Drafted in the 3rd round (89th overall) by the New York Yankees in 1996.
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Johnson missed the entire 2000 season with a mysterious wrist injury that originated with a checked swing in spring training. Healthy again, he made his second trip to the Futures Game last summer. His game is reminiscent of Don Mattingly, whom Johnson has worked with in recent spring trainings. He is a nephew of Larry Bowa. Johnson retained his uncanny knack for getting on base in 2001. He's an ultrapatient hitter who uses the whole field, waits for a pitch in his zone and isn't afraid to hit deep in the count. He has been more conscious of turning on pitches and lifting balls. Johnson is a slick fielder with natural actions and good footwork around first base. Johnson doesn't clog the bases, but he's a below-average runner. He'll have to adapt to DH after the Yankees invested $120 million in Jason Giambi, who prefers to play first base. Johnson will have to break in as a DH until it's apparent he's a better defender than Giambi. He could see time in the outfield, and he'll be a rookie of the year candidate if he gets enough at-bats.
Johnson's extraordinary 1999 season in Double-A had the Yankees excited about what he might do in 2000. He led the Eastern League in '99 in hitting (.345) and topped the entire minors in walks (123), hit by pitches (37) and on-base percentage (.525). Johnson was ticketed for Triple-A to start 2000, though he had a chance to make the big league club at some point. And with Tino Martinez' contract set to expire, Johnson was in position to take over the first-base job in 2001. But all that went awry in spring training, when Johnson felt something pop in his right hand when he checked a swing. Doctors struggled to diagnose the injury, which didn't heal until his hand was placed in a cast. As a result, he didn't play in a game all season.
Johnson is a tremendously gifted all-around hitter. He obviously produces for average and his power is coming. He had 14 home runs in 1999, when he played his home games in a park (Norwich's Dodd Memorial Stadium) not conducive to power. Johnson was seen as a Mark Grace type when he signed, but since has put on 44 pounds and should be much more of a masher. The Grace comparisons were a tribute to Johnson's glove, and he was named the EL's best defensive first baseman in 1999. He also made a league-high 20 errors at first base that season, though the Yankees think he only needs to be more aggressive to avoid getting caught in between hops.
The biggest negative surrounding Johnson is his lost year of development. To try to overcome that, he spent much of the offseason in Tampa going through daily hitting drills. He's not going to overwhelm anyone as a runner, but he doesn't need to. Defensively, he just has to charge more grounders. The Yankees picked up Martinez' option for 2001, so he'll return while Johnson gets Triple-A at-bats. Martinez has been slumping since bashing 44 homers in 1997, and New York got the worst production out of its first basemen among all American League clubs in 2000. There's no reason to assume Johnson won't regain his place among the most feared minor league hitters, which will put him in line to replace Martinez in 2002.
Background: Johnson's smooth progression up the Yankees' development ladder and the steady improvement of his skills and performance make predictions of what he might accomplish in Triple-A in 2000 a bit scary. Johnson, whose uncle is former big leaguer Larry Bowa, led Double-A with a unique triple crown last year--batting average (.345), walks (123) and hit-by-pitches (37), resulting in a minor leaguebest .525 on-base percentage.
Strengths: Johnson's offensive strengths are his approach and patience. He starts straight up in the middle of the batter's box but steps and leans in as the pitch is delivered. His quick hands and trigger let him wait until the last instant to commit. When he moves down and into the pitch, most of his hits go up the middle and to the alley in left center. Pitchers' attempts to bust him inside have only resulted in his being hit by 74 pitches the last three years. He has no problem with lefties, either, hitting .376 with seven home runs against southpaws in '99. Defensively, Johnson is smooth and savvy, with soft hands and good balance. With the lack of quality American League first basemen, he could challenge for a Gold Glove as a rookie. Weaknesses: Johnson's home run totals for his three full seasons (16, 17 and 14) aren't bad for a young hitter but are below expectations for a top first-base prospect. But the same technique that allows him to hit for average--moving down and into the pitch and waiting to commit--effectively locks him out of pulling most pitches, especially fastballs. His spike in power against lefthanders is a result of slow breaking balls he can time and jump on. Comparing Johnson to Mark Grace, as some have done, isn't appropriate. If Johnson adjusted his approach against some pitchers, as Sean Casey did in 1999, the power would come at the cost of some of his other skills. The Future: Tino Martinez' contract runs out after 2000, when Johnson will have a full season of Triple-A experience. With Martinez noticeably slipping the past three years, there's a perfect opportunity to prepare for the transition to Johnson. If Martinez rejuvenates his bat, he can move to DH, making way for Johnson's better glove and agility.
Background: Part of Johnson's baseball upbringing comes from his uncle, former big leaguer Larry Bowa. Though he was named the Yankees' No. 10 prospect after the 1997 season, Johnson was largely unknown before he emerged to dominate the Florida State League in 1998. Only midseason arthroscopic surgery on his right (non-throwing) shoulder kept him from amassing triple-crown numbers.
Strengths: Johnson has experienced a huge surge in his power potential since signing. The Yankees feel the intensive work he has done with strength and conditioning coach Shawn Powell has transformed him into a player with 40-homer potential, rather than a Mark Grace clone. Johnson is unique as a young hitter because he combines great bat speed with excellent pitch recognition. His 68 walks in 1998 project to 113 over 500 at-bats. Defensively, the comparison to Grace still holds. Johnson has Gold Glove hands and actions around first base.
Weaknesses: Johnson has below-average speed, normal for a first baseman. With almost all young hitters there is a normal amount of organizational caution about how they will react to more experienced pitchers with better stuff and command. The Yankees seem to have none of this concern with Johnson. They will be completely shocked if he doesn't develop into a strong major league hitter.
The Future: Yankees first baseman Tino Martinez will be 31 on Opening Day 1999 and has led the Yankees in RBIs for three straight years. Despite this, the Yankees clearly consider Johnson their first baseman of the future. It will be a matter of when he is ready, rather than of when the position is open, that determines when he will take the job. Statistically, Norwich's Dodd Stadium is the second-most difficult home run park in Double-A, so Johnson's home run numbers likely will not jump out in 1999. There is no reason to rush him with a top quality first baseman already under contract. The clock is ticking, though.
Minor League Top Prospects
The minors' OPS darling had a healthy wrist in 2001, so he went back to doing what he does best. Johnson hit just .256, but he had 38 extra-base hits in 359 at-bats and drew 81 walks. He's major league-ready and could make Tino Martinez expendable in New York. "I think he answered the questions about his health this year by him playing every day," Evers said. "Next year will be a big year for him. I think when he's stronger next year, you'll see better power numbers. His defense is already good." Tosca called Johnson "the closest thing you'll see to a Mark Grace." Johnson weighs a good 25 pounds more than Grace, however, so he could develop considerably more power.
Johnson's game has been compared to those of Mark Grace and Rafael Palmeiro. His numbers supported those comparisons. "He reminds me of Gracie to a T," said New Haven manager Dan Rohn. "He doesn't strike out. He has a great eye. He stays in there. You can't knock him off the plate by hitting him, because he's been hit about 100 times this year. I love his swing. He plays way beyond his years." Johnson's numbers this season were way beyond most. He led the league in batting, runs and on-base percentage (.525, 85 points ahead of his nearest pursuer). That number was boosted by his league-record 37 times hit by pitches. "He's the best prospect I've seen the last two years," Sisson said. "He's going to be a middle-of-the-order hitter in the big leagues for a team the caliber of the New York Yankees."
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Rated Best Defensive 1B in the International League in 2001
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