Carson Kelly

Organization Prospect Rankings

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  Ranked Arizona Diamondbacks #4 prospect in 2019
  Track Record: Drafted as a third baseman by the Cardinals, Kelly converted to catcher in 2014 and was hailed as Yadier Molina's heir apparent. But with Molina showing no signs of letting up, the Cardinals wanted Kelly playing everyday and sent him back to Triple-A Memphis in 2018 for a third straight season. In December, the Cardinals traded Kelly to the D-backs as part of the Paul Goldschmidt trade.
  
  Scouting Report: Kelly is athletic in the box with a sound swing, a good approach and occasional power. While he hasn't had a chance to show it yet at the major league level--he has received only sporadic at-bats during his big league stints the past three years--he projects as a bottom-of-the-order hitter with on-base skills. Some evaluators believe his transition to catching meant his offensive development was put on hold, so much so that his bat could have more upside. Kelly has long been regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the minors. He is a good receiver with a strong arm and an athletic base, and his makeup and baseball intelligence give him a chance to impact all aspects of the game.
  
  The Future: The trade to Arizona gives Kelly a path to an everyday job. With only Alex Avila and John Ryan Murphy ahead of him, Kelly should be the Diamondbacks' starting catcher soon.
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  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #3 prospect in 2018
  Kelly became the highest-drafted Oregon prep player since 1996 when the Cardinals selected him 86th overall in 2012 Drafted as a third baseman, Kelly converted to catcher after his first full season. He took to it with vigor, soaking up instruction from Mike Matheny and Yadier Molina and evolving into a premium defender. Kelly received a callup for the second straight season in 2017, and started seven of the Cardinals' final eight games. Kelly remains a defense-first catcher, but the gap between his glove and his bat has shrunk. Behind the plate he shows soft hands, pristine footwork, good flexibility and a plus arm. He excels at game-calling and managing his staff, giving him the total package of a top-tier defensive backstop. Kelly's biggest development has come on offense. Early in his career he was overaggressive early in counts, but he has become more patient and better at hunting fastballs he can drive. The result was a career high for home runs and OPS and walk-to-strikeout ratio at Triple-A Memphis in 2017. He is still working on finding consistency in his load and timing but has a chance to be an average hitter with average power. Molina is signed through 2020, but Kelly remains his heir. He will have a chance to make his first Opening Day roster in 2018 and serve as Molina's backup before taking over.
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  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #4 prospect in 2017
  When Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, a former Gold Glove winner, authored the chapter on catching in 'The Cardinal Way' handbook, he listed traits any good receiver must have. Kelly memorized and tried to mimic all of them. A third baseman when the Cardinals drafted him Kelly has morphed into a Cardinals catcher straight out of central casting. He reached the majors in September and doubled off Antonio Bastardo in his first at-bat. After two seasons consumed by learning to catch, the Cardinals felt Kelly's promotion to Double-A Springfield was a chance to reveal he could hit. He took advantage. Kelly generates reasonable power with his strength and pendulum swing. He's been more selective at each level and the gap between his bat and his glove shrank. Kelly has made himself into a double-plus backstop with smooth framing, quick transitions, a strong arm and nimbleness. He is ready to be Yadier Molina's backup if needed in 2017, but the Cardinals would prefer he start every day at Memphis instead of rusting on their bench.
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  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #10 prospect in 2016
  Kelly was drafted and signed for an above-slot $1.6 million in 2012 as a third baseman before the Cardinals decided to shift him behind the plate prior to the 2014 season. He struggled through most of 2015 before a hitting five home runs and 10 doubles in his final 48 games. His younger brother Parker was drafted in 2015 by the Cardinals but didn't sign and is attending Oregon. Kelly's glove is ahead of his bat, and he picked up plenty of pointers in spring training when he spent time in big league camp learning from manager Mike Matheny and Yadier Molina. Kelly has an above-average arm that plays up thanks to his accuracy, and he threw out 36 percent of basestealers in 2015. He's a solid receiver with good hands who handles velocity well. At the plate, Kelly adjusted after being overmatched most of the season and started driving the ball more in the second half, using the whole field more. He uses a strength-based swing, and he needs to keep working to improve his approach, balancing between aggression and working more walks. He's a poor runner. A backup catcher at worst if he continues to develop, Kelly has defenders in the organization who believe his glove will buy time for his bat will develop. He'll move up to Double-A Springfield in 2016 and has a clear path to become Molina's successor--if he hits enough.
