Drafted in the 4th round (126th overall) by the Kansas City Royals in 2011 (signed for $695,000).
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Smith emerged as a scouts' favorite in South Florida when he was the top performer in the area this spring as a power pitcher and solid hitter. His future will be on the mound, whether in pro ball or in college at Florida. Smith was a showcase regular the last two years and showed average fastball velocity from a quick-armed, small-framed body. He has pushed that heater up to 95 mph at times this spring, though it still sits 88-92. He has good feel for spinning a breaking ball and has depth and some power on the curveball, which at times gets slurvy. Smith could be a tough sell to crosscheckers because of his size--he's listed at 6 feet, 180 pounds--but he does other things to endear him to evaluators. He keeps a quick, aggressive tempo, pitches with swagger, competes hard and has excellent baseball instincts. He's athletic and repeats his compact delivery. Some scouts point to Smith's family and expect him to get more physical. He could go out in the first three rounds.
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To watch Smith pitch is to respect him. Not many short righthanders have as much success as he does with a below-average fastball--he generally sits 89-90 mph--thanks to a fearless approach, a compact, clean delivery and an ability to stay a step ahead of the hitter. Scouts love his aggressive approach. Smith attacks hitters with his fastball, a plus curveball and a fringy changeup. Acquired from the Royals for outfielder Justin Maxwell at the 2013 trade deadline, Smith impressed the Astros when, after he was knocked out of the game in the first inning of his high Class A Lancaster debut, he bounced back to throw a complete-game shutout at High Desert in his encore appearance. Smith has flashed 95 mph briefly in the past, but he now touches 92 at his best. His body is nearly maxed out, so he's not likely to gain the velocity that scouts once thought was possible. The track record for finesse righthanders who pitch off their changeup isn't a great one, but scouts see Smith as a potential No. 5 starter because of his excellent feel for pitching. He'll have to prove it every step up the ladder, including in 2014 at Double-A Corpus Christi.
The Royals nabbed a pair of high school righthanders with consecutive picks and over-slot bonuses in 2011, but Bryan Brickhouse (third round, $1.5 million) and Smith (fourth, $695,000) couldn't be more different. Where Brickhouse is a big, raw hard thrower, Smith is 5-foot-11, as polished as they come and generally works at 88-91 mph with his fastball. What he lacks in stature and velocity, Smith makes up for with advanced feel for pitching, solid secondary stuff and an athletic, compact delivery that he repeats well. He can handcuff hitters with his plus curveball and average changeup, but he still pitches off his fastball. He changes hitters' eye levels by working up and down, and he is comfortable locating to both sides of the plate. Smith touches 93-94 mph pretty regularly, and some scouts think he could gain a tick more velocity as he matures. Even if his stuff doesn't get firmer, his savvy should help him move quickly. He needed just one start to earn a promotion from Rookie-level Idaho Falls last June, and he's ready for high Class A as a 20-year-old with just 14 pro starts of experience. He has a ceiling of a No. 3 starter.
After going high school heavy in the first three rounds in 2011, the Royals wanted to pick a more polished, less risky player with their fourth-round pick. So they took Smith. Yes, he's a high school pitcher, but Kansas City viewed him as comparable to a college arm because he's so advanced. It took $695,000 to sign him away from his Florida commitment. Smith's fastball grades as slightly above-average, sitting at 88-92 mph and touching 94. It won't blow hitters away but he locates it well. He has tremendous feel for his breaking ball, a hard slurve with good depth that resembles a curveball more than a slider. He also is ahead of the game in terms of developing a changeup, as he already has the confidence to throw it in any count. Smith has good control because he repeats his compact delivery well. He works quickly and he rarely gets flustered on the mound. Though he has yet to make his pro debut, Smith is advanced enough that he could reach low Class A Kane County at some point in 2012. He has the upside of a No. 3 starter.
Minor League Top Prospects
Smith signed late last summer for $695,000--the biggest bonus in the fourth round a year ago--so the Royals planned on having him make pro debut in the Rookie-level Pioneer League. When he fanned 11 over five innings in his first start there, they immediately promoted him to Kane County and he responded with six no-hit innings in his initial outing. He earned pitcher-of-the-week honors in both leagues simultaneously. While he lacks size, Smith is athletic and his quick arm works well, generating fastballs that sit at 88-91 mph and top out at 93. His plus curveball is his best pitch and he also has an average changeup. His ability to repeat his delivery results in advanced control and command for his age.
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