Mark Rogers Stats & Scouting Report

IP	49
ERA	3.49
WHIP	1.122
BB/9	3.122
SO/9	9.551

Full name Mark Elliot Rogers
Born 01/30/1986 in Brunswick, ME
Profile Ht.: 6'3" / Wt.: 240 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Mount Ararat
Debut 09/10/2010
Drafted in the 1st round (5th overall) by the Milwaukee Brewers in 2004 (signed for $2,200,000).

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Unknown to people who weren't area scouts in the Northeast before last summer, Rogers got widespread attention at the East Coast Showcase when his fastball registered 96-97 mph on some guns. His fastball was so dominant against weak competition in Maine this spring that he struck out 99 in his first 38 innings, while allowing just three hits. He also hit almost .600 and was named the state's Gatorade player of the year for the second straight year. Also the captain of both his high school hockey and soccer teams, he has a lean, athletic build with room to fill out and get stronger. Rogers has a three-quarters delivery and throws slightly across his body, but has a loose, explosive arm. He should require just minor adjustments to his delivery. His fastball generally sits in the 90-95 mph range, with natural, hard running action and occasional bore. Rogers' hammer curve has solid rotation with three-quarter break and excellent depth for his arm slot. His 73-77 mph curve is inconsistent because he has an erratic arm slot and tends to drop his elbow, causing it to flatten out. Rogers, who projects as a No. 2 or 3 starter, throws his changeup with good arm speed, deception and sinking action. He has signed with Miami.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

