Mike Hinckley Stats & Scouting Report

IP	23
ERA	1.957
WHIP	1.304
BB/9	5.478
SO/9	4.696

Full name Michael David Hinckley
Born 10/05/1982 in Oklahoma City, OK
Profile Ht.: 6'3" / Wt.: 195 / Bats: R / Throws: L
School Moore
Debut 09/02/2008
Drafted in the 3rd round (82nd overall) by the Washington Nationals in 2001 (signed for $425,000).

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Another Oklahoma high school pitcher, another guy with fantastic arm speed. Strayhorn tantalized scouts by touching 96 mph at last summer's Area Code Games, but he hasn't thrown quite as well this spring. He reached 94, tends to overthrow and is getting tagged with a maximum-effort label. At 6-foot-1 and 185 pounds, he doesn't have as much room as Shell and Hinckley to add velocity. Strayhorn's hard curveball has its moments.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Hinckley ranked as the Nationals' No. 1 prospect after his stellar 2004 campaign, but he hurt his shoulder in big league camp the following spring and spent the next three years wandering through the prospect wilderness. He re-signed with the Nationals as a minor league free agent before the 2008 season, and the organization decided to move him to the bullpen. He responded with a bounce-back season that landed him in the big leagues, where he didn't allow an earned run in his first 14 innings. A few mechanical adjustments helped Hinckley regain his fastball velocity, as he worked at 88-91 mph and bumped 92 occasionally. The Nationals focused on getting him to keep his upper body back longer in his delivery and gave him a slight shoulder tilt that helps him drive the ball down in the zone, reminiscent of Andy Pettitte's motion. He works mostly with his fastball and a good curveball with tight 1-to- 7 break, which he commanded much better in 2008 than he had in recent years. He can throw a 78 mph changeup with some sink but seldom uses it in a relief role. Hinckley should be a key lefthander in Washington's bullpen out of spring training. He can be more than a left-on-left specialist, but he'll never be more than a middle reliever.
Hinckley looked to be on the fast track in 2004, when he posted a 2.87 ERA in 94 innings in Double-A and finished the season as Washington's No. 1 prospect. He went to big league spring training in 2005 with a chance to earn a spot in the Opening Day rotation, but he began overthrowing and his arm action got longer, creating strain on his shoulder that caused him to miss the first month of the season. He pitched with a sore shoulder in 2005, and had posterior capsule relief surgery after the season. Hinckley returned to high Class A in 2006, where he struggled to regain his stuff and his command. At times he showed flashes of what he once was, but for most of the year his fastball sat in the mid- to upper 80s, not approaching the low 90s he pitched at two years ago. When he was at his best, Hinckley had excellent command of a three-pitch mix, but he had trouble commanding his changeup in 2006, and his curveball did not have the bite it once did. This season will be critical for Hinckley. He needs to return to Double-A and show that his stuff has come all the way back. The Nationals aren't giving up on a lefthander with Hinckley's pedigree yet, but time is running out.
The system's top prospect entering 2005, Hinckley went to big league camp in the spring with a chance to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster. He began overthrowing and his arm action got longer, which caused him to strain his shoulder and miss the first month of the season. He spent the rest of the year stuck in high Class A trying to regain his rhythm and stuff before going home to get married. The completely healthy Hinckley of years past featured outstanding command of three solid pitches--a low-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and a changeup. His makeup always has drawn praise. Hinckley's fastball velocity never quite returned to normal in 2005, peaking at about 89 mph. His curveball wasn't as sharp and he struggled to find his command all season, even after he was given a clean bill of health. Hinckley needs to start fresh and learn lessons from his first taste of injury and adversity. If he's healthy, he has the work ethic and stuff to be a quality mid-rotation starter in the majors, perhaps even in 2006. He'll probably start the year in Double-A.
Hinckley quickly and quietly has established himself as one of the top lefthanded pitching prospects in the minors. His talent has been evident for some time--he ranked No. 2 in the organization behind Clint Everts in each of the previous two years--and his ascent accelerated rapidly in 2004. The Expos initially brought Hinckley along slowly, pitching him in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in his pro debut, then kept him in extended spring training before sending him to short-season Vermont in his second year. He finished strong at high Class A Brevard County in 2003, then handled that level with ease again last season before moving on to Double-A Harrisburg. Hinckley allowed two earned runs or fewer in 19 of his 26 starts while leading the system in victories (11) and strikeouts (131 in 156 innings). He now owns a 32-13, 2.80 career record in the minors and has won 20 of his last 26 decisions. Hinckley has a lot going for him. He has outstanding command of his fastball, which sits at 89-92 mph and touches 94, and he holds that velocity deep into games. His 76-78 mph curveball has good bite and depth. His changeup already is average. What really puts Hinckley ahead of most 22-year-olds is his makeup, which might be the best in the organization. He knows the game, he studies it and prepares well for every start. He demonstrates an advanced feel and tremendous poise on the mound. His athletic frame is durable and projectable, and his delivery is free and easy. He uses his lower half well, pitching on a downward plane that makes it difficult for hitters to take him deep. Hinckley has been equally effective against lefthanders and righthanders. Lefties hit .288 with five homers off him in Double-A but that likely was just an aberration, as they batted .182 against him in high Class A. While he does have a long, lean body, Hinckley still needs to fill out. Once he does, his fastball velocity should stay in the 91-94 range more often. How fast he realizes his potential also depends on his ability to refine his secondary pitches. Both his curveball and changeup are effective, but neither is as good as Everts'. If Hinckley can make them more consistent, his curve could be a strikeout pitch and his change could be above-average. Now that Hinckley has started to move, he should continue to fly through the system. He'll get a look in big league camp after being added to the 40-man roster this offseason, but he's a longshot to make the club. More realistically, he'll start 2005 in the minors and could return to Double-A for the first couple of months, but figures to see Triple-A New Orleans and the majors before the season is out. Few in the organization see Hinckley as a No. 1 starter in the majors, but he has a high probability of reaching the big leagues and becoming a successful No. 2 or 3 starter on a quality team.
Hinckley ranked second behind Everts on this list entering the 2003 season. He went 4-3, 5.64 in his first 12 starts before finishing the year on a 9-2, 1.37 run. He's rapidly developing into one of the top lefthanded pitching prospects in the game. Hinckley is a projectable lefty with three average to above-average pitches. His arm action and delivery allow him to run his fastball to 91-94 mph with little effort. He learned to manipulate his fastball in the second half of the season, cutting it in on righties and fading it away from lefties. His curveball is a swing-and-miss pitch with good depth and two-plane break. He throws strikes and doesn't allow many home runs. Hinckley's changeup is the weakest of his three offerings but should become an average big league pitch. He must continue to improve his fastball command. Hinckley projects as a No. 2 or 3 starter in the majors. He should start 2004 with Brevard County, but with a good spring he could surprise and open the season with Double-A Harrisburg.
Hinckley came on strong as a high school senior before the 2001 draft, emerging from obscurity to become a third-rounder. After a lackluster debut, he led the short-season New York-Penn league in ERA and innings last season. Hinckley already touches 94 mph and sits in the low 90s, and some scouts project him to add more consistent velocity as he fills out his lean frame. He works with a low-stress arm action and delivery, allowing him to command all his pitches. He generates good sink, and his 79-82 mph changeup is an effective pitch against righthanders. Hinckley's curveball, a 74-78 mph bender with tight rotation, already is a plus pitch and should get better. He also has the best work ethic in the organization. Hinckley just needs to add strength and innings. He showed improvement in all areas of his game last year, doing a better job of pitching inside and improving the overall quality of his stuff. He learned to channel his intensity so he wouldn't overthrow and cost himself control and life with his pitches. The Expos envision Hinckley developing into a frontline starter. He'll make his full-season debut at Savannah in 2003.
Hinckley was a lefthander with middling velocity before he reinvented his arm action prior to his senior season. The result helped jump his fastball into the low 90s and made him a third-round pick in last June's draft. Hinckley has a lean rail-thin but projectable body with wide shoulders. In the Gulf Coast League, he routinely threw his sinker in the 88-91 mph range. His command was erratic because he's such a competitor that he got too pumped up at times and couldn't settle into a consistent rhythm. Another flaw is that he sometimes opens his front foot too soon, causing his arm to drag and come across his body. Hinckley has good feel for a 79-81 mph straight changeup and a 72-74 mph curveball with downward spin. If he develops as expected, the Expos may have something special.

