Casey Kelly

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked San Diego Padres #17 prospect in 2015
  Kelly still showed the pitch quality in 2014 that has made him a six-time Top 10 Prospect. The trouble for him is that his pitch quantity has been lacking since he made 27 starts at Double-A San Antonio in 2011. He rocketed to the majors in 2012, the year he first encountered elbow soreness, but then he missed all of 2013 after having Tommy John surgery in spring training. More elbow trouble limited him to just four starts in 2014, and he has totaled 87 innings in the past three seasons. However, Kelly still tantalizes scouts with three above-average pitches that all play up to plus at various times. He generates big sink and running action on a 92-93 mph fastball that batters struggle to lift, and he backs up his heater with a sharp, down-breaking curveball and a changeup that plays well off his sinker. Kelly needs only to regain the same health he showed early in his career to reach his ceiling as a No. 3 starter. The Padres aren't counting on him in 2015, but he's still talented, and he's still on the 40-man roster.
• 
  Ranked San Diego Padres #5 prospect in 2014
  Just when he appeared ready to deliver on the promise that made him the 30th overall pick by the Red Sox in 2008 and the centerpiece of the Adrian Gonzalez trade two years later, Kelly missed half the 2012 season with a strained elbow ligament and then all of 2013 after having Tommy John surgery in April. He shook a reputation for projection over production with his injury-abbreviated performance at Double-A and Triple-A in 2012, which included a 32/3 SO/BB ratio and 0.91 WHIP over 29 innings. He owed much of his enhanced strikeout rate to improved fastball location and finish on a curveball that had only teased plus in the past. Kelly wears out the bottom of the zone with a low-90s sinking fastball that features consistent armside run, and generating groundballs is one of his strong suits. Just when batters get used to seeing the fastball he mixes in a changeup, though he could improve his results by adding more separation on the pitch between either his fastball or curveball. An exceptional athlete who played both ways in high school and his first year as a pro, Kelly repeats his delivery, so further improvement of his secondary pitches is possible. Assuming a full recovery, he has mid-rotation upside. In a best-case scenario Kelly could be on regular schedule by May and in the big league rotation near the all-star break.
• 
  Ranked San Diego Padres #1 prospect in 2013
  When the Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez, their best player of the last decade, they received Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Reymond Fuentes from the Red Sox in December 2010. San Diego subsequently turned Rizzo into Andrew Cashner and Fuentes has faded, leaving Kelly as the most prominent direct link to Gonzalez. Kelly entered pro ball as the 30th pick in the 2008 draft, the recipient of a Boston draft-record $3 million bonus. At the time he viewed himself as a shortstop, and though the Red Sox preferred him on the mound, they acceded to his wishes so he'd give up a football scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee. But after hitting .219 over two seasons he committed to pitching full-time in 2010, zooming to Double-A as a 20-year-old and getting traded that offseason. Kelly hit the ground running with Triple-A Tucson in 2012, tallying 14 strikeouts, no walks and just three runs allowed through his first two starts--but that's when his elbow started barking. He missed three months as he recovered from a strained ligament. Once healthy, Kelly resumed his march to the majors and debuted with San Diego on Aug. 27, tossing six scoreless innings against the Braves. The sinking action Kelly generates on his fastball enables it to play up as a plus offering, even at his typical velocity range of 90-92 mph. At its best, the pitch features plus armside run and veers away from the barrel of lefthanders. He'll bump his four-seam fastball up to 95 mph at times, but his sinker and ability to consistently locate down and to both corners remain his strongest attributes. In his six starts with San Diego, he generated grounders on nearly 56 percent of balls put into play against him--well above the major league average of 45 percent. Kelly throws his curveball with more power now than he did two years ago. He tops out near 80 mph and generating 12-to-6 break that induces awkward swings and misses, especially when he throws it as a chase pitch ahead in the count. He must develop consistency with his mid-80s changeup, but his clean, compact delivery and athleticism auger well for improvement. Scouts think the changeup could become above average because lefties swing right over the top of the best ones. Kelly shined on occasion during his first tour of duty in the big leagues, but he still finished with a 6.21 ERA. He found the strike zone frequently enough, though his command appeared rusty at times, a byproduct of making just 11 non-rehab starts in 2012. He could grow into a No. 2 starter and should be a safe bet to be at least a No. 3. He has pitched just 41 innings above Double-A, so San Diego may give him more time at Tucson to begin 2013.
