Justin Nicolino

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Miami Marlins #3 prospect in 2015
  The Marlins acquired Nicolino from the Blue Jays as part of the November 2012 megadeal that sent Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and others to Toronto. Nicolino won over Miami manager Mike Redmond when he pitched for him at low Class A Lansing in the Blue Jays system. He pitched effectively at Double-A Jacksonville in 2014, winning Southern League pitcher of the year honors after leading the circuit in wins (14), ERA (2.85) and WHIP (1.07). Nicolino struck out just 4.3 batters per nine innings in 2014--fewer than all but six qualified minor league starters--but the Marlins aren't worried. He induces plenty of weak contact early in the count thanks to off-the-charts pitchability and a smooth, repeatable delivery. Nicolino has elite control, as evidenced by ranking third in the minors with 1.1 walks per nine. He incorporated a cutter in 2014 that he showed five or six times a game, but often he could log several innings using nothing but fastballs and changeups, precisely placed. He has to be fine, for only his changeup earns above-average grades. Nicolino's 88-91 mph fastball can reach 93 but lacks life. His mid- to upper-70s curveball bounced back to average late in 2014 after he'd struggled with it early. Nicolino likely will advance to Triple-A New Orleans in 2015. His overall profile is rare--most scouts project him as a No. 4 starter--but with his plus command he could reach a higher ceiling.
• 
  Ranked Miami Marlins #4 prospect in 2014
  Two years after the Blue Jays lured Nicolino away from his Virginia commitment with an above-slot $615,000 deal, they dealt him to Miami in the November 2012 blockbuster. He toyed with the high Class A Florida State League last spring, earning a July promotion to Double-A Jacksonville, where he struggled for the first time as a pro. An intelligent student of the game, Nicolino has a smooth delivery and a great feel for pitching. His fastball sits 88-92 mph, topping out at 94, with nice downhill plane and tailing movement. His best pitch is a plus straight changeup with a little diving action at the finish. He can spot his big, 1-to-7 curveball for strikes or use it as an out pitch. It's an average offering now and could develop into an above-average pitch. The key to his success is his plus control to both sides of the plate and feel for changing speeds to keep hitters off-balance. Tall and lanky, he has been handled cautiously since he was drafted and could stand to add strength to improve his durability. Intense and level-headed, he works hard at his craft and places a lot of pressure on himself to succeed. Nicolino's ceiling is a savvy No. 4-type starter whose sum will equal more than its parts. He should return to Jacksonville, where he has some unfinished business to attend to before moving on.
• 
  Ranked Miami Marlins #6 prospect in 2013
  Armed with extra picks in 2010, the Blue Jays rolled the dice on Nicolino, considered a tough sign away from a Virginia commitment. Since signing for an above-slot $615,000 in the second round, he has dominated pro hitters. He ranked as the No.1 prospect in the short-season Northwest League in 2011, then led the low Class A Midwest League in ERA (2.46) and WHIP (1.07) as an encore. He came to the Marlins in the Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrle trade. Nicolino's polish is more impressive than his stuff, but he's not a soft-tosser. He spots a fastball that sits at 88-92 mph and touches 94 to both sides of the plate, and he's not afraid to come inside on hitters. His best pitch is a plus changeup that he sells with deceptive arm speed. He gets under his changeup at times but has the aptitude to make corrections quickly. Nicolino needs to stay on top of his curveball too, but it's a solid third pitch with good shape. Though there's some crossfire to his delivery, that doesn't prevent him from throwing all three pitches for strikes. Nicolino profiles as a mid-rotation starter with an ultimate ceiling of a No. 2. He'll advance to high Class A at age 21. His savvy could put him on the fast track after Toronto handled him cautiously early in his career.
