Rhett Lowder Stats & Scouting Report

IP	30.2
ERA	1.17
WHIP	1.27
BB/9	4.11
SO/9	6.46

Full name Rhett Hamilton Lowder
Born 03/08/2002 in Albemarle, NC
Profile Ht.: 6'2" / Wt.: 200 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Wake Forest
Drafted in the 1st round (7th overall) by the Cincinnati Reds in 2023 (signed for $5,700,000).

View Draft Report

School: Wake Forest Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.4
BA Grade:55/High
Tools:Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Changeup: 60. Control: 60.

While Wake Forest has become a pitching factory in recent years, Lowder became the first player in program history to be named ACC pitcher of the year after a 2022 season where he posted a 3.08 ERA in 99.1 innings, with a 25.1% strikeout rate. He followed that up with a dominant showing for Team USA’s Collegiate National Team during the summer, and then in 2023 was among the most consistent pitchers in the country as the Friday night starter for one of the best Wake Forest teams in program history—again winning ACC pitcher of the year honors. Lowder posted a 1.87 ERA through 19 starts and 120.1 innings, with a career-high 30.4% strikeout rate, career-low 5.1% walk rate. He threw at least six innings in 15 of his 19 starts.. He’s large and physical with a 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame, an up-tempo windup and a lower, three-quarter slot. There are pitchers with “louder” pure stuff, but it would be hard to find a pitcher with better feel for a legitimate three-pitch mix. He throws a fastball that sits 93-94 mph and has been up to 97 with tons of running life and has pounded the zone at a 70% or better rate in each of the last two seasons. He also has great feel to land a mid-80s, sweepy slider and a mid-80s changeup. Both are consistent swing-and-miss offerings and seem to play off of each other nicely—whether that’s due to Lowder tunneling the trio well or because he simply commands them at will and throws each around a third of the time. Lowder might be nitpicked by some teams because of his running fastball, his relative lack of projection and an extreme-open toe, crossfire landing. Still, he’s posted, has above-average stuff across the board and is one of the safest starting profiles you’ll find in the class.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

BA Grade/Risk: 55/Medium.

Track Record: Lowder is one of the most accomplished college pitchers in recent memory. The Wake Forest ace matched LSU’s Paul Skenes pitch for pitch when they faced off in the 2023 College World Series. Lowder departed after seven scoreless innings in a game LSU eventually won 1-0 in 11 innings. Lowder posted a 1.87 ERA and set Wake Forest records with 15 wins and 143 strikeouts in 2023, the year the Reds drafted him seventh overall. Skenes, the No. 1 overall pick, was the only college pitcher drafted higher. It was a rocky start to 2024 for Lowder—he ran up a 5.04 ERA through June at High-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga—but he finished the season with a flourish in Cincinnati. His 1.17 ERA in six big league starts was the best debut by a Reds pitcher since Tom Browning posted a 0.95 ERA in his first six starts between 1984 and 1985.

Scouting Report: It’s hard to describe Lowder as a pitcher without seeming to belittle his stuff, because the sum of the parts is significantly better than any individual pitch grade. His success is predicated on staying out of hitters’ counts, keeping opponents guessing and avoiding hard contact. Early in the season, Lowder tried to beat hitters in the zone with his four-seam fastball, but he found that he was more effective when he relied more heavily on his sinker and secondaries. Lowder has double-plus control. His 68% strike percentage was one of the best marks in the minors in 2024. Lowder lacks a true out pitch, so he relies on getting weak contact and ground balls. His inability to finish off hitters with two strikes is his biggest concern and opportunity for improvement going forward. His average 92-94 mph four-seamer is best when he’s getting on top of bats, and it’s almost exclusively a top-of-the-zone chase pitch against righthanded hitters. He also uses it effectively away in the zone against lefties. His average sinker pairs well with his above-average mid-80s slider. He tries to work armside and down with his sinker and spins his slider glove side and down. He’s able to spot his above-average 86-88 mph changeup in and under righthanded hitters’ hands while working down and away from lefties. Nothing Lowder throws has exceptional movement or velocity, but his ability to avoid the middle of the zone, change hitters’ eye levels with four-seamers and work in the bottom third of the zone with three pitches frustrates hitters.

