Drafted in the 3rd round (93rd overall) by the Baltimore Orioles in 2005 (signed for $415,000).
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Erbe is the best product from Baltimore's McDonough High since ex-big leaguer Ken Cloude, a sixth-round pick of the Mariners in 1993. He was outdueled in an early-season showdown with righthander Steve Johnson that attracted more than 50 scouts and was overshadowed by Johnson most of the spring. While Johnson spun several low-hit games and dominated his competition, Erbe went just 2-5, 1.86 with 86 strikeouts and 23 walks in 49 innings. But scouts say Erbe has a better arm and better pitcher's frame, making him the stronger candidate to be selected in the first four or five rounds. He was clocked at 83 mph as a high school sophomore, 90 as a high school junior and elevated his velocity into the 93-96 range last summer playing against 21-and-under competition for the Maryland Orioles. Erbe had expectations of being picked in the first two or three rounds at the outset of 2005 but he's had difficulty repeating his mid-90s arm strength this spring. He also has three other workable pitches, a slider, circle change and curve, but his breaking balls lack consistency. Erbe committed to Miami and could be a major signability risk if he should fall below the first three or four rounds.
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The Orioles were counting on Erbe to be part of the wave of young pitching that has surged into Baltimore, but he had a disastrous 2010 season. He went 0-10, 5.74 before the Orioles shut him down, and then had surgery in August to repair a torn labrum. Before his injury, Erbe had been held back by his inability to develop an effective secondary pitch to complement his fastball. He works in the low 90s, touching 94 mph with good life. But advanced hitters have teed off on his below-average slider. His changeup is a fringy pitch as well. Erbe battled his mechanics, leading to inconsistent command and ultimately his injury. The hope is that he'll come out of his rehab with a cleaner delivery. He started a throwing program in December, and the Orioles are optimistic he will bounce back like Chorye Spoone and Jim Hoey have after similar procedures. The optimistic view is that he'll be ready by spring training, but he probably won't return to game action until May or June.
The Orioles have taken a patient approach with Erbe because they've had do. After a strong 2008 when he led the Carolina League with 151 strikeouts, Erbe missed nearly two months last year with shoulder tendinitis. He returned to action in June and made three starts in the Arizona Fall League, and the Orioles added him to the 40-man roster. When he returned to action, he worked at 91-92 mph and touched 94 with good, hard late life down in the zone. He has thrown harder in the past. His slider should be an above-average pitch in time, and he made strides with his now-average changeup as well. Fastball command and durability remain the tipping points that will determine how good Erbe can be. He tends to pitch up in the strike zone, leaving him vulnerable to homers and walks. The Orioles smoothed out his mechanics a couple of years ago and will give him every opportunity to remain a starter. Erbe will compete for a spot in the Norfolk rotation in spring training. Because of his track record and the large group of starter candidates in the organization, it seems likely that he'll end up in the bullpen long-term.
Erbe went back to high Class A after making mechanical adjustments in instructional league following a rough 2007 season. He cut two runs off his ERA and led the Carolina League in strikeouts (151) and baserunners per nine innings (1.2), though he also topped the league by giving up 21 home runs. Erbe showed progress in just about every aspect of pitching and became more consistent with his smoothed-out windup. His fastball still touches the mid-90s, though he usually works in the low 90s, and his slider was more consistently a plus pitch. His two-seamer showed better sink and life and allowed him to work down in the zone more. He finished second in the CL in innings and learned how to pace himself better. While Erbe has improved his command, it's still not where it needs to be, and he too frequently leaves the ball up, as his home run total and 0.8 groundout/airout ratio show. His changeup has improved but still is a fringe-average pitch, and he needs to use it more. He still has some effort in his delivery and can be stubborn in taking instruction. Erbe will have two plus pitches if he continues along his development path. If he can bring his changeup along with them and improve his command, he's a big league starter. If not, he should be a late-inning reliever. He'll get every chance to remain in the rotation, moving to Double-A to open 2009.
There's no getting around Erbe's numbers for 2007, as he got knocked around all year and reached the system's single-inning pitch limit of 30 five times in his 25 starts. But the Orioles focus on how he made every turn in the rotation as a 19-year-old in the Carolina League. Erbe's stuff is still there, led by a mid-90s fastball that peaks at 96 mph, a slider with bite that's sometimes a plus pitch and an improving changeup. He shows good aptitude for his craft and for taking instruction. He smoothed out his delivery in instructional league. Command problems are the root of Erbe's struggles, and Baltimore thinks that comes down to being able to repeat his delivery and improving his overall confidence and mound presence. When he starts doubting his stuff, he tries to nibble and winds up leaving pitches over the middle of the plate. It wouldn't be surprising for Erbe to go back to high Class A to have some success, but his progress in instructional league gives him a chance to make the Double-A rotation out of spring training. He needs to show better command if he wants to stay in a starting role.
Erbe continues to look like a steal as a third-rounder who signed for $415,000 in 2005. The Orioles' only real goal for him in 2006 was to take his turn every fifth day, and he handled that with aplomb. He was limited to five innings or 85-90 pitches a start and was on an even tighter leash after he reached the 100-innings mark, but he still ranked fourth among starters in full-season leagues with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. Erbe works anywhere from 92-97 mph with his fastball, sitting around 94-95, and he can locate it on both sides of the plate. His slider is also a potential plus pitch when he commands it. Orioles officials have been impressed by his demeanor and mound presence, which is advanced for his age and has been compared to that of Jim Palmer. The Orioles worked with Erbe to resolve a hop in his delivery, as he tried to get maximum extension with his front foot, and they're happy with his mechanics now. His changeup is a quality pitch but still needs work. He prefers to work to the outer third of the plate, so he needs to show he can come inside as well. The Erbe blueprint is going exactly as planned so far. He'll play the entire 2007 season at 19, opening the year at high Class A Frederick.