• 
  Ranked San Diego Padres #3 prospect in 2012
  Kelly viewed himself as a shortstop when the Red Sox paid him a franchise draft-record $3 million as the 30th overall pick in 2008. He hit just .219 in his first two pro seasons before finally acceding to Boston's wishes in 2010 that he become a full-time pitcher. He performed well enough to join Anthony Rizzo as the centerpieces of the trade that sent Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. Kelly's fastball ranges from 88-92 to 93-95 mph, with heavy sink that helps it play as an above-average pitch even at lower velocities. That sinking action helped him post the second-best groundout/airout ratio (1.9) in the Double-A Texas League in 2011. He repeats a clean, compact arm action that has aided the development of his secondary pitches. Kelly improved his control and consistency with his breaking ball when he repeated Double-A. His 11-to-5 curveball added depth and velocity, grading as a plus pitch more often, though his changeup took a small step back. He entices batters to swing over his mid-80s change when he throws it from the same arm slot as his fastball. He lives in the bottom of the strike zone, allowing just 18 homers in 48 Double-A starts. Kelly doesn't miss enough bats to profile as a pure ace, but with the potential for three solid to plus pitches, he fits the description of a No. 2 starter to a tee.
• 
  Ranked San Diego Padres #1 prospect in 2011
  Kelly was one of the top two-way players in the 2008 draft coming out of high school, but his high asking price and scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee made him available to the Red Sox with the 30th overall pick. They viewed him as the most polished high school arm in the draft and signed him for $3 million, a franchise record for a draftee. The son of former big league catcher Pat Kelly, Casey preferred playing every day to pitching, and Boston agreed to let him make his debut at shortstop. He didn't pitch professionally until 2009, then switched back to shortstop after appearing in the Futures Game. But after Kelly hit .219 in two pro seasons and .171 in the '09 Arizona Fall League, he agreed that his future was on the mound. The Red Sox assigned him to Double-A last year, where at 20 he was the youngest starting pitcher in the Eastern League. Boston shut him down as a precaution when he strained a lat muscle in early August. In December, the Red Sox traded Kelly to the Padres as the centerpiece of a four-player package for Adrian Gonzalez. Boston attributed Kelly's struggles in 2010 to him having to learn how to harness an increase in velocity and make his mechanics work as his frame started to mature. His fastball now ranges from 89-93 mph and peaks at 96. He showed the ability to consistently locate his fastball on both corners with sink in 2009 but didn't command it as well in 2010. With his fluid, athletic delivery, Kelly should regain that skill once he fully grows into his body. A cracked nail on the middle finger of his right hand also dogged him all season and affected his command. While his fastball isn't a true swing-and-miss offering, his above-average 83-84 mph changeup often is--though he became over-reliant on it last year. Batters tend to swing right over the top of the change because he delivers it with the same arm speed and slot as his fastball. His curveball is a power breaking ball at times, and more of an average pitch that he just gets over for strikes at others. Kelly has an advanced feel for pitching, though he needs to trust his stuff and challenge hitters more rather than trying to live on the corners. The Padres envision Kelly becoming a frontline starter with three possible plus pitches and above-average command. He should reach Triple-A Tucson at some point in 2011, perhaps even to start the season, and his big league ETA is 2012.
• 
  Ranked Boston Red Sox #2 prospect in 2010
  The Red Sox considered Kelly the most polished high school pitcher in the 2008 draft, and they spent the No. 30 pick and $3 million to sign him away from a Tennessee football scholarship. The son of former big leaguer Pat Kelly, Casey fancied himself a shortstop and played there in his pro debut and during the second half of 2009. Kelly's stuff and aptitude were on display at the Futures Game, where he needed just nine pitches to work a perfect inning, recording all three outs on 93-94 mph fastballs. His heater usually sits at 89-92 mph but plays up because he can cut it or sink it and command it to both sides of the plate. He throws his above-average changeup with the same arm speed and slot as his fastball. His 12-to-6 curveball has plus potential as well. He repeats his fluid, athletic delivery with ease. Advanced well beyond his years, Kelly mainly needs to throw his curveball more consistently for strikes. He lacks overpowering velocity, but he doesn't need it and should throw harder as he fills out. Kelly had much more success on the mound, and Boston would have pushed him to pitch if he hadn't come to that decision on his own in December. A future frontline starter, he's ticketed for Double-A and may not need more than another year in the minors.