• 
  Ranked Toronto Blue Jays #5 prospect in 2012
  Nicolino's commitment to Virginia had teams wary of picking him early in the 2010 draft, but the Blue Jays had extra picks and rolled the dice in the second round. He signed for an over-slot $615,000 bonus, too late to make his pro debut in 2010. He dominated the short-season Northwest League in 2011, ranking as the circuit's top prospect, and earned a promotion to low Class A, where he posted a 3.00 ERA in five starts (including the playoffs). Nicolino's fastball sits at 89-92 mph and touches 94. He has baffled inexperienced hitters with an advanced changeup that could become a true plus pitch. He maintains good arm speed when he throws his changeup and commands it to both sides of the plate. His curveball is his third pitch, yet could become an average offering. It was slow and loopy early last summer, but he tightened it up as the year progressed. Nicolino shows exceptional pitching acumen for a youngster. He isn't afraid to pitch inside and will change his approach after going once through an order. Nicolino profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with the ceiling of a No. 2. If he continues to make pitching look as easy as he did in his first pro season, he won't stay at Lansing long in 2012.
• 
  Ranked Toronto Blue Jays #20 prospect in 2011
  Some clubs considered Nicolino a top-three-rounds talent in the 2010 draft, but many were wary of his commitment to Virginia. The Blue Jays could afford to gamble because they had six extra draft picks as free-agent compensation, and his performance at the Florida state high school all-star games in late May convinced them to take him in the second round. He signed in August for $615,000. Nicolino's fastball ranged from 85-91 mph in the spring, but he got stronger over the summer and sat at 90 and topped out at 92 during instructional league. He also showed a firmer breaking ball--an overhand curveball in the low 80s that features average bite. His changeup is his best secondary pitch, as he throws it with excellent arm speed and gets some good fade. Nicolino has added 15 pounds in the last year and still has some room to fill out and get stronger. He should begin 2011 in extended spring training and make his pro debut during the summer.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Southern League #19 prospect in 2014
  Nicolino doesn't throw his fastball or breaking ball with the same power as Jacksonville rotation-mate Andrew Heaney, but SL managers preferred the command-oriented Nicolino almost unanimously. He repeats his delivery so adeptly that he walked just 20 batters in a season encompassing 28 starts and 170 innings, and just two qualified minor league starters walked batters less frequently. Nicolino led the SL in wins (14), ERA (2.85) and WHIP (1.07) on his way to being named the league's most outstanding pitcher. Nicolino's solid-average 89-91 mph fastball and plus changeup play up because he spots them to both sides of the plate. He rediscovered the feel for his high-70s curveball at the end of the season, when it began to play more average to a tick above. As such, he struck out 18 batters in his final 25 innings, though his overall strikeout rate of 4.3 batters per nine innings ranked among the lowest in the minors. Nicolino consistently pitches with double-plus control and does a good job of keeping the ball off the barrel and out of the air, giving him a chance to succeed as a durable No. 4 starter.
• 
  Ranked Florida State League #16 prospect in 2013
  Acquired from the Blue Jays in the Jose Reyes-Mark Buerhle megadeal in the offseason, Nicolino was back in the same league as former Toronto teammates Noah Syndergaard (now with the Mets) and Aaron Sanchez. All three were part of the same 2010 draft class. Nicolino has the best command of the trio and ranks among the best pitchers in the minors in that regard. Nicolino repeats his quiet, efficient delivery and walked just 1.7 batters per nine innings in the FSL this season. Some scouts give him 70 control and present major league average command. His changeup is his best pitch, earning plus grades. At his best, his fastball has similar tailing action as his change, but while it touches 94 mph, it sits more comfortably at 89-92. Nicolino?s curve also earns average grades, thrown with solid power at 74-77 mph. He gets in trouble when he misses up because he doesn?t have the velocity to challenge hitters. He projects as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
• 
  Ranked Midwest League #11 prospect in 2012
  His stuff takes a back seat to that of his teammates Sanchez and Syndergaard, but it was Nicolino who led the MWL in ERA (2.46) and WHIP (1.07). He stood out as easily the best lefty in the league, consistently repeating his delivery and filling the strike zone with three pitches. Nicolino's 89-92 mph fastball plays up because he can spot it on both sides of the plate and isn't afraid to challenge righthanders inside. His plus changeup rated as the MWL's best, and his curveball gives him a solid third offering. He throws across his body somewhat, though that didn't hamper his command. "He knows how to get people out," Valentin said. "He works both sides of the plate with his breaking ball and he can come inside to righthanders. You never know what's coming because he can throw all three pitches in any count for a strike. You don't see too many lefthanders with that command."
