TRACK RECORD: Guerra ranked among the top shortstop prospects in baseball when the Padres acquired him from the Red Sox as part of the Craig Kimbrel trade in Nov. 2015. Abysmal pitch recognition led to a 33 percent strikeout rate and spiraling confidence after the trade, and the Padres converted Guerra to a pitcher during 2019 spring training. Guerra sat 96-100 mph in his first bullpen session and maintained that velocity when he reported to high Class A Lake Elsinore in June. He bounded up to Double-A Amarillo in August and received a big league callup Sept. 1, less than six months after he began pitching.
SCOUTING REPORT: Guerra's wiry athleticism and plus-plus arm from shortstop translated seamlessly to the mound. His fastball sits 96-100 with late armside life through the strike zone, and he already shows feel for an above-average 87-89 mph slider. Guerra throws his fastball over the plate but doesn't have command yet and was punished for it in the majors. He is still learning to land his slider in the strike zone. Guerra struggled mentally during his struggles as a position player. Once he began pitching, club officials noted he started smiling again.
THE FUTURE: The Padres hope Guerra will develop average command and control in time. If he does, he has the stuff to be a closer.
The Red Sox signed Guerra for $250,000 as an international amateur and the Padres acquired him along with three others in exchange for Craig Kimbrel after the 2015 season. Wiry, athletic and rangy, Guerra looks the part at shortstop but regressed at the plate at high Class A Lake Elsinore in 2016 so much it affected his play on defense, dropping him from the system's No. 1 prospect to, in the eyes of some evaluators, a non-prospect. Guerra struck out 141 times in 105 games with swings so out of line with incoming pitches that some scouts questioned his eyesight. Others saw an abrupt load, swing that didn't stay in the zone and persistent inability to adjust, grading him a poor hitter overall. Guerra visibly appeared defeated in the box by mid-June and brought it onto the field with him, committing an organization-worst 30 errors. He showed exceptional lateral range and double-plus arm strength but frequently booted routine grounders, while inconsistent footwork and arm action resulted in wild throws. Guerra was placed on the disabled list for the final month of the season with an unspecified, non-baseball-related ailment. He will repeat the California League in 2017 to try and re-establish his everyday potential.
When the Red Sox signed Guerra for $250,000 out of Panama in 2012, he showed advanced instincts and defensive tools while also displaying a solid swing that offered an offensive foundation. After a year in the Dominican Summer League, he made a strong impression on Rookie-level Gulf Coast League observers in 2014, especially for his work in the field and high baseball acumen. GCL Red Sox manager Tom Kotchman called Guerra the best defensive shortstop he had in 35 years, and evaluators for other organizations back the view of Guerra as a potential Gold Glover at shortstop. His offensive development is more shocking, and he has advanced faster than anyone anticipated. The Red Sox believed that Guerra could become at least a gap hitter, but at low Class A Greenville in 2015, he turned heads with the frequency with which he showed pull power. He ranked seventh in the South Atlantic League with 15 home runs. The Padres targeted him as a key--along with center fielder Manuel Margot--in their fourplayer haul from Boston when they traded closer Craig Kimbrel. With his easy, graceful actions, lean, athletic frame and plus arm, Guerra fits what the current Padres brain trust seeks in a shortstop. His game features an element of electricity, both in terms of his ability to make standout plays on defense and his ability to barrel fastballs. His on-field instincts further amplify his potential impact. The combination of plus defense and surprising home run potential at shortstop offer considerable ceiling, though his high strikeout rate (23.5 percent), particularly against lefties (33.8 percent), raises questions about just how much of an impact his bat can make at the big league level. Scouts are also split on whether Guerra's power is sustainable. Many who watched him in the South Atlantic League saw him as a future 8-10 home run hitter, not the plus power shortstop he showed in Greenville. But he improved his plate discipline considerably and has room to grow physically, so others see his power spike as sustainable. If his plate approach continues to improve his ceiling is that of a championshipcaliber shortstop. Guerra's offensive improvement is attributed to his aptitude and intelligence, portending future adjustments are possible when necessary. On defense, he combines plus arm strength with pinpoint accuracy and the ability to make throws from all angles. He has smooth hands, reads hops well and has a knack for making the difficult play look routine at shortstop. Guerra gets plus grades for character, with what one evaluator called championship makeup. His weakest tool is his below-average speed, but his instincts, first-step quickness and ability to read the ball off the bat gives him excellent range. The Padres were desperate for a shortstop in the major leagues in 2015, so Guerra may be on the fast track. Compared with the Padres' shortstop holdovers, Guerra is a better defender than Ruddy Giron and has much more offensive potential than Jose Rondon, making him the organization's shortstop of the future. Guerra's ability to handle a crucial defensive position, coupled with his bat potential, give him an excellent opportunity to be at least a future solid-average regular. If the power spike he showed in 2015 is a sign of things to come, he could be even better than that. Guerra may not start the season at Double-A San Antonio, but he could finish up there with an eye on a mid-2017 ETA.
