Seth Blair Stats & Scouting Report

IP	458.667
ERA	4.827
WHIP	1.535
BB/9	4.945
SO/9	8.124

Full name Seth A. Blair
Born 03/03/1989 in Rock Falls, IL
Profile Ht.: 6'2" / Wt.: 185 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Arizona State
Drafted in the C-A round (46th overall) by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2010 (signed for $751,500).

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A Top 200 draft prospect out of Rock Falls (Ill.) High in 2007, signability caused Blair to drop to the 47th round and he headed west to Arizona State. He always had good stuff, and his results have taken a step forward every year there. He came into the season expecting to be Arizona State's Saturday starter, but was thrust into the Friday night lights when lefthander Josh Spence was shut down all season. He stepped up nicely, helping the Sun Devils get off to a 24-0 start and rank among the nation's top teams all season. Blair showed electric stuff earlier in the season, sitting 93-95 mph and even touching 97. He tailed off a little as the year went on, but he still pitches at 92-94. It's a heavy fastball with riding life and some sink when it's down in the zone, although it can flatten out later in games. His curveball is an average pitch now with a chance to be plus. He has a good changeup and a cutter that he uses occasionally. A long arm action in the back and some pulling off to his glove side cause him to have average command. His walk rate is down this year, but he still hits a batter nearly every game and runs up a high pitch count that causes him to leave games earlier than teams would like to see out of top pitchers. Blair is a Boras Corp. client, but teams don't consider him a particularly tough sign.

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Before Blair ever had a chance last year to reclaim his spot with the system's other high-round, high-expectations pitchers, he felt a recurring and crippling pain in his right hand. An MRI revealed an enchondroma tumor nestled into the knuckle on his middle finger. The tumor had caused microfractures that radiated out from his knuckle and required surgery that kept him off the mound until late July. The 46th overall selection in 2010, Blair salvaged 20 innings in the regular season and another 20 in the Arizona Fall League. It wasn't the bounceback he imagined but it did halt a downward spiral that began with a total loss of control and a suspension in 2011. The Cardinals were drawn to Blair because of his consistency at Arizona State, a trait that failed him in his pro debut. Rehab gave him a chance to reset. When Blair is right, he works with a 92-94 mph sinker and a curveball that could become a plus pitch. He has some feel for his changeup, giving it a chance to become effective. Blair has fallen behind pitchers drafted after him, but he'll compete for a spot in the Double-A rotation this year and try to regain lost ground.
One of the traits that drew the Cardinals to Blair with the 46th overall pick in the 2010 draft was the one that failed him most in his pro debut last summer: start-to-start reliability. He posted a 5.70 ERA in the second half of the Midwest League season, averaging barely four innings per start while walking 30 batters in 36 innings. He spent three weeks on the disabled list in August to rest and reboot, then was suspended before the MWL playoffs for a violation of organization policy. As the Pacific-10 Conference pitcher of the year in 2010 and during successful stints in the Cape Cod League, Blair had demonstrated consistency and blistering stuff. At his best, he has a fastball that hums at 92-94 mph and touches 96 with good sink, though he often worked at 88-93 mph in low Class A. His curveball has the makings of a plus pitch, while his changeup lags far behind. Blair's command and concentration betrayed him throughout 2011. One observer described him as "pitching distracted," and both his velocity and control suffered. Blair still has the stuff to become a No. 3 starter if he can improve his focus and stop sabotaging himself.
It's hard to imagine St. Louis going through a draft without taking a pitcher like Blair. He displayed start-to-start reliability in a top conference and Cape Cod League success, two traits the Cardinals value. After a 12-1, 3.64 All-America junior season at Arizona State, Blair went 46th overall in the 2010 draft and signed for $751,500. Blair flashes electric stuff. He touched 98 mph in his first start last spring, and his fastball usually operates at 92-94 and tops out at 96. His heater has good life and some sink. His curveball projects as a possible plus pitch, and he's working on both a changeup and cutter. He slashed his walk rate in 2010 but still floats too many pitches out of the strike zone. Cleaning up his mechanics would improve his control and make him more economical. After throwing 106 innings in the spring, Blair took a break and didn't sign until late July, so St. Louis elected not to push his arm back into game action. He spent time at Batavia, throwing on the side and getting acclimated to pro ball, and will make his debut this spring in Class A. The Cardinals will develop him as a starter, but if he can't refine a third pitch and his command, he could become a late-inning reliever.