• 
  Ranked Boston Red Sox #6 prospect in 2009
  One of the top two-way players and two-sport athletes in the 2008 draft, Kelly had the added leverage of a scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee. After signing for a club-record $3 million as the 30th overall pick, he played only shortstop and didn't pitch in his pro debut. The Red Sox thought Kelly was the most advanced high school pitcher in the draft. His command and late life make his 90-91 mph fastball close to a plus-plus pitch, and his lean body and power spin on his curveball are promising signs for increased velocity in the future. He has tremendous feel, no surprise for someone whose father (Pat) played in the majors. As a shortstop, Kelly has fluid actions, a strong arm and projectable power. Kelly is still raw at the plate and struggled to make contact in his first taste of pro ball. Unless he squares up balls more consistently and solves breaking pitches, he won't hit for a high average or make the most of his raw power. Boston would like to see Kelly on the mound, while he prefers to play shortstop. He may do some of both at short-season Lowell or low Class A Greenville in 2009.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Texas League #7 prospect in 2011
  Kelly came to the Padres in the Adrian Gonzalez deal with the Red Sox, and his new organization had him spend a second full season at the Double-A level. A two-way player who didn't completely commit to pitching until 2010, he's not only young but also inexperienced for his age. Kelly is athletic with an easy, compact delivery. At his best, he throws a plus fastball with good sink, working in the low 90s and peaking at 96 mph. His big curveball is more often his best offering, a legitimate out pitch when it's on. He made progress with his changeup as well, though it remains inconsistent. Those who believe in Kelly saw progress with his stuff and consistency, projecting him as a potential No. 2 starter who will get better with experience. But there's a growing number of people who think he won't be more than a No. 3 because he doesn't exhibit plus stuff or command often enough.
• 
  Ranked Arizona Fall League #8 prospect in 2010
  Kelly was in the AFL last year as a shortstop after spending the 2009 season splitting time between the mound and the infield. But he was strictly a pitcher in 2010 and returned to Arizona in that role. Kelly pitched only four times in the fall before shutting it down for the year. He pitched very well in his first two starts, yielding only one earned run in nine innings before a bad third outing inflated his ERA. His fastball was in the 93-94 mph range and he mixed in a good changeup and curveball with a compact delivery. He lost a lot of development time in 2008 and 2009 by not focusing strictly on pitching, but he just turned 21 and has already reached the Double-A level.
• 
  Ranked Eastern League #10 prospect in 2010
  Kelly was the youngest EL pitcher to qualify for this list, and he was in his first year as a full-time pitcher after playing shortstop in the second half of the 2009 season. Scouts and league managers had no problem with his stuff, as he flashed three plus pitches, but his inconsistency showed. Athletic and projectable, Kelly took a step forward with his velocity, sitting at 90-94 mph and touching 95. His changeup passed his curveball as his best secondary pitch, and both had their moments. Kelly first must address his fastball command. His arm works well and his delivery is fairly compact, but he fails to throw consistent strikes and falls behind hitters too regularly. He also relies too much on his changeup.
• 
  Ranked Carolina League #6 prospect in 2009
  Kelly began the season in low Class A Greenville, but he was such an advanced pitcher for his age that he received a promotion to Salem in late May. A terrific athlete who likes playing every day as a shortstop, he returned to Greenville in July to do just that, though CL observers only saw him on the mound. His fastball ranges from 88-93 mph, as Kelly throws a lively two-seamer with sink and run as well as a four-seamer that's harder with less movement. His curveball is a plus pitch at times with occasional 12-to-6 break. His changeup is still developing and is more of a groundball pitch than a swing-and-miss offering, but he throws it with good arm speed. Kelly's athleticism helps him repeat his simple, compact delivery and command all of his pitches extremely well for his age. He's adept at working the inner half of the plate.
• 
  Ranked South Atlantic League #2 prospect in 2009
  Whether Kelly winds up on the mound or at shortstop remains uncertain, but for Greenville manager Kevin Boles, it doesn't matter. "When you look out on the field, your eyes are drawn to Kelly," Boles said. "Whatever aspect he chooses, he's going to be successful at it. He can do everything." Kelly opened this season on the mound and looked like a natural. He works at 90-94 mph and creates a good downhill plane with his fastball, with good sink. Kelly also throws a changeup and curveball. He's especially deceptive because he throws every pitch with the same arm action and repeats his delivery. A quality athlete who had a football scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee, Kelly enjoys playing every day and the Red Sox allowed him to play shortstop in the second half. Though he struggled offensively, he's an aggressive hitter with good bat speed. In the field, he has plus range, advanced footwork and obvious arm strength.
