Felix Hernandez Stats & Scouting Report

IP	2729
ERA	3.42
WHIP	1.206
BB/9	2.655
SO/9	8.324

Full name Félix Abraham Graham Hernandez
Born 04/08/1986 in Valencia, Venezuela
Profile Ht.: 6'3" / Wt.: 220 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School U.E. Jose Austria
Debut 08/04/2005

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Celebrating his 18th birthday the day before his first outing in 2004, Hernandez turned in the most dominating season for a player that age since Dwight Gooden was BA's Minor League Player of the Year in 1983. He allowed more than three earned runs in just four of his 25 starts, and he was named the top prospect in both the high Class A California and Double-A Texas leagues, just as he had been in the short-season Northwest League in 2003. He was the youngest player in both circuits, just as he had been in the NWL. Hernandez also worked a perfect inning at the Futures Game, highlighted by an effortless strikeout of the Mets' David Wright. His $710,000 bonus now looks like a huge bargain, as he has become unquestionably the best pitching prospect in baseball. It's difficult to project Hernandez' ceiling because his ability seems limitless. All three of his pitches are above average, and the Mariners won't even let him use his best offering. His fastball and curveball are the best in the system, each rating a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and some club officials give his 60 changeup top billing as well. Hernandez has true power stuff, as his fastball sits in the mid-90s and touches 97 mph while his curveball arrives in the mid-80s. He has yet to completely fill out, so his radar-gun readings could climb. His changeup was inconsistent early in the season, but he has refined it into a pitch that repeatedly throws hitters off balance. Word is that Hernandez' 88-90 mph slider puts his other pitches to shame, but Seattle is keeping it under wraps in the interest of his health. Considering his age, his command and savvy are as extraordinary as his stuff. He can blow the ball by hitters up in the strike zone but excels at keeping it down, as evidenced by his 2.3-1 groundball-flyball ratio in 2004. His mechanics are sound and his arm action is electric. Hernandez also takes care of the little things, such as holding baserunners and fielding his position. Despite all the hype swirling around him, he hasn't let it get to him. At times Hernandez will overthrow when he's in a jam, forgetting that each of his pitches is good enough to get outs. He needs to locate his fastball a little better to help set up his curveball and changeup. He may have to watch his weight as he gets older, though his work ethic isn't a concern. An injury is all that could derail Hernandez from stardom, and the Mariners are going to great lengths to keep him healthy. Besides taking away his slider, they've held him to strict pitch and inning counts and persuaded him to skip winter ball in his native Venezuela this offseason. They plan on him beginning 2005 in Triple-A, though he could force the issue of a big league promotion in spring training. Regardless of where he starts the year, Hernandez will get to Seattle and become the No. 1 starter soon enough.
The Mariners expected Hernandez to be good when they signed him for $710,000 in July 2002. But they didn't expect him to be this good, this fast. Seattle never has been able to challenge precocious teenagers with an assignment to the short-season Northwest League, populated mostly by former college players. When he threw in the mid-90s last spring, he punched his ticket to Everett. The youngest player in the NWL by nearly eight months, Hernandez was dominant despite being kept on tight pitch counts. He pitched scoreless ball in five of his 11 outings and surrendered more than one earned run only twice. He was an easy choice as the NWL's No. 1 prospect. Promoted for the low Class A Midwest League stretch drive, he responded with two quality starts in as many tries. In the season finale, he shut out Kane County, one of the MWL's top offenses, with 10 strikeouts in seven innings. Hernandez succeeded against even more experienced hitters this winter, going 1-1, 4.23 in six starts for Lara in his native Venezuela. The Mariners shut him out in December so he wouldn't exceed 100 innings in 2003. Hernandez has scary upside. He'll open this season as a 17-year-old and he doesn't need to develop any more stuff. The only guy in the organization with a comparable arm is big leaguer Rafael Soriano. Hernandez has the best fastball in the system and commands his mid-90s heat well. He regularly touches 97 and could reach triple digits as his skinny frame fills out. Hernandez' curveball is also unparalleled among Mariners farmhands and gives him the possibility for two 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale. Though he's young and can easily overpower hitters at the lower levels, he understands the value of a changeup and is developing a good one. He can pitch down in the strike zone or blow the ball by hitters upstairs. He has poise and mound presence beyond his years. Hernandez just has to learn how to pitch. He needs to tweak his command and refine his pitches on the way to Seattle. Typical of a teenager with a lightning arm, he'll overthrow at times but should grow out of that. Arm problems would appear to be the only thing that could derail him from stardom, and Hernandez has been perfectly healthy so far. The Mariners will go to great lengths to make sure he isn't overworked in the minors. Seattle wants to move Hernandez slowly, but he may not let that happen. He's not going to need to spend a full season at each level and might need just two more years in the minors. He'll probably start 2004 back at low Class A Wisconsin--the Mariners concede he could have spent all of last season there--and could be bucking for a promotion to high Class A Inland Empire by midseason. It's easy to get overexcited about young pitchers, but Hernandez has the legitimate potential to become the best pitcher ever developed by the Mariners.

