Brian Dopirak Stats & Scouting Report

AB	3701
AVG	.278
OBP	.334
SLG	.48
HR	169

Full name Brian Allan Dopirak
Born 12/20/1983 in Tampa, FL
Profile Ht.: 6'4" / Wt.: 225 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Dunedin
Drafted in the 2nd round (56th overall) by the Chicago Cubs in 2002 (signed for $740,000).

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Dopirak can launch balls better than anyone in the draft, though he's still viewed as a hit-or-miss player who could hit 50 homers in the majors or wash out in Double-A. He's more of a free swinger than Fielder and his ability to make contact is uncertain. He's also less polished defensively than Fielder, and his body isn't particularly toned. He likes to show off his tattoos, which doesn't always endear him to scouts, but there's no denying his bat speed. A potential supplemental first-rounder, Dopirak almost certainly will sign rather than attend St. Petersburg JC.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

In the 2002 high school draft crop, Dopirak's raw power was considered comparable to Prince Fielder's. Eight years later, Fielder has 160 homers in the major leagues, while Dopirak has 145--all in the minors. He ranked as the Cubs' No. 1 prospect after a 2004 season in which he hit 39 homers and won Midwest League MVP honors, but he got off to a slow start the next year and messed up his swing and plate discipline trying desperately to hit for power. Released by the Cubs at the end of spring training in 2008, he signed with the Blue Jays, in part because they sent him to Dunedin, his hometown. In two seasons in the Toronto system, Dopirak has batted .313/.372/.554 and led the Eastern League with a .576 slugging percentage last year. His success has come with a change in approach. Previously a dead-pull, all-or-nothing hitter, he now uses the entire field without sacrificing any of his considerable power. In batting practice, he exclusively works up the middle and to right-center. He still takes a big hack and probably won't hit for a high average, but his strength is undeniable. He's a below-average runner and first baseman, so all of his value comes from his bat. Dopirak has shown enough to warrant a spot on the 40-man roster and could get his first big callup in 2010, though he'll see some more time in Triple-A first.
Dopirak is one of several Cubs who attended Dunedin (Fla.) High, along with general manager Jim Hendry, scouting director Tim Wilken and fellow slugger Ryan Harvey. Dopirak was the Paul Bunyan of the Midwest League in 2004, winning the MVP award and the home run crown, and he ranked No. 1 on this list. But nothing has gone right for him since. He got off to a slow start in high Class A the following season, panicked trying to get out of his slump and messed up his swing. He seemed to be putting the pieces back together last spring when he hit .355 in big league camp, but disaster struck on Opening Day. Dopirak broke the metatarsal bone in his left foot while running the bases, requiring surgery that sidelined him for two months. When he returned in June he never got his timing back, and he hit just one homer in 52 games before he needed another operation to correct further problems with his foot. When he's going well, Dopirak generates tremendous power with a short stroke. When he's not hitting home runs, he brings little else to the table. He doesn't control the strike zone and sells out for power, so he doesn't hit for average. He's a well below-average runner and a subpar defender at first base, though he works at his defense. Chicago hopes he can regain his confidence and his 2004 form when he returns to Double-A this year.
Dopirak ranked No. 1 on this list a year ago, when he was coming off a 39-homer season and an MVP award in the Midwest League. The wheels came off in high Class A in 2005, however, as his average dropped 72 points while he dipped to 16 homers. He's a product of Dunedin (Fla). High, as are three other prominent Cubs: general manager Jim Hendry, new scouting director Tim Wilken and Ryan Harvey. Dopirak has power comparable to Harvey's, and who has more is a popular debate among Cubs officials. Dopirak can hit the ball out of any part of any park and doesn't need a long swing to do it. He has worked hard to improve defensively. He typically has needed time to adjust to a new level, but Dopirak seemed to panic in 2005. After he started slowly again, he lengthened his stroke and tried to pull everything in an attempt to pump up his homer totals. He has below-average speed and will never be more than adequate at first base. With Derrek Lee in the majors, Chicago can be patient with Dopirak. They'll move him up a level to Double-A in 2006 and hope he can bounce back.
There must be something in the water at Dunedin (Fla.) High, because two of the minors' most dangerous power hitters came out of that program just a year apart. The Cubs drafted Dopirak in the second round in 2002, then took former teammate Ryan Harvey with the sixth overall pick in 2003. Dopirak, who had committed to St. Petersburg (Fla.) Junior College, turned pro for a $740,000 bonus. Though he was considered to have the most raw power in the 2002 draft--even more than Prince Fielder--the consensus among scouts was that Dopirak was a hit-or-miss player who could just as easily flame out in Double-A as succeed in the majors. The latter looks like the more realistic possibility now. He earned short-season Northwest League all-star honors in 2003, setting the stage for last season, when he destroyed the low Class A Midwest League. Dopirak tied for third in the minors in homers, finishing three shy of the MWL record, and led the league in hits, doubles, total bases and extra-base hits. He was named Midwest League MVP and Cubs minor league player of the year. With quick hands, Dopirak generates tremendous bat speed and can hit the ball out to any part of any ballpark. If pitchers let him get his hands extended, they're dead. "When the ball comes off his bat," Kane County manager Dave Joppie said, "it's like hitting a golf ball with an aluminum bat." For a big guy, Dopirak has a short swing, and while he's not the most disciplined of hitters, he already has a sound approach and has shown improvement at working counts. He showed he could adjust against better pitching when Chicago decided to push him after the regular season with an assignment to the Arizona Fall League, where at 20 he was one of the youngest players. He responded to that challenge by hitting .274 with seven homers (one off the AFL lead) in 95 at-bats. In addition to hitting 35-plus homers on an annual basis, Dopirak may be able to hit for average as well. Unlike some young sluggers, he also appreciates the value of defense and has worked hard on that aspect of his game. For all his effort, Dopirak never will be more than an adequate first baseman. He doesn't cover much ground and his hands are somewhat shaky, which is why he led MWL first basemen with 15 errors in 2004. He's also limited as a baserunner. Dopirak is going to produce a lot of strikeouts to go with his homers, a tradeoff the Cubs will accept. He'll be more valuable, however, if he can continue to increase his walk rate. Already a big man, he'll have to watch his weight as he gets older. If Dopirak moves up one level to high Class A Daytona, he should make a run at the Florida State League home run record of 33. But given how he handled the AFL, he could make a push for Double-A West Tenn in spring training. With Derrek Lee signed through 2006, there's no immediate need to rush Dopirak. When his bat is ready, the Cubs will gladly find a spot for him.
There must be something about Dunedin (Fla.) High and power hitters. Some scouts considered Dopirak to have the most raw power in the 2002 draft, even more than Brewers first-rounder Prince Fielder. Now Dopirak has been surpassed in his own organization by 2003 first-rounder Ryan Harvey, his former Dunedin teammate. Harvey is more of a well-rounded athlete while Dopirak is more of a grip-it-and-rip-it slugger, but when Dopirak makes contact he can drive a ball out of sight. He earned Northwest League all-star honors last year and after starting 2-for-22 following a promotion to low Class A, he hit .337 the rest of the way (including the playoffs). His plate discipline still leaves a lot to be desired and Midwest League pitchers got him to chase most anything. He'll have to make more adjustments to climb through the minors. Dopirak's power will have to carry him, because he won't hit for a high average, he doesn't run well and he's just adequate at first base. That said, few players in the minors have his Dopirak's 40- or 50-homer ceiling. The Cubs do like his attitude and he has put in time trying to get better defensively. He'll advance one step at the time, meaning he should spend 2004 back in the MWL.
Despite bidding goodbye to Fred McGriff and his 478 career home runs, the Cubs have no shortage of power-hitting first basemen. Starting with Hee Seop Choi, McGriff's heir apparent, their list also includes Brad Bouras, Kevin Collins and Micah Hoffpauir. David Kelton and Brandon Sing also ended the season at first base. Choi has the most usable power, but no one in the system has more home run potential than Dopirak, a 2002 second-rounder. Considered to have the most raw pop in the 2002 draft, Dopirak didn't homer in his pro debut. He's going to have to adjust his approach, as he's a free swinger who doesn't make consistent contact. Before the draft, scouts described him as a hit-or-miss player who could hit 50 homers in the majors or top out in Double-A. They also thought he needed to spend more time on conditioning and less on showing off his tattoos. Dopirak's lightning-quick bat will have to carry him, because he's rough at first base or in left field. His development will require patience, which probably means sending him to Boise in 2003.