• 
  Ranked Northwest League #1 prospect in 2011
  Nicolino offers a complete package on the mound and profiles as a possible No. 2 starter. He's a lefthander with a quality three-pitch mix, command, repeatable delivery, projectable frame and all-business demeanor. "He just has a great feel for pitching and the stuff to go with it," an American League scout said. "He just attacked people. If there's a surefire big leaguer, he's the guy." Nicolino's fastball typically ranges from 89-92 mph and touches 94, and he locates it on both sides of the plate. His changeup is well advanced for his age. His curveball was a little slow and loopy at the beginning of the year, but he sharpened it and it should wind up being at least average. "His changeup may be his best pitch of all, and that's what really baffled hitters early on," Vancouver pitching coach Jim Czajkowski said. "He can throw it any time, any count. If he's in trouble, he would go to it a little more. He just used it very well. If he gets out of whack with his fastball, that gets him back into the rhythm he needs to be in."

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #86 prospect in 2013

• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: Armed with extra picks in 2010, the Blue Jays rolled the dice on Nicolino, considered a tough sign away from a Virginia commitment. Since signing for an above-slot $615,000 in the second round, he has dominated pro hitters. Pitching on the Lansing staff with Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez in 2012, Nicolino led the Midwest League in ERA (2.46) and WHIP (1.07). Scouting Report: His stuff can't match that of Syndergaard and Sanchez, but Nicolino's polish puts him in nearly the same class. He spots a fastball that sits at 88-92 mph and touches 94 to both sides of the plate, unafraid to come inside on hitters. His best pitch is a plus changeup that he sells with deceptive arm speed. He gets under his changeup at times but had the aptitude to make corrections quickly. He needs to stay on top of his curveball too, but it's a solid third pitch with good shape. Though there's some crossfire to his delivery, that doesn't prevent him from throwing all three pitches for strikes. The Future: Nicolino profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with an ultimate ceiling of a No. 2. He'll reunite with Syndergaard and Sanchez in high Class A Dunedin to open next season. Nicolino's savvy could make him the first of that trio to eventually reach the major leagues.
• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: Armed with extra picks in 2010, the Blue Jays rolled the dice on Nicolino, considered a tough sign away from a Virginia commitment. Since signing for an above-slot $615,000 in the second round, he has dominated pro hitters. He ranked as the No.1 prospect in the short-season Northwest League in 2011, then led the low Class A Midwest League in ERA (2.46) and WHIP (1.07) as an encore. He came to the Marlins in the Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrle trade. Scouting Report: Nicolino's polish is more impressive than his stuff, but he's not a soft-tosser. He spots a fastball that sits at 88-92 mph and touches 94 to both sides of the plate, and he's not afraid to come inside on hitters. His best pitch is a plus changeup that he sells with deceptive arm speed. He gets under his changeup at times but has the aptitude to make corrections quickly. Nicolino needs to stay on top of his curveball too, but it's a solid third pitch with good shape. Though there's some crossfire to his delivery, that doesn't prevent him from throwing all three pitches for strikes. The Future: Nicolino profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with an ultimate ceiling of a No. 2. He'll advance to high Class A at age 21. His savvy could put him on the fast track after Toronto handled him cautiously early in his career.
• December, 2011 Scouting Report
  Background: Nicolino's commitment to Virginia had teams wary of picking him early in the 2010 draft, but the Blue Jays had extra picks and rolled the dice in the second round. He signed for an over-slot $615,000 bonus, too late to make his pro debut in 2010. He dominated the short-season Northwest League in 2011, ranking as the circuit's top prospect, and earned a promotion to low Class A, where he posted a 3.00 ERA in five starts (including the playoffs). Scouting Report: Nicolino's fastball sits at 89-92 mph and touches 94. He has baffled inexperienced hitters with an advanced changeup that could become a true plus pitch. He maintains good arm speed when he throws his changeup and commands it to both sides of the plate. His curveball is his third pitch, yet could become an average offering. It was slow and loopy early last summer, but he tightened it up as the year progressed. Nicolino shows exceptional pitching acumen for a youngster. He isn't afraid to pitch inside and will change his approach after going once through an order. The Future: Nicolino profiles as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with the ceiling of a No. 2. If he continues to make pitching look as easy as he did in his first pro season, he won't stay at Lansing long in 2012.