Lance McCullers

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Houston Astros #11 prospect in 2015
  McCullers signed for $2.5 million as part of the Astros' 2012 draft class, the first under the current regime led by general manager Jeff Luhnow. The son of the former major league reliever of the same name, McCullers is not as tall as the other top-shelf pitchers in the organization, but he has a power fastball that touches 98 mph with a double-plus breaking ball that has been described within the organization as a curveball and outside of it as a slider. One thing is for certain: It is a strikeout pitch--but only when he knows where it's going. Well below-average control remains one of McCullers' bigger issues, which is in part due to a crossfire delivery. He doesn't always finish upright and doesn't get great extension, though back soreness--considered minor but enough to send him to the disabled list in June--may have contributed. He walked a career-worst 5.2 batters per nine innings in 2014, and his career rate of 4.6 is untenable for a righthanded starter. His changeup has improved to flash average in pro ball. With his delivery, poor control and competitive nature, McCullers probably faces a future in the bullpen. Just 21, he might begin 2015 back at high Class A Lancaster, if only to start the season.
• 
  Ranked Houston Astros #5 prospect in 2014
  The number 41 fits the McCullers family. The Phillies selected Lance Sr. 41st overall in the 1982 draft, and he wore No. 41 at the peak of his seven-year major league career. The Astros drafted Lance Jr. 41st overall in 2012 and signed him for $2.5 million, more than his father earned in his big league career. McCullers has two potential 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. He fires a 93-98 mph fastball that sometimes he struggles to keep in the zone because of its excellent life. His breaking ball can be described as either a curveball or slider, but either way it has 11-to-5 downward movement. At 81-85 mph it's harder than the average curveball. He's equally effective against lefties and righties because of the power and bite on his breaking ball. Scouts wonder if McCullers will wind up in the bullpen, because his changeup is well below average now. He throws it because he knows he has to develop it, but it lacks deception, separation or movement. Teams don't usually send top pitching prospects to a hitter's haven like high Class A Lancaster--at least not for long--but McCullers, Vince Velasquez, Andrew Thurman and maybe Mark Appel could be headed there in 2014. Long-term, McCullers could end up as a front-line starter if his changeup develops. If not, he could be a closer, like his father.
• 
  Ranked Houston Astros #4 prospect in 2013
  McCullers' father Lance Sr. was drafted 41st overall in 1982 and pitched seven seasons in the majors. Lance Jr. went in the same spot 30 years later, with his high price tag helping him fall that far. He signed for $2.5 million, the biggest bonus in franchise history for a pitcher. Powerful and athletic, McCullers flashed two of the best pitches in the 2012 draft class: a fastball that reaches 100 mph and sits at 93-97 late into games, and a slider with depth and late bite that hits the mid-80s. His changeup shows signs of becoming an average pitch. McCullers pitched sparingly early in his prep career and didn't become a full-time starter until 2012, when he showed a better feel for pitching to go with his electric stuff. He's still new to a starter's routine and will have to improve his control and command to stay in that role. He has effort in his delivery, but scouts credit his Jesuit High (Tampa) pitching coach, 1997 first-round pick Geoff Goetz, with improving it. Some scouts believe McCullers will wind up in the bullpen like his father. The Astros will give him every chance to remain in the rotation, and he could be a frontline starter if he does. He'll begin his first full pro season in low Class A.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #13 prospect in 2012 draft
  McCullers' father was a second-round pick in 1982 out of Tampa's Catholic High and had a seven-year major league career, primarily as a reliever. His son emerged early on as one of the top members of the 2012 draft class and at one time rated as the class' top player. Built similarly to his father but bigger at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds, McCullers has a strong, athletic body and pitches with power and aggression. He was used mostly as a reliever the last two years in high school and had his outings limited to two- or three-innings regularly prior to this season. Now starting, he's learned to go through a lineup repeatedly and has improved his strike-throwing ability with both his fastball and his slider. Some scouts put 70 grades on both pitches, and that might be selling McCullers short. His fastball sits 94-96 mph deep into games, with reports that he's hit 100 several times this spring. His slider, also thrown with power in the mid-80s, has good bite and depth. McCullers has thrown a changeup but it's an unnecessary third pitch in high school. Most evaluators believed McCullers had no shot to stay in a rotation as a professional, but he's started to change some minds this spring with his improved pitchability. The majority of scouts still believe he's a future reliever, though, which makes it harder to find a first-round fit. McCullers has committed to hit and pitch at Florida if he slides too far.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked California League #20 prospect in 2014
  McCullers' raw stuff matches up well with anyone in the Cal League. He throws lively fastballs in the low 90s and can reach 96 mph. His curveball--often labeled a slider because of its 80-plus mph power--can have such late, violent break that it can make hitters look bad, even in counts where they know to look for it. He also does have a useable changeup, but it's clearly his third option. As enticing as McCullers looked when he was throwing well, he could be frustratingly wild at times. He pitches with a high-effort delivery, which leads to erratic control. His walk rate of 5.2 per nine innings rate was the second highest among Cal League pitchers who threw at least 90 innings. As the son of the former big leaguer of the same name, McCullers does show baseball intelligence. However, he tends to overanalyze and get away from pitching off his fastball, and he sometimes struggles to control his emotions on the mound. His stuff and demeanor may point toward a career as a closer, but he'll need more consistent command regardless of role.
• 
  Ranked Midwest League #5 prospect in 2013
  The son of the ex-big leaguer of the same name, McCullers has one of the best two-pitch combos in the minors with a hard 95-99 mph fastball and a hard-breaking power curveball. Both are potential 70 or better pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale, good enough that scouts speculate that he could help a big league club right now as a reliever. If he?s going to make it as a starter, McCullers has lots of work to do. His changeup lacks deception and the proper separation from his fastball. It has improved, but it?s still a well-below-average pitch. McCullers has work to do on developing his feel for pitching as well, which isn?t surprising since he?s new to starting. He started only for one season in high school.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #77 prospect in 2014
• Ranked Baseball America's #50 prospect in 2013

• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: McCullers' father Lance Sr. was drafted 41st overall in 1982 and pitched seven seasons in the majors. Lance Jr. went in the same spot 30 years later, with his high price tag helping him fall that far. He signed for $2.5 million, the biggest bonus in franchise history for a pitcher. Scouting Report: Powerful and athletic, McCullers flashed two of the best pitches in the 2012 draft class: a fastball that reaches 100 mph and sits at 93-97 late into games, and a slider with depth and late bite that hits the mid-80s. His changeup shows signs of becoming an average pitch. McCullers pitched sparingly early in his prep career and didn't become a full-time starter until 2012, when he showed a better feel for pitching to go with his electric stuff. He's still new to a starter's routine and will have to improve his control and command to stay in that role. He has effort in his delivery, but scouts credit his Jesuit High (Tampa) pitching coach, 1997 first-round pick Geoff Goetz, with improving it. The Future: Some scouts believe McCullers will wind up in the bullpen like his father. The Astros will give him every chance to remain in the rotation, and he could be a frontline starter if he does. He'll begin his first full pro season in low Class A.