Rookie-level Gulf Coast League manager Tom Kotchman called Guerra the best defensive shortstop he's had in 35 years, and evaluators for other organizations back the view of Guerra as a potential Gold Glover at shortstop. He exudes confidence and control in all his actions, with an easy lefthanded swing that allows Red Sox evaluators to dream about his upside as a shortstop with above-average offensive potential and elite defense. He combines plus arm strength with pinpoint accuracy and the ability to make throws from all angles. Though he walked just five times against 42 strikeouts in the GCL, he showed the ability to drive fastballs with pull power at age 18. His weakest tool is his below-average speed. Guerra's makeup and game instincts have team officials convinced he could experience developmental leaps in the future. His bat lags behind his glove, so it's possible he could be ticketed for short-season Lowell in 2015, but long term, Guerra has the best package of tools of any shortstop in the organization.
The Red Sox loved Guerra's upside when they signed him as a 16-year-old out of Panama for $250,000 in 2012. They saw a player with the athleticism, the internal clock and arm strength to play shortstop, plus a line-drive, lefthanded stroke that works against both lefties and righties. Guerra's performance in his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2013 was modest, however, as he hit .248/.356/.290 with just nine extra-base hits (all doubles). He carried a strong DSL finish into an impressive performance in instructional league, validating impressions of his maturity for his age. "He opened some eyes in instructional league," said one evaluator. As he fills out, Guerra's upside is that of a shortstop who can contribute on both sides of the ball, though amateur scouts pegged him as a a player with below-average speed and average arm strength, attributes that could signal a move to second base one day. If he adds a bit more power to his arsenal and continues to counteract fringe run times with strong baserunning instincts, he might make it at the keystone. The Red Sox probably will send Guerra to the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2014.
Minor League Top Prospects
Ozzie Albies and Jorge Mateo are both potentially above-average defenders, but Guerra is the shortstop who makes the hard play look easy. Almost by acclamation, he was considered the best defender in the league. Guerra is a below-average runner who still manages to be a plus defender thanks to an excellent first step, great feet and some of the best hands in the minors. He has a double-plus arm as well, but he receives criticism from some quarters for committing errors while trying to make the impossible play, rather than putting the ball in his pocket. No one expected to see Guerra hit 15 home runs this year, and most evaluators see him as a future 5-10 home run hitter, but he has shown the ability to ambush fastballs when he gets into favorable counts. His plate discipline took a step forward this year, and his hard contact rate followed suit. As a shortstop with excellent defense and the ability to hit most any fastball, Guerra has the building blocks to be a potentially average hitter with the glove to be an impact shortstop.
The Red Sox signed Guerra for $250,000, and after a year in the Dominican Summer League, he made a strong impression on GCL observers, especially for his work in the field and high baseball acumen. Guerra makes up for below-average speed with his quickness, reads off the bat and a nose for the ball. He has smooth hands, reads hops and has a knack for making the difficult play look routine at shortstop. His arm strength has increased since signing and is now plus, with the ability to make accurate throws from different angles. "He's the best shortstop that I've had in 35 years," said Red Sox manager Tom Kotchman, a veteran manager and scout. "I had him and (Erick) Aybar at the same age. Aybar was a better runner, but this guy, he is so good and so smooth defensively." Additional strength helped Guerra's offensive game this year, though his defense is still ahead of his bat. His hands stay short to the ball, though he doesn't have much power, so he will have to learn to use the whole field and take a more patient approach to improve his on-base skills.
Top 100 Rankings
Best Tools List
Rated Best Infield Arm in the San Diego Padres in 2019
Rated Best Infield Arm in the San Diego Padres in 2018
Scouting Reports
TRACK RECORD: Guerra was considered an elite shortstop prospect when the Padres acquired him from the Red Sox as part of the trade for Craig Kimbrel after the 2015 season. Abysmal pitch recognition sunk Guerra’s chances of becoming a viable hitter, so the Padres moved him to the mound in 2019. Guerra reached the majors that year and returned to San Diego in 2020, although success eluded him with a 10.13 ERA in 14 appearances.