Because of his commitment to Miami and an inconsistent senior season, most teams weren't sure where to draft Erbe. The Orioles had a good feel for him because he played for a summer travel team coached by area scout Dean Albany, so they took him in the third round and signed him for $415,000. He emerged as the best pitching prospect in the Appalachian League. After seeing Erbe pitch last summer, the Orioles feel like he might have the best pure stuff in the 2005 high school draft class. He threw his fastball from 94-98 mph most of the summer, and the ball explodes out of his hand. He has the long, lanky pitcher's body that scouts love, and a funky delivery that makes him deceptive to hitters. Erbe's secondary pitches need work. His breaking ball is above-average at times and is usually in the zone, but it's inconsistent. He shows a feel for a changeup but never has had to use it much. Erbe has an incredible amount of ability, and the next couple of seasons will show his ability to harness it. He'll open the season in low Class A and will play all of 2006 at age 18.
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Erbe went 6-8, 6.26 at Frederick as a 19-year-old last season, resisting adjustments to his delivery and wanting to pitch solely off his fastball--a recipe that worked in the lower minors but not against more advanced hitters. Erbe worked hard in the offseason to avoid a repeat of the humbling experience and shined in his second tour of the CL, leading the league with 151 strikeouts in as many innings. He still pitched off his 92-94 mph four-seam fastball, but Erbe incorporated a two-seamer with sink and life that allowed him to pitch down in the zone. He also mixed in a changeup more regularly and a much-improved slider. "Sometimes you have to get your nose bloodied a bit before you can have success," an Orioles official said. "He's a little hard-headed, a little bull-headed, but those qualities are OK. He'll be 21 in Double-A next year. He's in very good shape."
Judging simply by Erbe's numbers, 2007 appears to be a lost season. His 6.26 ERA was one of the highest in the minors, and he maxed out at the Orioles' single-inning pitch limit of 30 five times in 25 starts. Despite his struggles, Erbe sat at 92-94 mph and topped out at 96 with his fastball. His upper-80s slider showed good tilt and bite, and his changeup got better. Lack of command is what caused Erbe fits and he eventually could land in the bullpen if he can't improve it. "When he starts to get careful, that's when he gets in trouble," Orioles farm director David Stockstill said. "His stuff starts flattening out a little bit and he'll leave pitches up, leave pitches in the middle of the zone. Sometimes he just wanted to do a whole lot more than he was capable of."
The Orioles were very cautious with Erbe, and understandably so. The 6-foot-4 righthander sits at 94 mph with his fastball, can touch 98 and doesn't turn 19 until Christmas. Erbe didn't exceed five innings in any of his 28 starts and averaged little more than four innings per outing. But when he was on the mound, he used his heat to strike out 10.38 batters per nine innings, fourth-best among starters in full-season leagues. His No. 2 pitch is an equally devastating slider that ranges from 82-86 mph and was arguably the best in the league when it was on. Erbe has a violent delivery with a very long landing. He also throws across his body, causing his slider to flatten out at times. He uses his changeup only rarely, but if he doesn't master it he has enough weapons to make him a dominant big league closer.
Erbe eschewed a commitment to Miami to signed with his hometown Orioles as a third-round pick. Appy managers couldn't believe he lasted that long in the draft after seeing his fastball, which sat at 91-94 mph and peaked at 97. At 17 he was the youngest pitcher to qualify for this list, and also the most promising. "Erbe could be electric," Princeton manager Jamie Nelson said. "He's not done growing and he could still add to his frame. He's got something of a funky delivery: He stays tall, then jumps at you. It looks like everything's coming at you at once, and it probably makes him deceptive to the hitters." At times Erbe showed a sharp slider but he had difficulty commanding the pitch. Because he didn't need to use a changeup much as an amateur, he's still learning how to maintain his arm speed with the pitch. He still had no trouble in the Appy League, striking out more than half the batters he faced and limiting them to a .103 average.
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Rated Best Fastball in the Baltimore Orioles in 2007
Rated Best Fastball in the South Atlantic League in 2006
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Erbe went back to high Class A after making mechanical adjustments in instructional league following a rough 2007 season. He cut two runs off his ERA and led the Carolina League in strikeouts (151) and baserunners per nine innings (1.2), though he also topped the league by giving up 21 home runs. Erbe showed progress in just about every aspect of pitching and became more consistent with his smoothed-out windup. His fastball still touches the mid-90s, though he usually works in the low 90s, and his slider was more consistently a plus pitch. His two-seamer showed better sink and life and allowed him to work down in the zone more. He finished second in the CL in innings and learned how to pace himself better. While Erbe has improved his command, it's still not where it needs to be, and he too frequently leaves the ball up, as his home run total and 0.8 groundout/airout ratio show. His changeup has improved but still is a fringe-average pitch, and he needs to use it more. He still has some effort in his delivery and can be stubborn in taking instruction. Erbe will have two plus pitches if he continues along his development path. If he can bring his changeup along with them and improve his command, he's a big league starter. If not, he should be a late-inning reliever. He'll get every chance to remain in the rotation, moving to Double-A to open 2009.
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