Keyvius Sampson Stats & Scouting Report

IP	20.1
ERA	6.2
WHIP	1.92
BB/9	5.31
SO/9	7.08

Full name Keyvius N. Sampson
Born 01/06/1991 in Gainesville, FL
Profile Ht.: 6'2" / Wt.: 225 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Forest
Debut 07/30/2015
Drafted in the 4th round (114th overall) by the San Diego Padres in 2009 (signed for $600,000).

View Draft Report

Florida State's top recruit, Sampson would bring the Seminoles a dynamic arm the program has lacked in recent years, if he gets to school. That's not likely, as his lithe, athletic frame and power arm have attracted scouts' interest for the last two years. Sampson has overcome off-field problem, including the death of his mother, to become one of the top arms in the state of Florida, which will be the top producer of talent in this year's draft after California. He reminds some scouts of Edwin Jackson as an African-American pitcher with athleticism and a quick arm that produces above-average velocity. He's touched 95-96 as the season has gone on, showing stronger stuff to go with a power breaking ball. He's shown feel for a changeup as well and has good present control and projects to have average future command thanks to his athleticism. He tends to vary his arm slot more than he should depending on the pitch and needs to become more consistent to make projections of average command come through. Clubs that believe in the arm and athleticism won't let him get through the first two rounds.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

