Drafted in the 1st round (19th overall) by the Philadelphia Phillies in 2007 (signed for $1,372,500).
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Area scouts have projected Savery as a 2007 first-rounder since he came out of Lamar High in Houston three years ago. He was the top two-way player in the state, but it would have taken a $1 million bonus to dissuade him from following Jeff Niemann's path from Lamar to Rice. As with Niemann in 2004, Savery hasn't been 100 percent in his draft year following offseason surgery. He didn't pitch for the Owls last June, then had minor surgery to shave down a bone growth in the back of his shoulder that was causing some fraying in his labrum. Savery has taken a regular turn in the Rice rotation this spring, but he has been less than dominant, as his 44-30 K-BB ratio through 68 innings would attest. Savery's velocity was improving in early May, as he was showing a 90-94 mph fastball for a couple of innings and still touched 90 after 100 pitches. In his initial starts this season, he worked more often at 85-89 mph. His changeup is a plus pitch, and his hard, slurvy curveball can get strikeouts when it's on, though he hasn't used it as much as in the past. Savery has continued to pull double duty for the Owls, playing first base and leading the club with a .353 average and 43 RBIs through 52 games. Once he regains full health, he could take off after he focuses his energy and efforts on pitching. The recent litany of Rice pitching prospects who have needed surgery after turning pro concerns scouts, but Savery could be a steal if he slides into the second half of the first round.
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Savery's path in pro ball has been tumultuous and unique, as he has gone from firstround pick to suspect back to prospect and from pitcher to hitter to back to the mound. In 2011, he was named Phillies minor league hitter of the month in April--and its pitcher of the month in August before making his big league debut in September. A two-way star at Rice, Savery looked like a top-five pick in the 2007 draft before he had minor shoulder surgery that contributed to him sliding to the 19th pick, where Philadelphia signed him for $1,372,500. He made it to Triple-A in his second full pro season but went 1-12 there in 2010 as his command deteriorated and his fastball velocity dropped into the low 80s. He had more success at the plate that season, hitting .348 in 46 at-bats, and the Phillies decided to make him a full-time outfielder/first baseman in instructional league. Savery began 2011 in high Class A and was hitting .320 in late May when Clearwater ran out of pitchers in a 23-inning game. He pitched two innings of scoreless relief and showed enough promise that Philadelphia used him as a two-way player in Double-A. He regained the 92-94 mph fastball he had at Rice, as rest and a shorter arm action made a significant difference. He focused primarily on pitching in Triple-A and the majors, showing a plus 81-84 mph slider with late bite. Savery missed more bats and threw more strikes as a reliever than he did as a starter, and he has an inside track for a bullpen job with the Phillies in 2012. He's better suited to that role than as a position player, as he has the hand-eye coordination to hit for average but lacks power.
Nine Rice pitchers have been drafted in the first round or the supplemental first round since Wayne Graham took over the Owls program in the early 1990s. After just one full big league season, Jeff Niemann already has as many victories (15) as any pitcher in the group, which has a track record of injuries and modest success. Savery is trying to buck that trend and is coming off his best pro year, rising to Triple-A and leading Phillies farmhands with 16 wins. But he isn't the same guy the Phillies drafted with the 19th overall pick and signed for $1,372,500 in 2007. He seems to have left his velocity in college, now touching 91-92 mph with his fastball at his best after sitting there at Rice. The athleticism that produced excellent command early in his college career also has regressed. The hope was that Savery's velocity and command would improve after he put college shoulder problems behind him and gave up hitting (he played first base and batted third for much of his time at Rice). To his credit, Savery still creates angle and plane with his fastball, which usually peaks at 90 mph. At times, he can spot his changeup with solid fade to both sides of the plate. His slider is below-average, limiting his usefulness as a potential reliever. He'll spend 2010 in Triple-A unless his stuff and command improve.
Savery ranked third on this list a year ago, coming off a stellar college career at Rice that included the 2005 Freshman of the Year award and two trips to the College World Series. A two-way player for the Owls, Savery was expected to actually improve a bit as a pitcher once he ditched hitting duties. Instead, the 19th overall pick in the 2007 draft and recipient of a $1,372,500 bonus labored through his first full pro season. On the plus side, Savery led the Florida State League with 150 innings, and his arm works well. He has a big, durable body, and scouts saw flashes of his first-round talent, especially with the sink on his fastball. That said, they were just flashes, and on some outings, Savery wouldn't have been turned in as a prospect if not for his firstround pedigree. His fastball sat at 85-88 mph, and often dropped as low as 82. He got 1.81 groundouts for every airout, and his 76-82 mph slider showed average potential. His breaking ball and changeup both backed up as he lost some arm speed. Savery's critics point to a heavier lower half as the culprit for his decreased arm speed and the resulting loss in velocity. Savery was attacking his conditioning in the offseason. He'll be watched closely in spring training to see what kind of shape he's in. His spring performance will determine whether he earns a move to Double-A.
After starring as a freshman at Rice in 2005, Savery looked like he'd be a top-five draft pick just like fellow Lamar High (Houston) alumnus Jeff Niemann. But like a lot of Owls pitchers, Savery came down with medical issues. He had minor surgery after his sophomore season to shave down a bone growth in the back of his shoulder that was causing some fraying in his labrum. He wasn't at his best last spring, which allowed him to slide to the Phillies at No. 19. He signed for $1,372,500. As a lefty two-way player in college, he garnered comparisons to Mark Mulder. While his fastball velocity was down for much of the spring, Savery flashed 90-94 mph heaters by May and pitched at 88-92 mph in his pro debut. He also can be effective at 86-89 mph. His changeup has the potential to be an above-average pitch and his slurvy breaking ball grades as average to plus. The Phillies rave about his work ethic. Just a year removed from surgery, Savery predictably struggled with the command of all his pitches in his pro debut. He didn't repeat his delivery well, in part because he was worn down. The last four Rice starting pitchers drafted in the first round have had major arm surgeries, a track record that scared a lot of clubs. Philadelphia sent Savery to the Arizona Fall League because they thought his makeup was well-suited for the challenge, which should expedite his development. He'll open 2008 in low Class A and could move quickly if he performs well and shows the ability to maintain his mechanics and velocity deep into games. He could make his big league debut by 2009.
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Savery had a decorated collegiate career at Rice, winning Baseball America's Freshman of the Year award in 2005 and first-team All-America honors as a two-way star this spring. The Phillies might never have gotten the chance to draft him at No. 19 had he not been slowed by offseason surgery to shave down a bone growth in his shoulder, and they monitored his workload carefully this summer. Savery looked good in limited action, running his fastball up to 92 mph and showing an above-average downer curveball and solid changeup. He's very polished, with command of all his offerings and a smooth, repeatable delivery.
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