Robbie Erlin

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked San Diego Padres #10 prospect in 2013
  Just like fellow Top 10 Prospects Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland, Erlin missed a significant chunk of 2012 with an elbow injury. In his case, he lost three months to elbow tendinitis. If healthy, all three pitchers would have spent the majority of the season in the San Diego rotation. He joined the organization in July 2011 along with Wieland in the trade that sent Mike Adams to the Rangers. Erlin is almost a smaller, lefthanded version of Wieland. Erlin similarly emphasizes feel over raw stuff. He sits at 88-90 mph, tops out at 92 and commands his fastball to both sides of the plate. That sets up a quality curveball and a fading changeup that averages more than 10 mph of separation from his heater. Erlin fully trusts his low-70s downer curve, throwing it in any count and buckling knees when batters aren't expecting it. Since reaching Double-A, he has begun mixing in a low-80s cutter/slider and a two-seamer to give righties something else to worry about. Just like Kelly and Wieland, he's almost around the zone too much, leaving him susceptible to homers. Erlin got back on track in the Arizona Fall League, recording a 2.28 ERA in seven starts and finishing second with 31 strikeouts in 24 innings. Like any Padres pitching prospect, he stands to benefit from pitching half his games in Petco Park, though he'd profile as a No. 4 starter ready to contribute in 2013 in any organization.
• 
  Ranked San Diego Padres #8 prospect in 2012
  Erlin led the low Class A South Atlantic League with a 2.12 ERA as a 19-year-old in 2010, and his encore was even more impressive. He needed just nine starts to earn a promotion to Double-A in 2011, when he ranked second in the minors in K-BB ratio (9.6) and fourth in WHIP (0.95). He and Joe Wieland switched Texas League dugouts following the July 31 trade that sent Mike Adams from the Padres to the Rangers. Erlin's secondary pitches, superb control and easy delivery give him more upside than the typical pitcher with an 89-91 mph fastball that tops out at 93. He works both corners with his fastball, rarely straying out of the zone, not even with two strikes. Batters don't see the ball well out of his hand, making his fading changeup a deadly weapon, especially when it arrives anywhere from 12-15 mph slower than his fastball. Erlin buckles knees with a tight downer curveball in the low 70s. If anything, his control is too sharp and leaves him vulnerable to homers. Like Wieland, Erlin is a control-oriented, flyball pitcher who will benefit from Petco Park. His stuff may not play as well in smaller parks, but his overall profile suggests solid mid-rotation starter. He'll team with Wieland again in 2011, this time in Tucson.
• 
  Ranked Texas Rangers #4 prospect in 2011
  After signing him away from a Cal Poly commitment for $425,000 as a 2009 thirdround pick, the Rangers planned for Erlin to begin 2010 in extended spring training and then begin his professional career with short-season Spokane. Instead, Erlin forced his way to low Class A Hickory with a strong spring and led the South Atlantic League in ERA (2.12) and strikeout-walk ratio (7.4) as a 19-year-old. Erlin is polished beyond his years, with outstanding command of all three of his offerings. He keeps hitters off-balance by throwing any pitch in any count and can even mix a big leg kick with a slide step to disrupt their timing. Erlin attacks all four quadrants of the strike zone with an 89-91 mph fastball, an 11-to-7 curveball that's a plus pitch at times, and a quality changeup with fade and some turnover action. He can change speeds with his curveball and changeup, which is 12-15 mph slower than his fastball. He's a fierce competitor with the best delivery in the system. Despite his lack of size, Erlin profiles as a quality big league starter because of his off-the-charts feel for pitching and his competitiveness. He'll advance to Texas' new high Class A Myrtle Beach affiliate in 2011 and could race through the minors.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Carolina League #5 prospect in 2011
  CL hitters knew that there was only one real way to get to Erlin. Every now and then, he'd leave a pitch up that could be hit hard. But if they missed their one chance, they likely would be walking back to the dugout shaking their head. He had the second-best K-BB ratio in the minors this season, striking out 154 and walking just 16 in 147 innings. Promoted to Double-A in late May, he and Myrtle Beach teammate Joe Wieland went to the Padres in a trade for Mike Adams two months later. Erlin finished the season by allowing four runs in six starts with his new organization. Erlin's fastball velocity is average at best, generally sitting at 88-91 mph, but he tickles the corners of the strike zone. Once he gets ahead in the count, he abuses hitters with a pair of plus secondary pitches, a hard-breaking curveball and a deceptive changeup with late fade. He's prone to home runs, but his excellent control means that he usually limits the damage.