SCOUTING REPORT: Guerra has incredible arm strength but is still learning how to pitch. He generates 98-99 mph fastballs with stunning ease and has touched 102. He complements his heater with an 88-91 mph power slider that is his go-to strikeout pitch and gets righthanded hitters chasing off the outer half. While his raw ingredients are promising, Guerra still has kinks to work out. His fastball is very straight and he often leaves it over the middle, resulting in a lot of hard contact. He also lacks an effective changeup and gets crushed by lefties, who have hit .386/.420/.659 against him. Guerra has average control, but he still is learning to work the edges of the plate and command his pitches.
THE FUTURE: Guerra’s arm strength gives him promise. He’ll need to improve his command and find a pitch for lefties to be more than a low-leverage relief option.
TRACK RECORD: Guerra ranked among the top prospects in baseball when the Padres acquired him from the Red Sox as part of the Craig Kimbrel trade in Nov. 2015. Abysmal pitch recognition led to a 33 percent strikeout rate and spiraling confidence after the trade, and the Padres converted Guerra to a pitcher during 2019 spring training. Guerra sat 96-100 mph in his first bullpen session and maintained that velocity when he reported to high Class A Lake Elsinore in June. He bounded up to Double-A Amarillo in August and received a big league callup Sept. 1, less than six months after he started pitching.
SCOUTING REPORT: Guerra’s wiry athleticism and plus-plus arm from shortstop translated seamlessly to the mound. His fastball sits 96-100 with late armside life through the strike zone, and he already shows feel for an above-average 87-89 mph slider. Guerra throws his fastball over the plate but doesn’t have command yet and was punished for it in the majors. He is still learning to land his slider in the strike zone. Guerra struggled mentally during his struggles as a position player. Once he began pitching, club officials noted he started smiling again.
THE FUTURE: The Padres hope Guerra will develop average command and control in time. If he does, he has the stuff to be a closer.
TRACK RECORD: Guerra ranked among the top shortstop prospects in baseball when the Padres acquired him from the Red Sox as part of the Craig Kimbrel trade in Nov. 2015. Abysmal pitch recognition led to a 33 percent strikeout rate and spiraling confidence after the trade, and the Padres converted Guerra to a pitcher during 2019 spring training. Guerra sat 96-100 mph in his first bullpen session and maintained that velocity when he reported to high Class A Lake Elsinore in June. He bounded up to Double-A Amarillo in August and received a big league callup Sept. 1, less than six months after he began pitching.
SCOUTING REPORT: Guerra's wiry athleticism and plus-plus arm from shortstop translated seamlessly to the mound. His fastball sits 96-100 with late armside life through the strike zone, and he already shows feel for an above-average 87-89 mph slider. Guerra throws his fastball over the plate but doesn't have command yet and was punished for it in the majors. He is still learning to land his slider in the strike zone. Guerra struggled mentally during his struggles as a position player. Once he began pitching, club officials noted he started smiling again.
THE FUTURE: The Padres hope Guerra will develop average command and control in time. If he does, he has the stuff to be a closer.
Career Transactions
Tampa Bay Rays sent RHP Javy Guerra outright to Durham Bulls.
Tampa Bay Rays sent RHP Javy Guerra outright to Durham Bulls.
Tampa Bay Rays designated RHP Javy Guerra for assignment.
Tampa Bay Rays selected the contract of RHP Javy Guerra from Durham Bulls.
Tampa Bay Rays activated RHP Javy Guerra.
Tampa Bay Rays selected the contract of RHP Javy Guerra from Durham Bulls.
Tampa Bay Rays sent RHP Javy Guerra outright to Durham Bulls.
Tampa Bay Rays sent RHP Javy Guerra outright to Durham Bulls.
Tampa Bay Rays designated RHP Javy Guerra for assignment.
Milwaukee Brewers traded RHP Javy Guerra to Tampa Bay Rays for Player To Be Named Later.
Milwaukee Brewers traded RHP Javy Guerra to Tampa Bay Rays for Player To Be Named Later.
Milwaukee Brewers traded RHP Javy Guerra to Tampa Bay Rays for Player To Be Named Later.
Milwaukee Brewers traded RHP Javy Guerra to Tampa Bay Rays for Player To Be Named Later.
Milwaukee Brewers designated RHP Javy Guerra for assignment.
Panama activated RHP Javy Guerra.
Download our app
Read the newest magazine issue right on your phone