Drafted in the 1st round (30th overall) by the Texas Rangers in 2004 (signed for $1,050,000).
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Among high school pitchers, Hurley was closing the season as well as any of his peers, and his improvement will be reflected in his draft position. Heading into Florida's all-star games in Sebring, he was pitching his way toward the middle of the first round thanks to some of the best fastball velocity in the country. Hurley has gone from pitching in the 90-93 mph range to 92-95 consistently, hitting at least 96 in eight straight outings and maintaining his velocity deep into games. Pitching for one of the nation's top teams, he went 13-1, 0.70 with 11 walks and 139 strikeouts in 90 innings. Hurley has a loose arm, and now that he's ironed out a small mechanical issue--staying more upright in his delivery and keeping his elbows in--he's put all the pieces together. He's flashed an average slider and changeup. At times he gets around his breaking ball a bit, when he drops his elbow, and doesn't command it. Detractors say he has a slight head jerk in his delivery that causes him to elevate his fastball, but with Hurley's velocity and life, he might be the kind of pitcher who can live up in the zone, even against professionals.
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After failing to make the Texas rotation out of spring training, Hurley struggled at Triple-A Oklahoma in April but started to pitch better in May, earning his first career big league callup when injuries struck the Rangers in June. He made four starts, trying to get by with a depleted 88-90 mph fastball before taking two weeks off with shoulder inflammation. He returned to throw 7 1/3 shutout innings in a Double-A rehab start in mid-July, then tweaked his hamstring while running and missed two more weeks. He returned to make one more disastrous start in late July against Oakland, showing an 84-88 mph fastball and a soft spinner of a slider, and the Rangers decided to shut him down for the rest of the year. They made him the 30th overall pick in the 2004 draft, signing him for $1.05 million. Even at full strength, Hurley has a history of pitching around 88-91 early in games, leaving him vulnerable against quality hitters, before dialing his fastball up to 93-95 by the middle innings. At his best, he features a pair of above-average pitches with his sinker and his firm slider with good depth, but he lacked his best stuff in 2008. He did, however, get comfortable with his grip on a split-changeup, finally giving him a solid weapon against lefthanders. After an offseason spent strengthening his shoulder, Hurley will hope he's 100 percent for spring training, when he should vie for a starting rotation spot again. He still has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter.
At the lower levels of the minors, Hurley was often able to dominate hitters simply by overpowering them, but he has had to learn how to adjust to hitters at higher levels. When he began overmatching Double-A batters in the first half of 2007, the Rangers moved him up to Triple-A, where he wore down late and experienced his first real taste of adversity. Hurley has a pair of plus offerings in his sinking 92-95 mph fastball that runs down and in and his firm slider with good depth. He refined his command of both pitches in 2007, and Texas forced him to focus on developing his changeup in Triple-A. He made some progress with the changeup early, flashing some turnover fade. As Hurley ran out of gas down the stretch, his changeup wasn't as comfortable coming out of his hand and he struggled to locate it. He also got hit hard when he left his fastball up in the zone. It usually takes him a few innings to get his velocity up, as he works at 88-92 mph early in games. Hurley will likely get a chance to crack the big league rotation in spring training, but a return to Triple-A and a midseason callup seems more likely. He projects as a mid-rotation starter in the Kevin Millwood mold.
Hurley survived the hitter-happy high Class A California League in the first half of the season, though he went 0-2, 9.45 in three July starts after returning from the Futures Game. Nonetheless, the Rangers promoted him to the Double-A Texas League, where he snapped out of his midseason funk and finished strong. Hurley is a true power pitcher with a pair of plus pitches and a chance for a third. He gets stronger as the game progresses, so if opponents don't get to him early in the game when his fastball is sitting around 90 mph, they soon have to contend with 93-96 mph heat, even in the late innings. He has developed enough confidence in his above-average slider to throw it in any count, an improvement from 2005. He's driven to reach the big leagues and receptive to instruction. Hurley's changeup remains underutilized and below-average, though he does have a good feel for it. Hurley could be a top-end starter if his changeup develops. He'll likely begin 2007 back in Double-A, though he could see the majors by the end of the season.
Hurley hasn't shot through the minors as quickly as his Wolfson High (Jacksonville) teammate and fellow 2004 first-round pick Billy Butler of the Royals, but he did lead the low Class A Midwest League in strikeouts during his first full pro season. His lean body held up well, and he showed maturity living on his own in Iowa and getting married as a 19-year-old. Hurley was able to dominate high school hitters with only his 92-95 mph fastball, which has good life up in the zone and late boring action down at the knees. He made a lot of progress in 2005 with his late-breaking 78-83 mph slider, which looks like it will become an above-average pitch as well. He's confident on the mound and has good command for his age. Hurley's changeup is still a work in progress but could end up an average pitch. He gets a lot of leverage from his long frame, but needs to grow into it and learn to repeat his delivery better. The next step for Hurley is conquering the hitter-friendly high Class A California League. He's not as advanced or as famous as the DVD trio yet, but he may have a higher ceiling than all of them.