The Future: Unless he develops more of a swing-and-miss slider or finds another couple of ticks of velocity, Lowder projects as a durable and reliable No. 3 starter rather than a true ace. His command, feel for pitching and consistency are qualities which could make him a multi-time all-star. Following Aaron Nola’s career path from dominating college ace to seventh overall pick to rotation stalwart would be a best-case scenario.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 70
BA Grade: 55/High

Track Record: Lowder’s standout 2023 season with Wake Forest ended with a College World Series duel against LSU’s Paul Skenes. Lowder matched Skenes zero for zero in a pitching duel for the ages as both exited with the game still scoreless. That was the only Lowder start all season that Wake Forest didn’t win. His 15-0 record and 143 strikeouts both set school records as he won Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year honors for a second straight season. The Reds drafted Lowder seventh overall and signed him for $5.7 million, about 9% under slot. They decided not to ramp Lowder back up after he signed after he had thrown 120 innings for Wake and starred for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team the previous summer. He’ll make his pro debut in 2024.

Scouting Report: Lowder worked at least five innings in 18 of his 19 starts in 2023 and seven innings in 10 starts, but he did so while never topping 105 pitches in any outing. Lowder has three above-average or plus pitches, and he demonstrates complete confidence in all three. His 93-95 mph above-average four-seam fastball will touch 97 and has plenty of running life. His 93-95 mph two-seam fastball is even more effective because it pairs so well with his changeup, but it’s his above-average slider and plus changeup that give hitters the biggest fits. His 85-88 mph slider is a power pitch with more depth than tilt. His 84-88 mph changeup has excellent deception. Lowder’s front foot is pointed toward the first-base on-deck circle when he lands. It’s unconventional, but it adds deception and hasn’t hindered his plus control.

The Future: Lowder is as close to MLB-ready as any pitcher in the 2023 draft class, and he should move quickly. Scouts generally view him as a relatively safe No. 3 or 4 starter rather than a future ace.

Scouting Grades Fastball: 55 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 60

Draft Prospects

School: Wake Forest Source: 4YR

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Age At Draft: 21.4
BA Grade:55/High
Tools:Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Changeup: 60. Control: 60.

While Wake Forest has become a pitching factory in recent years, Lowder became the first player in program history to be named ACC pitcher of the year after a 2022 season where he posted a 3.08 ERA in 99.1 innings, with a 25.1% strikeout rate. He followed that up with a dominant showing for Team USA’s Collegiate National Team during the summer, and then in 2023 was among the most consistent pitchers in the country as the Friday night starter for one of the best Wake Forest teams in program history—again winning ACC pitcher of the year honors. Lowder posted a 1.87 ERA through 19 starts and 120.1 innings, with a career-high 30.4% strikeout rate, career-low 5.1% walk rate. He threw at least six innings in 15 of his 19 starts.. He’s large and physical with a 6-foot-2, 200-pound frame, an up-tempo windup and a lower, three-quarter slot. There are pitchers with “louder” pure stuff, but it would be hard to find a pitcher with better feel for a legitimate three-pitch mix. He throws a fastball that sits 93-94 mph and has been up to 97 with tons of running life and has pounded the zone at a 70% or better rate in each of the last two seasons. He also has great feel to land a mid-80s, sweepy slider and a mid-80s changeup. Both are consistent swing-and-miss offerings and seem to play off of each other nicely—whether that’s due to Lowder tunneling the trio well or because he simply commands them at will and throws each around a third of the time. Lowder might be nitpicked by some teams because of his running fastball, his relative lack of projection and an extreme-open toe, crossfire landing. Still, he’s posted, has above-average stuff across the board and is one of the safest starting profiles you’ll find in the class.