as he incorporates it more into his repertoire. Guerrieri has a solid delivery and ideal pitcher's body, and he walked just five batters in his 12 starts. He displays a strong competitive drive and there were no issues with his makeup in 2012. A potential frontline starter, Guerrieri should open 2013 at low Class A Bowling Green. The Rays usually develop their high school pitchers slowly, but he could force their hand if he repeats his New-York Penn League performance when he opens next year in a full-season league.
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  Ranked Tampa Bay Rays #4 prospect in 2012
  Guerrieri had one of the best arms in the 2011 draft, yet the Rays were able to nab him with the 24th overall pick. He slid somewhat because of questions regarding his makeup that arose after he switched high schools for his senior year. Tampa Bay believed the situation was overblown and signed him for $1.6 million at the Aug. 15 deadline. Guerrieri has matured physically in the last year, allowing him to repeat his mechanics more consistently and adding 6-7 mph to his fastball. With a clean arm action and a high three-quarters arm slot, he delivers easy gas. His fastball sits at 93-96 mph with good life and has been clocked up to 98. It sinks and runs when he throws to the right side of the plate and features heavy sink when he works the left side. Guerrieri's 11-to-5 curveball, which he throws with his middle finger tucked under his index finger, is also a power pitch in the low 80s. He also throws a cutter and changeup that show promise despite being rarely used in high school. Improving his overall command is his main priority. Guerrieri has the potential to become a frontline starter, and the Rays have an impressive track record of developing young pitchers. He'll probably open 2012 in extended spring training and make his pro debut at Rookie-level Princeton in June.

Minor League Top Prospects

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  Ranked Midwest League #18 prospect in 2013
  No MWL pitcher was on a better roll heading into the all-star break than Guerrieri. He was working on a 22-inning scoreless streak that stretched over four starts. But then it was over. After his first start of July, Guerrieri received two weeks off and was pulled from the Futures Game. He lasted just two scoreless innings on July 15 before being lifted, and soon after he had Tommy John surgery. Before the surgery, Guerrieri?s fastball sat 91-93 mph, touching 95 with sink. He has the makings of three out-pitches thanks to an average changeup and above-average curveball. Guerrieri will have to deal with the year-long rehabilitation after surgery, and he?ll have to prove his stuff has bounced back. Prior to his elbow injury, he had the makings of a mid-rotation starter.
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  Ranked New York-Penn League #1 prospect in 2012
  Regarded as one of the best arms in the 2011 draft, Guerrieri slipped to the 24th overall pick in part because of maturity questions, and signed for $1.6 million. He maintained his focus on and off the mound in his pro debut this summer, and while he didn't bump 98 mph like he did in high school, he still worked at 90-95 mph with his two-seam fastball. Even when it sat at 90-92, one scout graded it as a plus pitch because of its hard, late sink, armside run and deception, not to mention his ability to spot it at the knees to both corners. "Just the pitchability at 19 years of age is impressive," Hudson Valley manager Jared Sandberg said. "He's got a different maturity level on the mound. He's a competitor and he knows how to pitch." Guerrieri works primarily with his sinker, though he also mixes in a four-seam fastball with riding life. He shows a plus downer curveball at 77-81 mph with good depth, giving him a swing-and-miss pitch against righties or lefties. He also has good control of an average changeup that has a chance to become a plus pitch as he starts to use it more.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #62 prospect in 2013
• Ranked Baseball America's #90 prospect in 2012

• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: Though he had one of the most electric arms in the 2011 draft, Guerrieri lasted 24 picks because of questions about his maturity. The Rays believed those concerns were exaggerated and were thrilled to land him for $1.6 million. He rewarded them with an impressive pro debut in 2012, ranking as the top prospect in the short-season New York-Penn League. Scouting Report: Clocked as high as 98 mph in high school, Guerrieri pitched at 90-95 with his fastball in his first pro summer. His two-seamer has hard, late sink and armside run, and he does an excellent job of spotting it on both sides of the plate and down in the strike zone. His sharp 77-81 mph curveball has good depth and is a swing-and-miss offering at times. His changeup has a chance to give him a third plus pitch as he incorporates it more into his repertoire. Guerrieri has a solid delivery and ideal pitcher's body, and he walked just five batters in his 12 starts. He displays a strong competitive drive and there were no issues with his makeup in 2012. The Future: A potential frontline starter, Guerrieri should open 2013 at low Class A Bowling Green. The Rays usually develop their high school pitchers slowly, but he could force their hand if he repeats his New-York Penn League performance when he opens next year in a full-season league.
• December, 2011 Scouting Report
  Background: Guerrieri had one of the best arms in the 2011 draft, yet the Rays were able to nab him with the 24th overall pick. He slid somewhat because of questions regarding his makeup that arose after he switched high schools for his senior year. Tampa Bay believed the situation was overblown and signed him for $1.6 million at the Aug. 15 deadline.
  
  Scouting Report: Guerrieri has matured physically in the last year, allowing him to repeat his mechanics more consistently and adding 6-7 mph to his fastball. With a clean arm action and a high three-quarters arm slot, he delivers easy gas. His fastball sits at 93-96 mph with good life and has been clocked up to 98. It sinks and runs when he throws to the right side of the plate and features heavy sink when he works the left side. Guerrieri's 11-to-5 curveball, which he throws with his middle finger tucked under his index finger, is also a power pitch in the low 80s. He also throws a cutter and changeup that show promise despite being rarely used in high school. Improving his overall command is his main priority.
  
  The Future: Guerrieri has the potential to become a frontline starter, and the Rays have an impressive track record of developing young pitchers. He'll probably open 2012 in extended spring training and make his pro debut at Rookie-level Princeton in June.