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  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #13 prospect in 2015
  The Cardinals signed Kelly for $1.6 million in 2012 after making him a second-round pick. Two years later, St. Louis moved him from third base to a full-time catching role at low Class A Peoria, and managers appreciated the way he embraced the change. Kelly's strong arm held the running game in check, and he threw out 33 percent of basestealers in 2014, though he also was charged with 13 passed balls. Kelly appeared to have lost about 15 pounds by season's end, and five of his six homers came in the season's first two months. The Cardinals believe they spotted the flaw. Kelly's eyes tended to stop tracking pitches late in the zone, creating a vulnerability on late movement. His sturdy frame has room to grow, and St. Louis is optimistic that he'll power more balls to the gaps and over the fence once he adds loft to his swing and adjusts to the rigors of catching. Kelly still drew walks and had a strong instructional league in 2014, so look for him to advance to high Class A Palm Beach in 2015.
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  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #11 prospect in 2014
  The Cardinals pushed the then-18 Kelly to a full-season club to start 2013, an aggressive move that needed a correction when he moved down a peg to short-season State College in June. There, he took off. A second-round pick in 2012, Kelly was the highest-drafted Oregon prep player in 15 years and received the highest bonus ($1.6 million) in his round that year. He has a sturdy frame that has started to add muscle with maturity. He has a calm, quiet approach at the plate with a furious, balanced swing. He gets the barrel to pitches in the zone and does not strike out often for a player with his latent power. As Kelly ages and gains strength, the Cardinals expect the power will come, and the eye for a high on-base percentage should remain. At third base, Kelly's best tool is his arm. He moves forward well and handles routine grounders, but his range is limited, which prompted the Cardinals to try a conversion to catcher during instructional league. Kelly will report to spring training to gain more experience behind the plate. In limited game exposure, he appeared comfortable and agile enough for the position. If his bat develops and his move behind the plate takes, he could grow into a top-ranked prospect.
• 
  Ranked St. Louis Cardinals #9 prospect in 2013
  Though he was the Cardinals' sixth pick (second round) in 2012, Kelly tied for the second-highest bonus ($1.6 million) in their draft class. The highest-drafted Oregon prep player since 1996, he drew some interest as a pitcher with a low-90s fastball. St. Louis coveted his power at the plate, which he showed off by hitting nine homers at Rookie-level Johnson City. Kelly has a sturdy build and has already matured into muscle. He has a calm, quiet stance at the plate and an easy, balanced swing that creates natural carry. His batting average sagged as he struggled with quality secondary pitches and the overall speed of the pro game, but he has the tools to develop into a solid hitter. Kelly has a strong arm and reliable hands at third base. He doesn't run well and will have to enhance his lateral movement to remain at the hot corner. Kelly won't turn 19 until the middle of his first full pro season and there's no need to rush him. Patrick Wisdom, a 2012 supplemental first-rounder, is ticketed for third base at the Cardinals' new low Class A Peoria affiliate, so Kelly likely will head to short-season State College. He could make his full-season debut by the end of the year.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #43 prospect in 2012 draft
  Oregon hasn't produced a high school player in the first three rounds since 1998 when righthander Steve Bechler went to the Orioles, but Kelly has the talent to end that streak. He is a two-way player, but more scouts prefer him as a position player. He's a below-average runner, but his other tools are solid. Kelly has a strong build and is already pretty well filled out. He has a nice line-drive stroke with good loft and power potential. He's not flashy, but he's a steady defender at third base and has a strong arm. Some teams would like to try Kelly behind the plate. On the mound, he sits in the 90-92 mph range and throws a curveball and changeup. The Oregon recruit is young for the class and won't turn 18 until mid-July but shows excellent maturity and leadership.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Pacific Coast League #7 prospect in 2017
  Drafted as a third baseman out of high school, Kelly learned to play catcher after turning pro. He broke out offensively at Double-A in 2016 and continued to develop this season in the PCL with enhanced selectivity and a career-high 10 homer runs. "When he's on time, he's dangerous," Memphis manager Stubby Clapp said. "It's just being consistent with his load phase and squaring up the ball." A big reason why the Cardinals in late July called up Kelly, who is lauded for his ability to work with a pitching staff, is because he's the heir apparent to Yadier Molina. He has a good arm and good footwork with a durable body, but his ability to call a game could separate him from other young catchers.