The Brewers had no idea what to expect from Rogers in 2012. The fifth overall pick in the 2004 draft and recipient of a $2.2 million bonus, he had missed most of the 2011 season with carpal tunnel syndrome that required surgery on both wrists, as well as a 25-game suspension for testing positive for a banned stimulant. He struggled early on last year in Triple-A, battling command issues as he tried to scrape off the rust. He started throwing better by July, with the velocity on his fastball increasing to the mid-90s as he worked regularly. He got a better feel for his overhand curveball and threw more strikes with his slider. The timing was fortuitous, as he was ready to move into the major league rotation after Zack Greinke was traded to the Angels in late July. Rogers turned in several impressive starts, though erratic command boosted his pitch counts and led to early exits. He'll need more consistency to stick in the majors, but his comeback from a pair of shoulder surgeries that cost him the 2007 and 2008 seasons has been impressive. Milwaukee shut him down after seven big league starts to protect his arm but will give him every chance to make its rotation in the spring.
After the Brewers gave up Brett Lawrie and Jake Odorizzi in deals for Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum in December 2010, Rogers entered last season as the organization's top prospect. He was fresh off a September callup, a stunning turnaround for a pitcher who missed the 2007 and 2008 seasons while recovering from a pair of shoulder surgeries. The No. 5 overall pick in the 2004 draft and the recipient of a $2.2 million bonus, he arrived in spring training with a chance to earn a job in the big league rotation. Rogers came down with shoulder stiffness, however, then came down with carpal tunnel syndrome in both wrists after he was sent to Triple-A. Though he tried to work through the issue with physical therapy, he ultimately pitched just 44 innings before having surgery on both wrists. After another lost year for Rogers, Milwaukee is left wondering if he'll ever realize his vast potential. Before his latest setback, he was again regularly throwing his fastball in the mid-90s and touching 97 at times. His 12-to-6 curveball was devastating when he threw it for strikes, and he also threw a hard slider and an inconsistent changeup. Rogers has enough stuff to start, but his durability remains a major concern. His control never has been his strong suit and regressed in 2011. The Brewers are worrying more about his health than his future role at this point, but he seems destined for the bullpen.
Rogers missed the entire 2007 and 2008 seasons while recovering from a pair of shoulder surgeries, making it unlikely he would fulfill the expectations that came when he was drafted fifth overall and signed for $2.2 million in 2004. But he has stayed healthy the last two years and regained his stuff. He showed such determination in his comeback that the Brewers rewarded him with an unexpected September callup. Once again, Rogers regularly operates in the mid-90s and touches 97 at times. He throws both two-seamers and four-seamers, generating a lot of life on his fastball. His command has improved from earlier in his pro career, but it's still erratic. He issues too many walks and runs up high pitch counts quickly. When he throws his 12-to-6 curveball for strikes, he can be devastating. He also has a hard slider with good bite, but his changeup remains below average. Now that Rogers has proven he can stay on the mound, Milwaukee must decided whether he can be consistent enough with his command and keep his pitch counts low enough to remain a starter. The Brewers need rotation help more than relievers, and may have him open 2011 as a starter at Triple-A Nashville to make some more refinements.
After not throwing a pitch for two seasons while recovering from multiple shoulder surgeries, Rogers resurfaced with a healthy, productive 2009 season in high Class A. The Brewers were understandably cautious with Rogers, who signed for $2.2 million as the fifth overall pick in the 2004 draft, limiting his workload to a few innings at a time and resisting the urge to promote him. They emphasized the importance of using his legs more in his delivery to take stress off his shoulder, and he accomplished that mission. Rogers, who touched the upper 90s with his fastball before he got hurt, sat at 93-96 mph last year, with the ball coming out of his hand easily. He also showed a sharp-breaking curveball and a deceptive changeup, which were good pitches when he threw them for strikes. Working in short stints, he didn't need to rely on his secondary pitches as much as if he pitched deep into games. Rogers still throws across his body, which compromises his command. He walked 4.0 batters per nine innings in 2009, a marked improvement from his previous career rate of 6.2. Given his difficulty staying healthy and throwing multiple pitches for strikes, Rogers fits best as a reliever and could move quickly once Milwaukee shifts him to that role. He should see Double-A for the first time in 2010.
The fifth overall pick in the 2004 draft, Rogers missed the entire 2007 season after having surgery to repair some fraying and tighten a ligament in his shoulder in January. The Brewers loved his athleticism (he was also a hockey and soccer star in high school) and makeup, and they passed on Homer Bailey to select him--a decision they may rue in the long run. Before hurting his shoulder, Rogers threw his fastball regularly in the mid- to high 90s and had a sharp, over-the-top curveball that kept hitters off balance. He also was making progress with his changeup. But his control and command were highly erratic, as he had trouble repeating his delivery and threw across his body too much. Milwaukee altered his mechanics to correct those flaws, and the tinkering possibly could have caused his shoulder problems. Rogers has kept an upbeat attitude during his long rehab process. Once he returns to the mound, he must realize that it's not enough to just throw his fastball by hitters. He needs to keep his pitch counts down and gain more consistency with his secondary pitches. He's still just 22 and continues to have the upside of a No. 1 starter if he can get healthy and develop as a pitcher. Rogers did some bullpen work during instructional league and should be ready to pitch at the start of the 2008 season. The Brewers could send him to high Class A so he can take advantage of warm weather in the Florida State League.
Two years after selecting Rogers with the fifth overall pick ahead of Jeremy Sowers and Homer Bailey, the Brewers still aren't quite sure what they have. Injuries and control issues have plagued Maine's first-ever high school first-rounder, yet he has averaged 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings as a pro. Rogers has two pitches that make him devastating when he commands them: a mid- to high-90s fastball and a 12-to-6 curveball. He's working on a changeup, and it can be effective because hitters have to watch out for his fastball and curve. A standout hockey and soccer player in high school, he has tremendous athleticism. The Brewers altered Rogers' mechanics because he threw across his body in high school. He still struggles at times to repeat his delivery, which leads to control and command difficulties. The inability to smooth out his mechanics led to shoulder problems in July, effectively ending his season. Rogers' shoulder continued to bother him during the offseason, and he was slated for arthroscopic surgery to pinpoint the cause. If he has surgery, he'll miss the start of the season. He remains a classic high-risk, high-reward player with the raw stuff to be a No. 1 starter or a closer.
Rogers had college scholarship offers in hockey (Dartmouth) and soccer (Duke) and had signed with Miami to play baseball before becoming the first Maine high schooler ever drafted in the first round. Two of Rogers' pitches could earn 70s on the 20-80 scouting scale. His fastball tops out at 100 mph and sits at 95-97 mph with some late cutting action. Rogers' breaking ball has improved substantially, as a once-loopy pitch became a hard mid-80s slider that reaches 90. He's one of the best athletes in the organization. Rogers put up ugly numbers in the low Class A South Atlantic League because he's still trying to control his powerful body and has been unable to repeat his delivery. He throws across his body, though he has toned that down, and still needs to get better extension to keep his pitches down. His fastball straightens out at times. Rogers' stuff, tenacity and Northern background have elicited John Smoltz comparisons from Milwaukee officials. He'll go to high Class A Brevard County in 2006. When he harnesses his body and can command his stuff, he'll move rapidly.
Rogers surfaced as a prospect when he pumped 96-97 mph fastballs at the 2003 East Coast Showcase. The first Maine high schooler ever to go in the first round, he signed for $2.2 million. He was an all-state performer as a pitcher, a hockey forward with legitimate NHL potential and a soccer midfielder. Rogers has a pure power arm, reaching the mid-90s consistently. Even after pitching all spring and summer, he was throwing 91-94 in instructional league. He also has a knee-buckling hammer curveball and a decent changeup. Rogers also attracted scouts with his strong makeup. He scored higher than any draft prospect on his predraft psychological tests. Rogers has some effort to his delivery and throws slightly across his body, flaws Brewers instructors are trying to correct. He has trouble repeating his mechanics, affecting the quality of his command and pitches. An intense competitor, he'll revert to old habits at times to get outs. Rogers profiles as a frontline starter. He'll begin his first full season at Milwaukee's new low Class A West Virginia affiliate.