Minor League Top Prospects

Based on numbers alone, Dopirak wouldn't rank in the top 40 FSL prospects. He struggled mightily with the jump from low Class A, watching his average and power numbers plummet. While he sometimes looked helpless, he's still a solid major league prospect with what one manager termed "gorilla power." Dopirak's hands are strong enough that he can flick balls over the fence. When he stays back on the ball, he has the power to hit it out to any part of any park. But in 2005, he got frustrated and tried to pull everything. He was extremely vulnerable to outside pitches, and he never really showed an ability to make adjustments. He's below average defensively at first base, though he works hard enough to become at least adequate.
Dopirak fell three homers short of Jeff Jones' 22-year-old MWL record of 42, but he should have a much brighter future. Jones never went deep in a brief 16-game big league career, while Dopirak projects to hit 35-40 homers annually in the majors. He has very quick hands and when he gets his arms extended, no park can contain him. "When the ball comes off his bat, it's like hitting a golf ball with an aluminum bat," Kane County manager Dave Joppie said. "He has power to all fields. He's not just a pull guy. He's a tremendous looking hitter." Dopirak still is learning to work counts but he has a quiet, sound approach at the plate and has shown the ability to make adjustments. While he has limited range at first base, he works very hard on his defense and should become at least adequate.
Dopirak fills up the batter's box and complements his impressive physical stature (6-foot-4, 220 pounds) with light-tower power. Though pitchers rarely offered him much to swing at, he was tied for the NWL home run lead when the Cubs moved him up to low Class A in August. He saw a steady diet of breaking balls off the plate, which confounded him for a while. He was also a victim of hitting in the league's worst lineup. "You've got to like his power," McFarland said. "This was a young kid with little protection who had limited chances with guys on base. Lots of times with an open base, they pitched around him." Dopirak works hard defensively, but likely won't ever be more than adequate at first base. He looks unsure of himself at times. His lateral movement doesn't impress and his hands rate no better than average.