Drafted in the 2nd round (52nd overall) by the Cincinnati Reds in 2006 (signed for $670,000).
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Tennessee has developed a pipeline from South Florida, and Watson came to Knoxville after a celebrated prep career in Miami that included a stint on USA Baseball's youth national team. He was a 21st-round pick by the Giants in 2003, and blossomed into a hard-throwing reliever with an aggressive approach, after splitting time between the pen and Tennessee's rotation. Watson has two above-average pitches in his fastball and knuckle-curveball and can dial his fastball up to 94 mph, pitching at 90-92. His knuckle-curveball is a hard, tumbling pitch at 82-85 mph. Like his fastball, his secondary stuff is inconsistent, due in part to a lack of focus on the mound and inconsistent mechanics. Watson's arm works well, but he falls off the mound and spins out of his delivery, which leads to an inconsistent release point and erratic command. He's not timid, but his concentration seems to drift from outing to outing. He has some feel for a slider and changeup, and can be a successful reliever if he learns to command his two top pitches.
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The Reds may have drafted a future closer during the 2006 draft, though it was supposed to be Watson, not 10th-rounder Josh Roenicke. Watson has had a much bumpier path in pro ball. He has struggled with his command and his weight, but there are still times when he shows flashes of the talent that made him a secondround pick. Command is his big problem, as he too often falls behind in the count, and his 92-94 mph fastball is relatively straight, which makes it hittable if batters can sit on it. He has a tendency to fly open early in his delivery, which leads to pitches missing up in the zone. His conditioning always has been a problem, though he did get into better shape as the 2008 season went on. Watson's knuckle-curve is an out pitch when he gets ahead of hitters, but when his fingers get sweaty, he loses the feel for the pitch. He throws it sparingly and has been forced to rely more on his slider. This will be a big year for Watson, who needs to show that he can develop the consistency that has been lacking.
Watson had top-five-round talent coming out of high school, but concerns about his signability and his makeup caused him to slip to the 21st round. He turned down the Giants to attend Tennessee, where he began his career as a weekend starter and ended it as the team's closer. After drafting him in the second round, the Reds have moved him back into the rotation, though he still projects as a reliever in the big leagues. Watson's fastball sat at 89-92 mph last season when he was a starter, though he added 2 mph when he worked out of the bullpen late in the year to keep his innings down. He showed improved command of his heavy fastball to both sides of the plate. His knuckle-curve was his calling card in college, but he struggled with the feel of it in 2007 and largely junked it in favor of an average slider. He also throws a fringy changeup. Watson's biggest concern is his body. He has a tendency to put on weight and needs to take a more professional attitude and stay in shape. Because of his weight issues, he has a tendency to wear down. Cincinnati has to decide how long it wants to leave him in the rotation. He'll move quicker once he moves to the bullpen for good, and could start the season in Double-A and possibly finish it in the majors if that shift comes in 2008.
Watson teamed with fellow Reds 2006 draftee Chris Valaika on the U.S. national team that won the 2001 World Youth Championships in Mexico. At Tennessee, Watson began his career as a member of the weekend rotation but shifted to the closer's role as a sophomore. He and Todd Helton are the only Volunteers to record 10 saves in a season. Watson has two plus offerings. He has a 92-93 mph fastball that touches 95, and he pairs it with an 82-85 mph knuckle-curve that's a true out pitch. It's a hard tumbler with tilt and depth. He goes after hitters with an aggressive approach that serves him well in a closer's role. Watson's mechanics are inconsistent, so his pitches are as well. He sometimes struggles to locate his fastball, which is why he got hammered in low Class A. He'll need to come up with a changeup if he's going to be a starter, and his slider needs improvement as well. With two above-average pitches, a tough mindset and some effort to his delivery, Watson has strengths and weaknesses that seem to point him to a future in the bullpen. For now, however, the Reds will let him build up innings and refine his arsenal as a starter. He'll probably return to low Class A to open 2007.
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