ProfileHt.: 5'11" / Wt.: 205 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School
Redan
Debut06/19/2010
Drafted in the 1st round (9th overall) by the Colorado Rockies in 2004 (signed for $2,150,000).
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Nelson has athletic ability to spare, and ranked first on at least one team's draft board. Nelson's best tool is his arm, even though he had Tommy John surgery in the fall. Smooth and easy at shortstop, Nelson has fluid infield actions, plenty of range and good baseball savvy. His short, compact swing, makes consistent contact and has solid bat speed. Scouts project him to hit for average power down the road. Plus-plus makeup.
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A summer teammate of Dexter Fowler during their high school days in Georgia, Nelson actually was clocked at 99 mph with his fastball while pitching in the Connie Mack World Series after his junior year. The debate over infield or pitching, however, ended when he tore the ligament in the elbow during the Connie Mack event that year. Injuries have slowed Nelson's pro career, too. After a breakthrough season at high Class A in 2007, Nelson broke his left hamate bone in 2008, tore a ligament in his right wrist in 2009, and tore his left oblique at the end of last spring, costing him a shot at a big league promotion early in the season. He made it up for a week in the majors in June, and another trip to Colorado as a September callup. He provided one of the Rockies' highlights of the season by stealing home to beat the Reds on Sept. 9. Nelson has Gary Sheffield bat speed and can hit any fastball. He is still adjusting to offspeed and breaking pitches, but for a middle infielder he he has good power. Nelson has a tremendous arm and soft hands but has to keep his focus. With Troy Tulowitzki at short for the long term, the Rockies have given Nelson exposure at second and third. The trade of Clint Barmes to the Astros opens second base for competition between Nelson, Jonathan Herrera, Eric Young Jr., and perhaps Jose Lopez. Nelson will need to have a huge spring, because he has an option left. If he doesn't win the everyday job, he likely will return to Triple-A so he can continue to work on his game.
It was considered a coup when the Rockies landed Nelson with the ninth overall pick in the 2004 draft, but the $2.15 million bonus baby is starting to run out of time. A summer league teammate of Dexter Fowler when they were Georgia high schoolers, Nelson hit .299 with 19 homers at Modesto in 2007 but has been held back by injuries ever since. A broken hamate bone in his left hand limited him to 81 games and muted his bat in 2008, while a cartilage problem in his left wrist ended his 2009 season in late May. The bat speed that wowed scouts when Nelson came out of high school is still there, but he has lost too much playing time and has yet to develop plate discipline. He has plus speed and a terrific arm--he was clocked at 99 mph as a junior in high school before he had Tommy John surgery--but hasn't fulfilled his potential as a basestealer or defender. He gets careless at shortstop and likely will wind up at second base or center field. In light of his inability to put together a full season, Nelson is likely headed for a third stint in Double-A to start 2010.
After a second half in 2007 that had Rockies officials thinking that Nelson was ready to live up to expectations of being a first-round pick, he took a step backward last season. He struggled early at Tulsa, and then was sidelined with a broken hamate bone. Nelson returned in the Arizona Fall League, and his offensive performance started to trend upward again. Considered the best high school prospect in the 2004 draft, Nelson--a summer league teammate of Dexter Fowler in high school--still has exceptional bat speed that evokes Gary Sheffield. He lacks the plate discipline to take advantage of his fast hands, however. He will chase breaking pitches, which was exposed when he moved up a level. He has a laser arm, but never looks comfortable at shortstop (18 errors in 44 games at Tulsa). He projects as a second baseman and would have been moved last year, but coming off that strong second half in 2007 the Rockies did not want to disrupt the offensive development. With a return to Tulsa this year, he'll move to second.
A two-way star in high school, Nelson concentrated on shortstop after having Tommy John surgery as a junior. The Georgia state player of the year in 2004, he went ninth overall in the draft and signed for $2.15 million. He struggled in two years in low Class A in 2005-06, but had a breakout season in the hitter-friendly high Class A California League in 2007. Nelson has excellent bat speed, drawing comparisons to a young Gary Sheffield. Once he lowered and quieted his hands in his stance in July, he hit .333 with 13 homers in the last two months. He showed marked improvement looking for a pitch to hit and not missing it when he got it. He has plus speed and arm strength, as well as excellent work habits. Nelson needs to smooth out his footwork defensively, particularly when he gets into throwing position. The Rockies say he improved his range and reliability at shortstop and no longer seems on the verge of moving to second base or center field. In his fifth pro season, he's ready for Double- A. He'll continue to stay at shortstop, though Tulowitzki ahead of him and Gomez behind make it unlikely Nelson will play there in Colorado. He has more upside than Clint Barmes and Jayson Nix, who figure to be the Rockies' second basemen in 2008.