• 
  Ranked Texas League #8 prospect in 2011
  Erlin was making fast progress through the Rangers system when he went to the Padres in a deadline deal for Mike Adams. He simply changed dugouts in the Texas League, starring down the stretch for San Antonio cruised to the championship. He had a 1.38 ERA in his six regular-season starts for the Missions, then allowed one run in five innings in his only playoff outing. While with Frisco, Erlin served as an interesting counterpoint to Perez, a southpaw who tries to overpower hitters. Erlin is all about pitchability, with smooth, consistent mechanics and a great feel for working hitters. He works both sides of the plate and changes speed, almost lulling hitters to sleep before putting them away. That's not to say Erlin's stuff is short. He has a solid fastball whose deception allows it to play better than its 86-92 mph velocity. His curveball and changeup are both plus pitches, and he has the command and confidence to use them at any point in the count. The only criticism is that he hangs out in the strike zone too much, giving up hits and home runs.
• 
  Ranked South Atlantic League #5 prospect in 2010
  Erlin signed too late in 2009 to make his pro debut, so the Rangers envisioned him pitching in short-season ball this year. But Hickory manager Bill Richardson liked what he saw in spring training, and persuaded the organization to let Erlin break camp with Hickory. He moved into the rotation in mid-May and led the league with a 2.12 ERA and 7.4 K-BB ratio. Erlin doesn't overwhelm hitters with size or strength, but he knows how to set them up. He has plus command of an 88-91 mph fastball that touches 93, and he can throw his plus curveball and solid changeup at any time in the count. "I've never seen a 19-year-old throw the opposite pitch than what the hitter's expecting more often than he does," Richardson said. "Scouts will question his size, but the intangibles that he brings to the mound are what really impress me. His pitches have good movement and he knows what to do with what he has."

• December, 2012 Scouting Report
  Background: Just like fellow Top 10 Prospects Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland, Erlin missed a significant chunk of 2012 with an elbow injury. In his case, he lost three months to elbow tendinitis. If healthy, all three pitchers would have spent the majority of the season in the San Diego rotation. Erlin joined the organization in July 2011 along with Wieland in the trade that sent Mike Adams to the Rangers. Scouting Report: Like Wieland, Erlin emphasizes feel over raw stuff. He sits at 88-90 mph, tops out at 92 and commands his fastball to both sides of the plate. That sets up a quality curveball and a fading changeup that averages more than 10 mph of separation from his heater. Erlin trusts his low-70s downer curve, throwing it in any count and buckling knees when batters aren't expecting it. Since reaching Double-A, he has begun mixing in a low-80s cutter/slider and a two-seamer to give righties something else to worry about. Just like Kelly and Wieland, he's almost around the zone too much, leaving him susceptible to homers. The Future: Erlin got back on track in the Arizona Fall League, finishing second with 31 strikeouts in 24 innings. He stands to benefit from pitching half his games in Petco Park, though he'd profile as a No. 4 starter ready to contribute in 2013 in any organization.
• December, 2011 Scouting Report
  Background: Erlin led the low Class A South Atlantic League with a 2.12 ERA in 2010. He needed just nine starts to earn a promotion to Double-A in 2011, when he ranked second in the minors in K-BB ratio (9.6) and fourth in WHIP (0.95). He and Joe Wieland switched Texas League dugouts following the trade that sent Mike Adams to the Rangers. Scouting Report: Erlin's secondary pitches, superb control and easy delivery give him more upside than the typical pitcher with an 89-91 mph fastball that tops out at 93. He works both corners with his fastball, rarely straying out of the zone, not even with two strikes. Batters don't see the ball well out of his hand, making his fading changeup a deadly weapon, especially when it arrives anywhere from 12-15 mph slower than his fastball. Erlin buckles knees with a tight downer curveball in the low 70s. If anything, his control is too sharp, leaving him vulnerable to homers. The Future: Like Wieland, Erlin is a control-oriented, flyball pitcher who will benefit from Petco Park. His stuff may not play as well in smaller parks, but his overall profile suggests solid mid-rotation starter. He'll team with Wieland again in 2011, this time in Tucson.