• 
  Ranked Florida Complex League #6 prospect in 2008
  Before the 2008 draft, it was unclear whether Kelly made a better football (quarterback) or baseball prospect, as he signed to play both sports at Tennessee. The Red Sox drafted him with the last pick in the first round anyway and eventually signed Kelly for $3 million to play baseball only. Now the question is whether he's better as a shortstop or pitcher. The son of former big league catcher Pat Kelly, he wants to play every day, and Boston went along with his request for his pro debut. Kelly went 0-for-16 with six strikeouts in his first four games and batted just .173/.229/.255 overall. While he struggled offensively, he does have projectable power and drew high praise for his defensive play. "He's very smooth and the ball explodes out of his hand when he throws," GCL Red Sox manager Dave Tomlin said. "You would think he has been playing shortstop professionally for years." Boston plans for Kelly to pitch in instructional league and spend time on the mound and at shortstop next season. In high school, he featured a low-90s fastball and a hard curveball. The Red Sox considered him the most advanced prep pitcher in the draft.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #45 prospect in 2013
• Ranked Baseball America's #76 prospect in 2012
• Ranked Baseball America's #31 prospect in 2011
• Ranked Baseball America's #24 prospect in 2010

• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: When the Padres shipped off Adrian Gonzalez, their best player of the last decade, they received Kelly, Anthony Rizzo and outfielder Reymond Fuentes from the Red Sox in December 2010. San Diego subsequently turned Rizzo into Andrew Cashner and Fuentes has faded, leaving Kelly as the most prominent direct link to Gonzalez. Kelly entered pro ball as the 30th pick in the 2008 draft, the recipient of a Boston draft-record $3 million bonus. At the time he viewed himself as a shortstop, and though the Red Sox preferred him on the mound, they acceded to his wishes so he'd give up a football scholarship to play quarterback at Tennessee. But after hitting .219 over two seasons he committed to pitching full-time in 2010, zooming to Double-A as a 20-year-old and getting traded that offseason. Kelly hit the ground running with Triple-A Tucson in 2012, tallying 14 strikeouts, no walks and just three runs allowed through his first two starts--but that's when his elbow started barking. He missed three months as he recovered from a strained ligament. Once healthy, Kelly resumed his march to the majors and debuted with San Diego on Aug. 27, tossing six scoreless innings against the Braves. Scouting Report: The sinking action Kelly generates on his fastball enables it to play up as a plus offering, even at his typical velocity range of 90-92 mph. At its best, the pitch features plus armside run and veers away from the barrel of lefthanders. He'll bump his four-seam fastball up to 95 mph at times, but his sinker and ability to consistently locate down and to both corners remain his strongest attributes. In his six starts with San Diego, he generated grounders on nearly 56 percent of balls put into play against him--well above the major league average of 45 percent. Kelly throws his curveball with more power now than he did two years ago. He tops out near 80 mph and generating 12-to-6 break that induces awkward swings and misses, especially when he throws it as a chase pitch ahead in the count. He must develop consistency with his mid-80s changeup, but his clean, compact delivery and athleticism auger well for improvement. Scouts think the changeup could become above average because lefties swing right over the top of the best ones. He hasn't shown much of a platoon split as a Padres minor leaguer, allowing a .700 OPS to righties compared to .720 versus lefties. The Future: Kelly shined on occasion during his first tour of duty in the big leagues, but he still finished with a 6.21 ERA. He found the strike zone frequently enough, though his command appeared rusty at times, a byproduct of making just 11 non-rehab starts in 2012. He could grow into a No. 2 starter and should be a safe bet to be at least a No. 3. He has pitched just 41 innings above Double-A, so San Diego may give him more time at Tucson to begin 2013.
• December, 2011 Scouting Report
  Background: Kelly viewed himself as a shortstop when the Red Sox paid him a franchise draft-record $3 million as the 30th overall pick in 2008. He hit just .219 in his first two pro seasons before finally acceding to Boston's wishes in 2010 that he become a full-time pitcher. He performed well enough to join Anthony Rizzo as the centerpieces of the trade that sent Adrian Gonzalez to Boston. Scouting Report: Kelly's fastball ranges from 88-92 to 93-95, with heavy sink that helps it play as an above-average pitch even at lower velocities. It helped him post the second-best groundout/airout ratio in the Double-A Texas League in 2011. He repeats a clean, compact arm action that has aided the development of his secondary pitches. Kelly improved his control and consistency with his curveball when he repeated Double-A. His 11-to-5 curve added depth and velocity, grading as a plus pitch more often, though his changeup took a small step back. He entices batters to swing over his mid-80s changeup when he throws it from the same arm slot as his fastball. He lives in the bottom of the strike zone, allowing just 18 homers in 48 Double-A starts. The Future: Kelly doesn't miss enough bats to profile as a pure ace. But with the potential for three solid to plus pitches, he fits the description of a No. 2 starter to a tee.
• August, 2010 Scouting Report
  Kelly was in the AFL last year as a shortstop after spending the 2009 season splitting time between the mound and the infield. But he was strictly a pitcher in 2010 and returned to Arizona in that role. Kelly pitched only four times in the fall before shutting it down for the year. He pitched very well in his first two starts, yielding only one earned run in nine innings before a bad third outing inflated his ERA. His fastball was in the 93-94 mph range and he mixed in a good changeup and curveball with a compact delivery. He lost a lot of development time in 2008 and 2009 by not focusing strictly on pitching, but he just turned 21 and has already reached the Double-A level.