Drafted in the 1st round (6th overall) by the Washington Nationals in 2001 (signed for $2,650,000).
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The sky's the limit for Karp. He has a prototype pitcher's body (6-foot-5, 195 pounds) and three quality pitches: a 91-94 mph fastball, an outstanding changeup (his best pitch) and a solid curveball. But through high school, Team USA and three years at UCLA, he has shown only flashes of fulfilling his considerable potential. He didn't make the progress this spring that scouts were hoping to see. He either came out of games early because of pitch counts or missed starts with minor injuries. Unlike the other top college pitching prospects, he didn't attack hitters with his fastball often enough. Rarely did Karp pitch with a game on the line, which is a key part of the learning experience for a pitcher. "It's like he was saving his tank," one scout remarked. For his lack of dominance in college, scouts expect Karp to turn it up a notch and dominate against the wood bats he'll see in the pro ranks.
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The talented Karp underachived at UCLA and has performed far below expectations since being picked sixth overall in the 2001 draft. The organization expected him to bounce back in 2004 after a rough season in Double-A, but instead he regressed. Making matters worse, he walked away from Triple-A Edmonton in mid-August after allowing 10 runs in a start, exacerbating the already serious doubts about his makeup. Karp has the stuff to be an elite pitcher--a 92-93 mph fastball that reaches 96, an 83 mph curveball and an even better changeup--but never has reached that level. Some club officials say he wants to succeed so much that he's too hard on himself when he struggles, and that he'll be a better pitcher in the majors than he has been in the minors. Others say Karp just lacks mental toughness. Washington isn't giving up on him, of course, and added him to its 40-man roster. Besides competing better, Karp needs to keep the ball down in the zone more often and stop relying on his changeup so much. He will have a chance to make the big league team, but in all likelihood he'll repeat Triple-A.
The sixth overall choice in the 2001 draft, Karp hasn't had nearly the success of Joe Mauer, Mark Prior, Gavin Floyd and Mark Teixeira, who were picked right before him. He was winless from May 30 until his last start of the 2003 season. Poor run support was a factor, but his ERA also was 5.65 during that stretch. Despite his record, Karp's stuff showed a huge improvement from 2002. He has a short arm action from a threequarters slot that enables him to command all his pitches. He topped out at 95 mph with his fastball, pitching consistently at 93-94 with good tailing action to both sides of the plate. When he keeps his fastball down, he also achieves good sink. His curveball bites though the strike zone and is a potential out pitch. His changeup is a third plus pitch at times. Karp has never won as much as his stuff would indicate he should. His pitches are inconsistent, as is his pitch selection. He needs to be more assertive on the mound. When the timing is off in his delivery, he drops his elbow and gets under the ball. Karp has all the ingredients. He should start 2004 with Triple-A Edmonton and could be in Montreal by the end of the year.
The sixth overall pick in 2001, Karp signed for $2.65 million and made his pro debut last year. He needed just seven starts at high Class A Brevard County to earn a promotion to Double-A Harrisburg. He missed a month with shoulder tendinitis, but returned to represent the Expos at the Futures Game. When everything is working for Karp, some scouts grade out his raw stuff equal to that of former Pacific-10 Conference rival Mark Prior. He has a prototypical pitcher's body and three plus pitches: a 91-94 mph fastball with good life, a tight downer curveball and a circle changeup. He has a balanced delivery and a quick, easy arm action. The Expos have urged Karp to use his fastball more. He'll have to find a way to battle lefthanders after they hit .331 against him in Double-A. He needs to improve the consistency of all his pitches, as he sometimes loses his mechanics and then overcompensates. Montreal plans to take it slow with Karp, who struggled in the Arizona Fall League while sick with strep throat. He could return to Double-A to begin 2003.
Drafted in the eighth round out of high school by the Braves, Karp passed on a seven-figure bonus to attend UCLA. He went 23-7 over three seasons for the Bruins but rarely showed signs of dominance. After a summer- long holdout as the sixth overall pick in the 2001 draft, he signed in late September for $2.65 million. Karp has the potential to be a front-of-the- rotation starter if everything comes together. He has a prototype pitcher's body to go with a clean, easy arm action, sound mechanics and, at times, three above-average pitches. His arsenal includes a 90-94 mph fastball with exceptional late action at the plate, a tight-breaking curveball with good spin and bite, and an outstanding circle change with late sink. Karp relied on his changeup in college, and the Expos would like to see him establish his fastball more in the pro ranks. He needs to improve the command and consistency of his pitches. Karp never experienced a lot of success in college but will be put on the fast track. He'll go to big league camp before making his pro debut with one of Montreal's Class A affiliates.
Minor League Top Prospects
The sixth overall pick in the 2001 draft, Karp signed last September and thus didn't make his pro debut until this spring. He needed just seven FSL starts before being deemed ready for Double-A. Karp has three plus pitches and just needs to be more consistent with them. His fastball works in the low 90s and has good life, as do his curveball and changeup. He'll need to find a way to succeed against lefthanders after they hit .331 against him in the EL. He has all the tools to be a No. 1 starter, though Karp had a reputation for never living up to his stuff at UCLA. He shed that label in 2002, and now easily ranks as the best prospect in a Montreal system depleted by trades.
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Scouting Reports
Drafted in the eighth round out of high school by the Braves, Karp passed on a seven-figure bonus to attend UCLA. He went 23-7 over three seasons for the Bruins but rarely showed signs of dominance. After a summer- long holdout as the sixth overall pick in the 2001 draft, he signed in late September for $2.65 million. Karp has the potential to be a front-of-the- rotation starter if everything comes together. He has a prototype pitcher's body to go with a clean, easy arm action, sound mechanics and, at times, three above-average pitches. His arsenal includes a 90-94 mph fastball with exceptional late action at the plate, a tight-breaking curveball with good spin and bite, and an outstanding circle change with late sink. Karp relied on his changeup in college, and the Expos would like to see him establish his fastball more in the pro ranks. He needs to improve the command and consistency of his pitches. Karp never experienced a lot of success in college but will be put on the fast track. He'll go to big league camp before making his pro debut with one of Montreal's Class A affiliates.
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