Minor League Top Prospects

Don't worry, you haven't all of a sudden stumbled upon the FSL Top 20 from 2006, when Rogers ranked seventh. After missing all of 2007 and 2008 with a shoulder injury, he stepped back on the mound in 2009 and showed that his stuff hadn't atrophied. Where Rogers' fastball could flirt with 98-99 mph before the injury, he had to settle for blowing away hitters with 93-96 mph heat in his return. He showed a solid curveball and slider as well, though it was hard to get a good read on his secondary pitches because he pitched in such short stints. He worked as many as five innings just once in 23 starts, so he still has yet to prove his durability. Rogers still throws across his body and his command will never be his strong suit. But if he can throw enough strikes, he has enough stuff to get big league hitters out.
Mr. Rogers is a man of extremes. He could wind up as the best guy on this list, or the worst. He could be a future No. 1 starter, but the fifth overall pick from the 2004 draft (chosen two spots ahead of Bailey) carries a higher risk of flaming out than any other top prospect in the league. Rogers led all minor leaguers by averaging 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings. His arm compares with anyone's in the minors. But where Bailey sat hitters down with his mid-90s fastball, Rogers has trouble commanding his. He walked 6.7 batters per nine innings, one of the worst figures in the minors. Rogers' biggest problem is finding a consistent release point. When he locates his fastball, it's a plus-plus pitch that has late life. His hard, 12-to-6 curveball is a second potentially devastating pitch, but his command of it is well-below-average. His changeup is usable because hitters have to watch out for his other two offerings, but it's a long way from polished. Despite his overwhelming stuff, Rogers was hittable in the FSL because he fell behind hitters too often. He missed the last two months of the season with a shoulder injury that wasn't believed to be serious.
In its first year as a Brewers affiliate, West Virginia had the two highest-drafted players in the league in Braun and Rogers, the fifth overall picks in 2005 and 2004. Rogers wasn't in a position to put up gaudy numbers, however. The Maine product was pushed to full-season ball and placed in a tandem-starter system, making it difficult for him to pitch the five innings needed for a win. His record wasn't indicative of how well he pitched, though it wasn't far off. Rogers was the Sally League's Nuke Laloosh, its hardest thrower and wildest one too. Several managers reported him throwing 100 mph and one scout reported him topping out at 97 several times in one start. His fastball's exceptional velocity doesn't come with corresponding movement, however, because of his mechanics. Rogers throws across his body and lands in a closed position, threatening both his ability to consistently throw strikes and to keep his shoulder healthy. The Brewers worked hard with Rogers to refine his delivery. They're working against some muscle memory, though, and the adjustment may take him time. He has such a live arm and shows a knee-buckling curveball at times, leaving managers and scouts optimistic about his future.
The fifth overall pick in this year's draft, Rogers didn't have a win in his pro debut. But his stuff was the talk of the league, and he was unhittable when he was on his game. "He didn't have a great season, but we're satisfied with his progress," Guerrero said. "You need to go slowly with him. He doesn't know what he's capable of yet. But he's a smart, coachable kid who applies what you teach him." Rogers threw his fastball in the low to mid-90s, with a high of 96-97 mph. He complemented it with a dynamite 12-to-6 curveball and displayed a feel for a changeup. He struggled with command as he fought to maintain a consistent delivery. He also wilted in the oppressive Arizona heat after becoming the first high school first-rounder from Maine.