On the one hand, Sampson throws three quality pitch types and still tops out near 97 mph. On the other, his performance track record at Triple-A is dreadful, thanks to poor control. The Padres shifted him to the bullpen after he ran up a 6.71 ERA through 12 starts at El Paso in 2014. His strikeout rate spiked in relief, but he didn't shake his location problems. Scouts blame a long arm swing, wrist wrap and hard-to-repeat mechanics for Sampson's poor control, but they remain interested thanks to a 93-95 mph fastball, big-breaking 12-to-6 curveball and fading mid-80s changeup. His secondary offerings play as solid- average at times, and he might thrive in the bullpen now that he no longer has to worry about pacing.
Signing Sampson for $600,000 in 2009 signaled a shift in the Padres' preference from college to prep arms at the top of the draft. He overcame a disastrous four-start opening at Triple-A Tucson to thrive in 2013 at Double-A San Antonio, overhauling his approach, improving his velocity and leading the organization with 135 strikeouts. Sampson went 8-0, 1.57 through his final 12 appearances at San Antonio before a return trip to Tucson, owing his dominance to improved fastball velocity and the substitution of a slider for his below-average curveball. Scouts clocked Sampson's heater at a consistent 93-95 mph in 2013, while his slider gave him the weapon and aggressive mindset to retire righthanders on a consistent basis. He still throws a quality changeup that he sells with the same arm slot and speed as his fastball. Below-average command remains an issue for Sampson, who tends to catch too much of the plate. His near 1.0 SO/BB ratio and 1.71 WHIP with Tucson in August indicate he still has work to do. Sampson worked as a reliever in the Arizona Fall League, and his newfound power arsenal means a career in that role could still be a productive one.
Sampson's early-career elbow and shoulder trouble seem like a thing of the past after he made at least 24 starts and averaged 120 innings over the past two seasons. He stifled low Class A Midwest League competition in 2011, finishing second in the league with a .192 opponent average and third with 143 strikeouts, and jumped to Double-A to open the 2012 season. He continued to miss bats in the Texas League, leading the loop with 122 strikeouts but also ranking fourth with 57 walks. Sampson throws a pair of present major league average pitches that could develop into consistent plusses down the line. He throws his fastball at 90-93 mph and tops out near 95 with late running action. His changeup arrives from the same arm slot and speed as the fastball, inducing opponents to swing over the top of it or beat it into the ground. His low-70s curveball continues to lack the consistent break or precise location that would make him a frontline starter. In fact, he struck out nearly twice as many lefthanders (29 percent) as righties (18 percent) last year, relying on his deceptive changeup. A lack of consistent fastball command also holds him back, and while he has a big league arm, Sampson may fit best at the back of the rotation or in the bullpen.
The Padres stole Sampson with the 114th pick in 2009, selecting him with the third choice on the draft's second day after he softened his bonus demands. Signed for $600,000, he pitched effectively at short-season Eugene in 2010, but his season was marred by a labrum tear in his shoulder as well as late-season elbow soreness. Healthy in 2011, he stifled Midwest League competition, finishing second in opponent average (.192) and third in strikeouts (143). Sampson's fastball sits at 90-92 mph and peaks at 95, exploding out of his hand with late running action. He wraps his wrist on the back side of his arm stroke, showing the ball to his opponent, but his arm is so quick that his control seems unaffected and his fastball grades as plus. He sells his plus changeup with strong arm speed, and it helped him hold MWL lefties to a .191 average. Sampson's curveball is clearly his third-best pitch because it lacks bite and power, sitting in the low 70s. Plus athleticism allows him to repeat his delivery, which features some effort. An improved breaking ball would enhance Sampson's profile, but he still has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter or late-inning reliever. He's ready for high Class A.
Prior to the 2009 draft, the Padres hadn't signed a high school righthander out of the top 10 rounds since eighth-round pick David Pauley in 2001. They signed two that year: Sampson (fourth round) and James Needy (sixth). They selected Sampson only after he and his agent softened bonus demands on the second day of the draft, and they signed him for $600,000. He showcased one of the most electric arms in the Northwest League in 2010 pro debut. Like teammate Adys Portillo, Sampson paired mid-90s heat with inconsistent secondary stuff. His arm action is long in back but quick out front and the ball jumps out of his hand at 90-93 mph, touching 95 with life. He throws strikes but scatters the zone and lacks command, a common affliction for teenage hurlers. Sampson's breaking ball come and goes, featuring depth and bite one time and then arriving soft and slurvy the next when he gets around the pitch. He trusts his average changeup, and most scouts preferred it to his breaking ball. Sampson is athletic and has shown he can spin the ball, so he's a potential three-pitch starter down the road. That assumes good health, which was seldom the case in 2010. He pitched with a tear in the labrum of his right shoulder, which caused him to alter his delivery and develop elbow soreness. According to the Padres, he left instructional league with a clean bill of health, ready to compete for a rotation spot in low Class A this season.
A top two-rounds talent on merit, Sampson slipped in 2009 because his bonus demands scared away teams. The Padres pounced quickly on day two, selecting him with the third pick in the fourth round after Sampson and his guardian, acting as his agent, softened their bonus demands. The day before the Aug. 17 signing deadline, San Diego bought him out of a Florida State commitment for $600,000. As an amateur, Sampson dealt head-on with adversity, which included his mother's death and a criminal case back in 2006 that stemmed from a felony gun charge leveled at a passenger in a car he was driving. Between the lines, Sampson is a scout's dream, featuring an effortless, fluid arm action, plenty of poise and a feel for changing speeds. He ran his fastball up to 95-96 mph early in the spring before settling at 90-92 after signing. His power curveball already ranks as the best in the system, and his overall control is strong for a prep pitcher. He has shown a feel for a changeup. Sampson's lean, athletic frame offers all kinds of projection, but he closes off his delivery at times, which causes him to throw slightly across his body. The Padres have no recent experience developing prep righthanders as talented as Sampson, so they may opt to begin slowly with an assignment to short-season Eugene in 2010.