Minor League Top Prospects

King Felix reigned over the PCL with stuff that borders on unfair. His mid-90s fastball and mid-80s curveball are 70 pitches on the 20-80 scouting scale, while his changeup is a 60. The Mariners don't allow him to throw a slider that might be his best pitch--they want to protect his arm and he hasn't needed it--though he'll mix it in occasionally. Unlike most power pitchers, Hernandez is a groundball machine. He gave up just 14 homers in 306 minor league innings, and big leaguers didn't have any success lifting his pitches either. He throws quality strikes with a sound delivery and clean arm action. "He's the best minor league pitcher I've ever seen. That's the best report I've ever written," one scout said. "There's nothing not to like. What he has now is plenty good enough." Hernandez will overthrow his fastball or want to rely on his curve too much at times, though that's typical of a 19-year-old pitcher. Only injury problems could keep him from superstardom, so Seattle has carefully monitored his inning and pitch counts. The bursitis is the only blip on his health record.
The youngest player in the league on Opening Day, Hernandez celebrated his 18th birthday one day before making his first start of the season. Hitters celebrated when he left for Double-A in late June, because they never were able to solve him. Both Hernandez' fastball and curveball were rated the best in the league by the managers. Hernandez throws in the high 90s with little effort and locates his fastball well--and the consensus was that his knee-buckling curveball is even better. One scout called it the best breaking pitch he saw all year. Observers also praised Hernandez' changeup, which was nonexistent early in the season but showed signs of becoming a plus pitch. And though the Mariners wouldn't let him throw his slider, those who have seen it say it might be the best offering in his repertoire. "He's the best I've seen in the last three or four years, and he's right up there with the great stuff guys I've ever seen," one scout said. "Plus he has a feel for pitching with command, like all of the great ones have."
Hernandez showed why he's probably the best pitching prospect in the game, consistently dealing the kind of dominating stuff that invites comparisons to the early version of Dwight Gooden. With excellent size and body control, Hernandez generally puts his lively, 96-97 mph fastball wherever he wants. He could add velocity as he refines his already sound mechanics and matures physically. "I wasn't so much surprised by the stuff, though, as by the command," Missions manager Dave Brundage said. "He threw quality strikes when he needed to. His stuff when he was down 2-0 in the count was as good as it was at 0-0." Hernandez has a true slider that sits in the 88-90 mph range, though the Mariners try to limit him to his mid-80s power curveball and changeup. He has minor adjustments to make, such as holding runners and fielding his position, but the main issue will be to stay healthy. "To see an 18-year-old with that kind of stuff come in and dominate was very impressive," El Paso manager Scott Coolbaugh said. "There was nobody else throwing like him in the league."
In a league filled with college players, Hernandez dominated at 17. He led the league in wins, ERA and strikeouts for most of the summer, before allowing four earned runs over five innings in his final start before a promotion to low Class A Wisconsin. "He more or less dominated every time he took the mound," Tri-City manager Ron Gideon said. Hernandez throws his overpowering fastball at 94-95 mph and it tops out at 97, with some managers saying it could reach 100. He commands it well, moving it all over the strike zone, and is adept at working hitters up the ladder. He also has a plus curveball and solid changeup. He has a good presence on the mound and a knack for pitching. "He's not raw at all," Spokane manager Darryl Kennedy said. "The only rawness is that he is 17 years old. He's one of the better young prospects on the mound in this league in a while."