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  Ranked Arizona Fall League #11 prospect in 2016
  While Kelly showed a good approach at the plate with gap-to-gap power, batting .286/.387/.455, it's his defense that stood out for scouts covering the Fall League this year. In only his third season behind the plate after starting his career at the hot corner, Kelly is a solid-average defensive catcher with a plus arm, recording 1.9 second pop times. He could become a plus defender with more experience, and pitchers like throwing to him. Kelly was unquestionably the top catching prospect in the AFL this year.
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  Ranked Texas League #11 prospect in 2016
  Kelly was clearly the most well-rounded catching prospect in the TL. Multiple managers and scouts see him as a future everyday catcher. Kelly's throwing arm is average to above-average and he threw out 33 percent of basestealers in the league, but that's his weakest tool behind the plate. He blocks balls well and is a solid pitch presenter. Defensively he's an above-average catcher. Offensively, Kelly is notable because he an average hitter with near-average power.
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  Ranked Midwest League #13 prospect in 2014
  A former third baseman, Kelly wasn't the only catcher conversion in the MWL this year. Joining him were former shortstops Marcus Littlewood of Clinton and Kyle Farmer of Great Lakes. For his part, Kelly split time behind the plate at Peoria with 2012 sandwich pick Steve Bean. Kelly clearly wore down as the season progressed. His arm strength waned and he struggled with passed balls, while some scouts estimated he lost 10-15 pounds during the season. Before wearing out, Kelly showed good athleticism behind the plate, a strong arm, receiving skills and an idea of how to call a game. At the plate, he has a chance to produce average power with excellent contact skills and an ability to draw a walk.
• 
  Ranked New York-Penn League #5 prospect in 2013
  The first Oregon prep player to be drafted inside the top three rounds since 1998, Kelly started his first full season in low Class A and struggled, but he was solid after a demotion to the NY-P. A former two-way player in high school, Kelly?s plus arm is an asset at third base, where he showed the ability to make plays on slow rollers and handled balls to his backhand side well. His hands and actions are fine, but his range isn?t great, and he projects as a fringy to average third baseman. Kelly?s calling card is his righthanded bat. He has a quiet approach and good feel for his barrel, helping him make consistent hard contact and limiting his strikeouts. He also flashes plus raw power, though he?s still learning to tap into it in game action. As he develops physically, Kelly has a chance to be a plus hitter with solid-average to plus power, but he?s still a long way from reaching his ceiling. He?s a below-average runner. He turned 19 in July, but even so Kelly impressed NY-P managers with his maturity and work ethic.
