Drafted in the C-A round (63rd overall) by the San Diego Padres in 2007 (signed for $515,000).
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Thrust into Ohio State's No. 1 starter role after Dan DeLucia succumbed to elbow surgery, Luebke has responded by leading the Big 10 Conference with a 1.95 regular-season ERA--nearly a run better than his closest competitor, Penn State's Craig Clark at 2.79. Scouts have been interested in the athletic lefthander since he was in high school, but Luebke was intent on becoming a Buckeye. Draft-eligible as a sophomore a year ago, Luebke turned down the Rangers as a 22nd-rounder and instead spent the summer turning in a solid performance in the Cape Cod League. He doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but his 88-91 mph fastball and slider are good enough, especially because the throws strikes and competes. He has done a better job locating his pitches as a junior, and there's still projection in his 6-foot-4, 200-pound frame. Luebke could go as high as the third round to a club seeking a polished college lefty.
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Luebke broke out in 2009, a season that culminated with him starting Team USA's gold-medal game victory against Cuba at the World Cup. He got a late start in 2010 after straining his oblique in spring training, but he breezed through Double-A and Triple-A upon his return in late May, paving the way for a September callup to San Diego. Luebke throws three pitches for strikes, competes well and has the a low-maintenance delivery that stems from solid athleticism. He locates his fastball to both sides of the plate, sitting at 88-90 mph and touching 92 with tailing action. His best attribute may be the downhill plane he generates on his heater. Luebke's out pitch a slurvy slider that often shows three-quarters rotation and rates as a tick above-average. He has made progress with his fading changeup, but he throws it in the same low- 80s range as his breaking ball, so the Padres would like to see him soften the changeup further. Luebke has all the ingredients to pitch in the middle of a big league rotation, which San Diego entrusted him to do in the thick of the National League West race last September. He pitched well, positioning himself as a leading candidate for a rotation spot in 2011.
Three months after signing for $515,000 in 2007, Luebke was pitching in the high Class A California League playoffs. Back in Lake Elsinore to begin his first full season, he scuffled to a 6.84 ERA, but righted the ship after a demotion to low Class A. He bounced back with a strong 2009, reaching Double-A and starting Team USA's gold-medal game victory against Cuba at the World Cup. In 2008, Luebke seemed unwilling to work inside against righthanders, who learned to take his pitches to the opposite field. Last season, he pitched inside with a vengeance and broke bats with a 90-92 mph fastball. His new approach opened up the outer half of the plate for his secondary stuff, particularly his solid slider. He has streamlined his motion and got more downhill plane by softening the landing of his front foot, resulting in improved command and finish of his pitches. As an added bonus, he more consistently repeated his arm slot. Tall and a bit gangly, Luebke sometimes struggles to coordinate the long levers in his delivery. His changeup features good action, but he still throws it a bit too hard at 84-86 mph. He has experimented with various circle change grips. Luebke's stuff and size give him a ceiling as a No. 3 starter. He should get his first taste of Triple-A in 2010, with a big league callup possible in September.
Luebke turned down the Rangers as a 22nd-round pick in 2006 as a draft-eligible sophomore, and instead spent the summer in the Cape Cod League. He returned to Ohio State in 2007 and led the Big 10 Conference with a 1.95 regular season ERA. The Padres took Luebke 40 picks after Nick Schmidt, and they have similar profiles as big, polished college lefties. Luebke signed for $515,000. He dominated in his pro debut, showing firmer stuff than Schmidt, while generating plenty of strikeouts and groundouts. He reached high Class A and went 1-1, 3.18 in three California League playoff starts. Luebke's fastball comes in at 87-91 mph and touches 93 with good armside run, and he commands it to both sides of the plate. His hard slider is an average pitch with more tilt than depth. Luebke commands his average changeup to the outer half of the plate against righties. He works ahead of most hitters because of his repeatable mechanics and competitive demeanor. Though he's already 6-foot-4 and 200 pounds, he still has room to add strength. Luebke commands three pitches but doesn't have overwhelming stuff, and he'll likely improve his sequences with experience. Like the three lefthanders ranked ahead of him, Luebke is durable, has a great feel for pitching and profiles as a possible mid-rotation starter in the major leagues. He should reach Double-A at some point in 2008.
Minor League Top Prospects
Luebke's season began with a stint on the disabled list at Double-A San Antonio with a strained oblique and ended in the majors. Along the way, he made an impressive stop at Portland, holding PCL opponents to three runs or less in seven of his nine starts. Luebke isn't overpowering but generates a good downhill plane with a tailing 87-91 mph fastball that he can locate to both sides of the plate. His slurvy slider rates a tick above average and is his best swing-and-miss pitch, and he also throws a fringy changeup with some fade. He gets in trouble when he leaves balls up, but he throws strikes and repeats his delivery well.
Luebke made a good impression in major league spring training but came down with a strained oblique, so he didn't take the mound in San Antonio until the last week of May. After 10 appearances he earned a promotion to Triple-A, and the Padres called him up in the heat of a pennant race in September. He pitched six shutout innings against the Dodgers to win his second major league start. Luebke has an ideal pitcher's build, with the athleticism to repeat a smooth delivery that features little effort. He's not overpowering, pitching around 88-90 and peaking at 92 mph, but he gets good downhill plane on his fastball. His slider and changeup also made progress this season. With his frame, feel for pitching and ability to generate weak contact, he could pitch for years in the middle of a major league rotation.
Luebke had a strong overall season, starting for the Cal League in the Cal-Carolina League all-star game, then advancing to Double-A. He wrapped his season in the Team USA rotation, carring a no-hitter into the eighth inning against Canada and starting the gold-medal game against Cuba to help the Americans win the World Cup. Luebke isn't a strikeout pitcher, but he throws strikes, gets plenty of groundballs and keeps the ball in the park. He walked just 17 batters in 14 Cal League starts, and his 2.34 ERA easily would have led the league had he not been promoted to Double-A before pitching enough innings to qualify. Luebke features a 90-91 mph fastball, a high-70s curve and an improving changeup that sits around 80 mph. His stuff plays up because he can locate his pitches wherever he wants. "He has everything: great body, good delivery, clean arm," a scout said.
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Rated Best Control in the California League in 2009
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