Minor League Top Prospects

It didn?t look encouraging early in the season for Sampson, who began at Triple-A Tucson with an 8.04 ERA through four starts before getting demoted back to the TL, where he worked all of last season. A change in pitching philosophy helped Sampson completely reverse the narrative once back at San Antonio. From June 9 onward, he raged his way to 8-0, 1.57 through his final 12 appearances. Sampson worked best when he went on the offensive early in counts, warding off his trouble spot, which has been falling into deep counts. Along the way, he rediscovered his mid-90s fastball, which sits at 93-94 mph but can find another gear when needed. The big change was that Sampson added a slider midseason, giving him a much-needed third pitch to pair with his above-average changeup. This also had the effect of relegating his fringe curveball to the figurative dustbin and unleashing Sampson?s aggressiveness. Sampson?s stuff figured to carry him to the big leagues, but his turnaround probably means he?ll get a long look as a starter rather than a reliever.
After Sampson had a breakout season in low Class A in 2011, the Padres jumped him all the way to Double-A to start 2012. He had high highs and low lows, leading the TL in strikeouts (122) and strikeouts per nine innings (9.0) but also ranking third in losses (11) and fourth in walks (57). Sampson has the ingredients to be a middle-of-the-rotation starter, with a strong, athletic build and a fastball that ranges from 90-94 mph. His changeup is his second-best offering, with good deception and sink, and his curveball should be an average pitch in time. He also has an easy arm action. On the other hand, his outings were incredibly inconsistent and he showed below-average stuff with some regularity, though no one was sure the cause. In starts when he struggled with his stuff and command, he ran up huge pitch counts. His supporters say it's typical development for a pitcher with relatively little experience.
Sampson spent his first two years as a pro in Rookie and short-season ball, and he battled a labrum tear in his shoulder and a sore elbow in 2010. Everything finally came together for him this season, which he opened with six perfect innings against South Bend and finished as the Padres' top pitching prospect. Sampson sits at 89-93 mph and tops out at 95 with a fastball that features late run and looks quicker because he throws it with little effort. He maintains very good arm speed on his plus changeup, which has some fade and helped him limit lefties to a .191 average. While his 69-74 mph curveball has some shape and depth, it needs more power and bite. Though he's not big, Sampson is extremely athletic and repeats his free and easy delivery well. He had no shoulder or elbow issues in 2011, but his control slipped when he tired in the second half.
Sampson had one of the most electric arms in the NWL. He routinely works at 93-95 with good life on his fastball and he makes it look easy. His curveball shows flashes, but it also can be soft and slurvy when he doesn't stay on top of it. He also shows a good changeup and has a lot of confidence in it already, especially for a young pitcher. Sampson's arm action is long in the back but it's quick out front. He works fast and attacks the strike zone with all three of his pitches. He throws strikes but needs to do a better job of locating his pitches. The biggest concern with Sampson is his health. He has been pitching with a tear in his labrum. Perhaps as the result of compensating for that injury, he also came down with elbow tenderness and was shut down in mid-August.

Best Tools List

Rated Best Changeup in the San Diego Padres in 2013
Rated Best Curveball in the San Diego Padres in 2010

Scouting Reports

Background: The Padres stole Sampson with the 114th pick in 2009, getting him with the third choice on the draft's second day after he softened his bonus demands. Signed for $600,000, he pitched effectively at short-season Eugene in 2010, but his season was marred by a labrum tear in his shoulder as well as late-season elbow soreness. Healthy in 2011, he stifled Midwest League competition, finishing second in opponent average (.192) and third in strikeouts (143). Scouting Report: Sampson's fastball sits at 90-92 mph and peaks at 95, exploding out of his hand with late running action. He wraps his wrist on the back side of his arm stroke, showing the ball to his opponent, but his arm is so quick that his control seems unaffected and his fastball grades as plus. He sells his plus changeup with strong arm speed, and it helped him hold MWL lefties to a .191 average. Sampson's curveball is clearly his third-best pitch because it lacks bite and power, sitting in the low 70s. Plus athleticism allows him to repeat his delivery, which features some effort, and overcome the stigma attached to 6-foot righthanders. The Future: An improved breaking ball would enhance Sampson's profile, but he still has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter or late-inning reliever. He'll be 21 years old as he pitches in high Class A in 2012.