Bubba Nelson Stats & Scouting Report

IP	877
ERA	3.859
WHIP	1.295
BB/9	3.458
SO/9	7.645

Full name Kenneth Daniel Nelson
Born 08/26/1981 in Clinton, MD
Profile Ht.: 6'0" / Wt.: 210 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Riverdale Baptist
Drafted in the 2nd round (51st overall) by the Atlanta Braves in 2000 (signed for $675,000).

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

After leading the minors with a 1.66 ERA in 2002, Nelson ranked sixth in the Southern League in ERA last year before dominating in 11 relief appearances for Triple-A Richmond. He moved to the bullpen in case the Braves needed him for the playoffs. Nelson has impressive life on all his pitches. His heavy heater sits in the 89-93 mph range and shows outstanding movement, not unlike Greg Maddux' slower fastball. He also has a nasty hard slider that looks at times like a slurve. Command, particularly with his fastball, remains Nelson's greatest problem. While he keeps his pitches down, he must improve the location of all his pitches in the strike zone. Though his changeup continues to develop, it's still inconsistent. Nelson is on the verge of reaching the majors. He'll return to the rotation in 2004 in Triple-A, and could see some big league action by the end of the season. Atlanta's bullpen is unsettled, so that could be where he gets his first opportunity.
In 2001, his first full season, Nelson went 9-2 in the first half at Macon but lost six of his last nine decisions. He avoided such inconsistency last year, leading the minors with a 1.66 ERA and holding opponents to a .197 average. Nelson is a great competitor who allows the natural nasty movement of his pitches to work for him. His heavy fastball sits at 91-94 mph and induces plenty of grounders. His two-seamer has improved since he added the pitch in 2001. His strikeout pitch is a hard slider, and he's most consistent with a plus curveball he throws any time in the count. When he struggles, Nelson gets caught in between his curveball and slider, which causes his breaking pitches to flatten. He should avoid the problem when he gains more consistency with his arm slot. His changeup could use refinement. The Braves believe Nelson is on the verge of being ready for the big leagues. While he could be the first pitcher from Atlanta's heralded 2000 draft class to reach the majors, he'll open 2003 in Double-A.
Along with Adam Wainwright and Zach Miner, Nelson is yet another top pitching prospect from Atlanta's 2000 draft class. He led the Gulf Coast League team with 54 strikeouts in 45 innings in 2000, so he already has 208 strikeouts in 195 professional innings. He showed more consistency as 2001 progressed and led the Macon staff in wins. Nelson impresses scouts with his heavy 93-95 mph fastball and competitive spirit. His changeup and curveball also should develop into plus pitches. Braves scouts thought he had the best breaking ball among the pitchers they scouted in 2000. No longer a raw thrower, Nelson has an excellent idea of how to pitch, and his progress appears to be on the verge of accelerating. He was a heavily scouted third baseman in high school, so he still is learning the nuances of pitching, particularly in working both sides of the plate. He tries to be too fine at times in spite of his stuff, often causing him to work from behind in the count. Nelson is expected to continue his steady climb by beginning 2002 at Myrtle Beach.
Nelson is another pitcher the Braves consider to be a first-round talent. In fact, one of Atlanta's crosscheckers liked Nelson better than Wainwright on draft day. Nelson touches 94 mph on the radar gun with a heavy, sinking fastball. It has natural plus movement due to a release point that is slightly above sidearm. Considered a potential third baseman in the professional ranks, Nelson has added velocity since he signed because he focused only on pitching. The Atlanta scouting department rated Nelson's curveball as the best breaking ball it saw among the 2000 draft class, while his changeup ranked near the top among high school pitchers. He also has above-average command, particularly for a pitcher fresh out of high school. Nelson got off to a rocky start before putting the pieces together late in the Gulf Coast League and during instructional league, including one game in which he struck out seven straight batters while using all three pitches. He needs to continue to challenge hitters, use both sides of the plate and get ahead early in the count. Nelson has proven to be advanced for his age, and he could move quickly through the system. His next stop is Class A Macon's starting rotation.

Minor League Top Prospects

Fresh off the minor league ERA title (1.66) in 2002, Nelson continued his big league ascent with a solid Double-A season. He's the opposite of Wainwright physically with a shorter, more solid 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame. He also has a different approach, working more on the inner and outer halves of the plate while Wainwright works up and down. Nelson's low-90s sinker, power slider and resilient arm prompted the parent Braves to promote Nelson in August and install him in their Triple-A Richmond bullpen. He could thrive in a middle-relief role, especially matched up against righthanders. He held them to a .213 average, while lefties took advantage of his inconsistent changeup to hit .292 against him. "I liked him best of Greenville's pitchers because he kept the ball down and really competed," DeJohn said. "He had good movement on his fastball and slider. I liked his mound presence. He was a bulldog out there."
After lowly Frederick pounded Burnett in a mid-August game, Nelson emerged as the league's ERA champion. Like Burnett and Wainwright, he was an early high school pick from the 2000 draft. But those two went in the first round, while Nelson was a second-rounder. His stuff is just a shade behind Wainwright's. Nelson throws in the low 90s with very heavy action on his fastball. He moves his pitches, which also include a curveball that's currently ahead of his changeup, wherever he wants in the strike zone. "He pitched some great games against us," Kubiak said. "He's very, very aggressive with that fastball, and it has good sink to it. Plus he has a tough little breaking ball."