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  Ranked National League #13 prospect in 2012
  The Cardinals made Kelly the first Oregon high school player taken in the first three rounds of the draft since Steve Bechler in 1998. He signed for $1.6 million, the highest bonus amount of the second round, and reported to Johnson City, where he smacked nine home runs despite hitting just .221. Part of Kelly's struggles to hit for average can be attributed to his youth, as he turned 18 in mid-July. Johnson City manager Oliver Marmol said that Kelly, given his amateur background, struggled with the speed of the game initially. "He still could hit a good fastball," Marmol said, "but this was his first time seeing spin and good changeups, so it took him a while to get used to seeing them and laying off." Kelly showcases a solid line-drive stroke and enough loft to drive the ball for long hits. He uses a quiet hitting setup without a lot of movement, though some don't like that he moves his hands up and down as a timing mechanism to start his swing. Kelly doesn't run well and won't be more than playable at the hot corner if he doesn't enhance his lateral quickness, but he compensates to a degree with good hands and above-average arm strength.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #55 prospect in 2018
• Ranked Baseball America's #65 prospect in 2017

• July, 2018 Scouting Report
  Kelly failed to make the Cardinals out of spring training and went just 2-for-25 in two stints in the majors this year. Despite his struggles, Kelly continues to hit well in Triple-A and evaluators see no red flags in his swing or approach, predicting he can still grow into a solid hitter with double-digit home runs. Kelly still grades as a potential above-average defender with a plus arm, with his timing blocking balls in the dirt the main thing he needs to improve.
• December, 2016 Scouting Report
  Background: When Cardinals manager Mike Matheny, a former Gold Glove winner, authored the chapter on catching in 'The Cardinal Way' handbook, he listed traits any good receiver must have. Kelly memorized and tried to mimic all of them. A third baseman when the Cardinals drafted and signed him for an above-slot $1.6 million bonus, Kelly has morphed into a Cardinals catcher straight out of central casting. He reached the majors in September and doubled off Antonio Bastardo in his first at-bat. Scouting Report: After two seasons consumed by learning to catch, the Cardinals felt Kelly's promotion to Double-A Springfield was a chance to reveal he could hit. He took advantage. Kelly generates reasonable power with his strength and pendulum swing. He had a homer robbed from him in the Futures Game in spacious Petco Park. He's been more selective at each level and the gap between his bat and his glove shrank. His glove is double-plus. Kelly has made himself into a gifted receiver with smooth framing, quick transitions, a strong arm and nimbleness. He won a minor league Gold Glove at his position, and in every clubhouse had the gravitational pull of a leader. He keeps a black book on hitters to help him be conscientious and creative when calling a game.
  
  The Future: Kelly is ready to be Yadier Molina's backup if needed in 2017, but the Cardinals would prefer he start every day at Memphis instead of rusting on their bench. They see him as Molina's complement in coming years--and then heir.
• August, 2016 Scouting Report
  While Kelly showed a good approach at the plate with gap-to-gap power, batting .286/.387/.455, it's his defense that stood out for scouts covering the Fall League this year. In only his third season behind the plate after starting his career at the hot corner, Kelly is a solid-average defensive catcher with a plus arm, recording 1.9 second pop times. He could become a plus defender with more experience, and pitchers like throwing to him. Kelly was unquestionably the top catching prospect in the AFL this year.
• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: Though he was the Cardinals' sixth pick (second round) in 2012, Kelly tied for the second-highest bonus ($1.6 million) in their draft class. The highest-drafted Oregon prep player since 1996, he also drew some interest as a pitcher with a low-90s fastball and good changeup. St. Louis coveted his power at the plate, which he showed off by hitting nine home runs at Rookie-level Johnson City, and signed him away from a commitment to Oregon. Scouting Report: Kelly has a sturdy build that has already matured into muscle. He has a calm, quiet stance at the plate and an easy, balanced swing that creates natural carry. Some scouts don't like his preswing hand movement he uses for a timing mechanism, but that's fixable. His batting average sagged as he struggled with quality secondary pitches and the overall speed of the pro game, but he has the tools to develop into a solid hitter. He has good arm strength and reliable hands at third base. He doesn't run well and will have to enhance his lateral movement to remain at third. The Future: Kelly won't turn 19 until the middle of his first full pro season and there's no need to rush him. Patrick Wisdom, a 2012 supplemental first-rounder, is ticketed for third base at the Cardinals' new low Class A Peoria affiliate, so Kelly likely will head to short-season State College. He could make his full-season debut by the end of the year.