Drafted in the 3rd round (119th overall) by the Chicago White Sox in 2007 (signed for $240,750).
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Ely can't fill out a uniform or light up a radar gun as well as his Miami teammate Connor Graham can, but he has outperformed Graham in college and in the Cape Cod League and has a better chance to be a major league starter. Ely is just 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds, and he has a head jerk in his maximum-effort delivery. His stuff is hard to argue with, however. His 89-94 mph fastball and his vastly improved changeup both qualify as plus pitches, and his curve is an average offering. Though he lacks smooth mechanics, he throws strikes and has a resilient arm that never has given him problems. His delivery also gives him deception that makes him harder to hit. Ely also is an intense competitor who helped his cause by pitching a complete-game seven-hitter at Texas in March. Though Graham scores better in what the NFL would call
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Few minor league pitchers had a better 2009 than Ely. He led the Southern League in wins (14) and strikeouts (125 in 156 innings), and no minor leaguer who worked at least 150 innings could match his ERA (2.82) or winning percentage (.875). He doesn't have the kind of pure stuff that excites scouts, but he has outstanding makeup and a history of winning. Going back to his days as a high school star in suburban Chicago, he has posted an 83-27 record. His preparation, intensity and poise are major assets, almost as important as his plus changeup. Ely's lack of a consistent 90 mph fastball makes scouts doubt if he can succeed against elite hitters, but his mid- 70s changeup is an equalizer. He also knows how to add and subtract with his fastball, which sits at 87-89 mph. His command usually improves as the season goes on, and he had a 1.68 ERA in the second half of 2009. Ely's curveball remains a work in progress, in part because he has so much success with his fastball and changeup that he's reluctant to use a third pitch. He added a cut fastball last season, giving him another option when teams stack lefthanders against him. They hit .271 off him last season, compared to .217 by righthanders. Ely is durable and never has missed a start in college or pro ball. He'll try to prove himself yet again in Triple-A this season.
In his first full season as a pro, Ely skipped low Class A and struggled initially, going 3-11, 5.51 through mid-July. But he rallied to go 7-1, 2.86 in his last eight starts, helping Winston-Salem reach the playoffs. He has a history of winning, going 69-25 dating to his days as a star at Homewood-Flossmoor High in the Chicago suburbs. Ely's best pitch is a plus-plus changeup, and he does a nice job of setting it up with an 88-94 mph fastball with good movement. His 12-to-6 curveball can be an out pitch at times, too. Ely works fast, throws strikes and has never missed a start. He's a fierce competitor and fields his position well. Ely's curveball remains inconsistent and gets hit a long way when he hangs it. He sometimes seems reluctant to work inside, minimizing his advantage against righthanders. He lacks a big frame and a traditional delivery, and there's a lot of effort in his delivery. With a solid rotation and prospects such as Aaron Poreda and Clayton Richard ahead of him, there's no reason to rush Ely. He'll move to Double-A Birmingham and could figure in midseason trade speculation, especially if the pitchers ahead of him continue to progress.
A product of Chicago's far South Side, Ely emerged as a prospect during his college career at Miami (Ohio). He boosted his standing for the 2007 draft with a strong showing in the Cape Cod League after his sophomore season, and did nothing to hurt it with a junior season that included a complete-game at Texas. Signed for $240,750 as a third-round pick, he has won wherever he has pitched, amassing a 59-13 record between high school, college and pro ball. Ely is a strike thrower who works quickly and comes right at hitters with three quality pitches--a low-90s fastball with good movement, a plus-plus changeup with sink and a curveball that improved throughout his pro debut. His fastball and changeup have a lot of life, inducing batters to beat them into the ground. He's a fierce competitor. Ely's lack of size and his max-effort delivery lead to concerns about his durability. But he has never had arm problems and his mechanics add to his deception without ruining his control. The White Sox would be best served to leave Ely's delivery alone. He should reach high Class A at some point this year and could be the first player from Chicago's 2007 draft class to reach the majors.
Minor League Top Prospects
Ely was 3-11, 5.51 in mid-July before going 7-1, 2.86 in his final eight starts, showing three quality pitches and plus command. He's aggressive with an 88-94 mph fastball that typically sits at 91 with good movement and induces groundballs. Ely's best pitch is an above-average changeup with movement and fade that usually arrives 12 mph slower than his fastball. He sells it with good arm speed and action, though he sometimes relies on the pitch too much. Ely mixes in a 12-to-6 curveball that can be a put-away pitch but he doesn't always trust it. He's a strong competitor who can keep his team in a game when he doesn't have his best stuff. He's not big and there's effort in his delivery, but he never has had arm problems and should be able to hold up as a starter.
Ely overmatched Pioneer League hitters in his pro debut by consistently by consistently throwing strikes and using his 91-93 mph fastball to set them up for a plus changeup that ranks as his best pitch. His curveball was a solid pitch for him at Miami (Ohio) this spring, though it received mixed reviews from those who saw him this summer. Ely has a deceptive delivery that he repeats well and keeps hitters off balance, but he's also a max-effort pitcher with a head jerk. There are some concerns about how his ability to avoid injuries with his mechanics, but he has no history of arm problems in the past. He's extremely competitive on the mound.
Best Tools List
Rated Best Changeup in the Chicago White Sox in 2010
Rated Best Changeup in the Chicago White Sox in 2009
Rated Best Control in the Carolina League in 2008
Rated Best Breaking Pitch in the Carolina League in 2008
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