Minor League Top Prospects

Like Billingsley, Hinckley showed the ability to dominate with two plus pitches and refined command. He fired 92-93 mph fastballs with a free and easy delivery, and his curveball prevents hitters from looking for his heater. "He looks like he's going to be able to throw harder if he needs to," Daytona manager Steve McFarland said. "He can go to his breaking ball or his fastball to get you out." Hinckley's changeup is less developed, but that's partly because he rarely needed a third pitch. He had no problems adapting to Double-A after a mid-June promotion.
Though he doesn't get much hype, Hinck-ley could compete for a job in the Expos rotation next spring. He sped through the system and landed in Harrisburg, where he allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his 16 starts and held righties to a .222 average. Hinckley has a thick, durable frame and uses it well, generating good torque from his lower half and pitching downhill. His fastball, which he gained command of this year, sits between 88-91 mph and he runs it up and down, in and out. He maintains his velocity deep into outings. His 76-78 mph breaking ball has tight rotation with plus bite and depth. He has good makeup and handled the transition to Double-A with aplomb.
On the heels of a New York-Penn League ERA title, Hinckley found the jump to full-season ball more difficult. After going 3-3, 5.92 in his first 10 starts, he made adjustments and finished the year with four spectacular outings in high Class A. Capable of reaching 94 mph, Hinckley learned to rely less on his velocity and more on command and changing speeds. Because of his smooth, repeatable delivery and plus curveball, the transition was painless. He showed the fastball command to work both sides of the plate with above-average movement, especially away from righthanders.
Hinckley came on strong as an Oklahoma high school senior before the 2001 draft, emerging from obscurity to become a third-rounder. After a lackluster debut in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League last summer, Hinckley led the NY-P in innings and ERA. Managers and scouts liked both his stuff and his makeup. Hinckley already touches 94 mph and sits in the low 90s, and some scouts project him to add more consistent velocity as he fills out his lean frame. He works with a sound delivery and a clean arm action, allowing him to fill up the strike zone with his fastball, curveball and changeup. He generates good sink, and his changeup is an effective pitch against righthanders.