Jacksonville's Wolfson High became the fifth high school to produce two first-round picks in the same draft, as Billy Butler (14th overall, Royals) and Hurley (30th) improved their stock last spring. Hurley showed one of the best fastballs in the high school ranks. He regularly touched 96 mph, and in one outing several scouts clocked him at 97 three times in the seventh inning. That kind of velocity endears him to Rangers general manager John Hart, who loves power arms. Hurley didn't show the same velocity after signing for $1.05 million, topping out at 92-93 mph. Texas attributed it to pitching more than he had previously and expects his fastball to bounce back. He has a loose arm and projectable frame that should get stronger down the line. Hurley has a hard slider that can be an above-average power pitch, but he doesn't have much of a changeup. Hurley's detractors in the draft pointed to his delivery--his head jerks to one side--which causes him to drop and drag his arm, adversely affecting his velocity and control. The Rangers pushed Hurley aggressively in his first season and plan to start him out at low Class A Clinton in 2005.
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As they did with lefty John Danks in 2006, the Rangers bumped Hurley to Triple-A just three years after drafting him in the first round out of high school. Texas felt comfortable moving Hurley quickly, given his even temperament and willingness to take instruction. He pitched very well for Oklahoma before getting hammered in his final two starts, when he allowed six of his 13 Triple-A homers. With a repertoire headed by a 91-95 mph fastball and an above-average slider with late depth, Hurley is all about power. Those two pitches will play up--and his strikeouts will increase--as he gains more command. He needs to improve his changeup and do a better job of working down in the strike zone.
After finishing last season in Frisco, Hurley returned for another half-season of Double-A experience before he moved up to Triple-A in June. He ranked among the league leaders in most pitching categories at the time of his departure. Hurley's power sinker left a definite impression, and most managers thought he could be successful just working off his two- and four-seam fastballs. He operates in the low 90s and backs up his fastball with a slider and changeup. All his pitches show late life, and he commands them most of the time. "Righthanded hitters just wanted to give up against his sinker," Corpus Christi manager Dave Clark said. "He has a good slider, too, but he didn't have to use it in this league."
Hurley's numbers actually were more impressive in his six late-season Double-A starts than they were for Bakersfield, but he more than held his own as a 20-year-old in the hitter-friendly Cal League. At times he looked almost disinterested, perhaps weighed down by Bakersfield's struggles, in particular after he returned from the Futures Game. But he still gets high marks for his makeup, as he's very driven to reach the big leagues and receptive to instruction. Hurley is a true power pitcher with a pair of plus pitches and a chance for a third. He gets stronger as the game progresses, so if opponents don't get to him early when his fastball sits around 90 mph, they'll have to contend with 93-96 mph heat in the late innings. He has developed enough confidence in his above-average slider to throw it in any count, an improvement from 2005. His changeup remains underutilized and below average, but he has good feel for it and is working on improving the pitch.
A National League scout who covers multiple leagues said Hurley was the equal of any pitching prospect he saw in 2005. He's still making a transition from high school thrower to professional pitcher, but he had enough polish to lead the MWL in strikeouts. Hurley's lone above-average pitch at this point is his fastball. He can blow it by hitters at 94-95 mph up in the zone or locate it in the low 90s with late boring action at their knees. He's making progress with a hard slider that could become a plus pitch in time, while his changeup lags further behind. Hurley repeats an efficient delivery, maintaining his balance and staying on line to the plate. His control is already good and should improve with experience. He works hard and studies hitters, looking for any possible edge.
Like Tuiasosopo, Hurley wasn't able to repeat his Arizona League success following a promotion. His ERA wasn't pretty, and he never worked more than four innings so he didn't record a win. He assumed the added burden of following John Danks, a first-round pick out of high school who shined in a late taste of the NWL last summer. Still, some managers saw skills that give Hurley a big upside if he improves the quality of his strikes and becomes more polished. Hurley reached 93-94 mph from a three-quarters arm slot that produced good movement. He complemented it with a solid feel for a changeup and a slider that could become at least average. "We didn't sniff him," said Grifol, also an area scout for the Mariners. "I liked him as an amateur, and I like him as a pro."
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Rated Best Slider in the Texas Rangers in 2008
Rated Best Fastball in the Texas Rangers in 2007
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After failing to make the Texas rotation out of spring training, Hurley struggled at Triple-A Oklahoma in April but started to pitch better in May, earning his first career big league callup when injuries struck the Rangers in June. He made four starts, trying to get by with a depleted 88-90 mph fastball before taking two weeks off with shoulder inflammation. He returned to throw 7 1/3 shutout innings in a Double-A rehab start in mid-July, then tweaked his hamstring while running and missed two more weeks. He returned to make one more disastrous start in late July against Oakland, showing an 84-88 mph fastball and a soft spinner of a slider, and the Rangers decided to shut him down for the rest of the year. They made him the 30th overall pick in the 2004 draft, signing him for $1.05 million. Even at full strength, Hurley has a history of pitching around 88-91 early in games, leaving him vulnerable against quality hitters, before dialing his fastball up to 93-95 by the middle innings. At his best, he features a pair of above-average pitches with his sinker and his firm slider with good depth, but he lacked his best stuff in 2008. He did, however, get comfortable with his grip on a split-changeup, finally giving him a solid weapon against lefthanders. After an offseason spent strengthening his shoulder, Hurley will hope he's 100 percent for spring training, when he should vie for a starting rotation spot again. He still has a chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter.
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