Despite having Tommy John surgery prior to his senior season of high school, Nelson managed to go in the top 10 picks of the 2004 draft because of his athleticism and offensive potential. He has had a rough initiation into pro ball, and still has some maturing to do. Nelson has allowed his offensive struggles impact his game. He lost his focus at times defensively and led the low Class A South Atlantic League with 41 errors. What he hasn't lost is the package of tools that made him the ninth-overall pick in the 2004 draft. He has plus speed and will be a good baserunner. He has quick hands that give him a chance to be an impact offensive player once he stops overanalyzing everything. In repeating the SAL, Nelson showed encouraging signs at the plate, hitting 38 doubles and four more home runs than he had in his first year and a half. He has raw power and can drive the ball to all fields. He likely will wind up in center field or at second base, but he has the raw tools to be a shortstop. He gets caught in between on whether to charge, and can be overaggressive with his throws. Nelson should earn an assignment to high Class A this season.
The Orioles planned on taking Nelson with the eighth overall pick in 2004 until owner Peter Angelos mandated they choose a college pitcher. The Rockies gladly selected him at No. 9 and signed him for $2.15 million. He never got untracked in 2005 while battling groin and hamstring injuries. Nelson is a line-drive hitter with plus speed. The Rockies think he can hit 25-plus homers on an annual basis once he matures physically and develops lift in his swing. One of the best athletes in the system, he has the size, instincts, quick feet and arm to play shortstop. Nelson's plate discipline left something to be desired in 2005, robbing him of the ability to drive the ball with authority. He also developed a bit of a hitch in his throwing motion, a possible side effect after having Tommy John surgery prior to his senior year in high school. He didn't square up to the target on throws during the regular season and focused on correcting that during instructional league. Nelson profiles at shortstop, but so does Tulowitzki, who should beat him to Colorado. Nelson, who will open 2006 in high Class A, could move to second base or center field if needed.
Despite having Tommy John surgery prior to his senior season, Nelson hit .552-8-44 to earn BA High School All-America honors. The Orioles were poised to take him eighth overall last June before owner Peter Angelos insisted on a college pitcher. The Rockies gladly pounced on Nelson with the next pick, signed him for $2.15 million and watched him rank as the top prospect in the Pioneer League. Nelson already has a feel for using the entire field, and he has the power to drive the ball the opposite way. His quick hands and strong wrists will allow him to catch up to inside fastballs. He's an above-average runner. Nelson needs to learn to play under control in the field. He tends to spin when he throws, and must set his feet to improve his accuracy. He struck out more than once a game in his debut and will have to make better contact at higher levels. Nelson is a rare shortstop with the potential to bat in the middle of the order. Ticketed for low Class A in 2005, he and Ian Stewart should lock down the left side of Colorado's infield for years to come.
Minor League Top Prospects
The ninth overall pick in the 2004 draft, Nelson was the league's most improved player after struggling at the plate and in the field during his first two full pro seasons. After he lowered his hands in July, he was able to use his tremendous bat speed to drive the ball. He hit .333 with 13 homers and 62 RBIs in the final two months. Nelson also has plus speed and stole 27 bases in 32 attempts. Prior to the season, he seemed ticketed for second base or center field because he was too erratic and didn't cover enough ground. But he may have saved his job at shortstop by improving his range and fundamentals while reining in his strong arm. "He made all the plays defensively," one manager said.
The No. 9 overall pick in the 2004 draft, Nelson might have been expected to get just half a year's worth of at-bats for the Tourists before the season began. That would have been based on the expectation that he would have earned a promotion, not because he played a very ordinary half-season plagued by injuries. Essentially it was a lost season for Nelson, who got off to a 2-for-20 start after missing part of spring training with a groin pull, then missed another 1 1/2 months when his hamstring flared up, prompting his return to extended spring training. He came back with two hits in his first game back but never got in a groove, needing to play DH or take occasional days off because of the injury. When he did play, Nelson showed a solid swing but failed to control the strike zone or drive the ball as consistently as he had in his debut. He was also limited defensively, though when healthy he has the arm strength and range to be an asset at shortstop.
Less than a year removed from Tommy John surgery, Nelson made a quick comeback during the spring and became the ninth overall pick in the draft. Though his two-way aspirations came to an end--he was armed with a mid-90s fastball before hurting his elbow--he has star potential at shortstop. Nelson's short, quick righthanded swing has been likened to Gary Sheffield's--the gold standard of comparisons from scouts. He has good balance at the plate and allows pitches to get deep before unleashing his hands and wrists, making consistent, hard contact. He also has above-average speed. Nelson spent much of the summer as Casper's DH in order to preserve his arm, which, naturally, was sore at times. When he played shortstop, he showed one of the best throwing arms in the league and good range. He'll need to get to grounders a little further out in front of his body.
Top 100 Rankings
Best Tools List
Rated Best Athlete in the Colorado Rockies in 2006
Rated Best Infield Arm in the Colorado Rockies in 2005
Rated Best Athlete in the Colorado Rockies in 2005
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