Drafted in the 1st round (14th overall) by the Cincinnati Reds in 2003 (signed for $1,400,000).
View Draft Report
Brad Sullivan was the must-see pitcher on the Houston staff at the outset of this spring, and while Sullivan still will be a first-round pick, Wagner has passed him. His regular-season average of 16.8 strikeouts per nine innings led Division I and will smash a 39-year-old NCAA record if it holds up. Wagner has the most unhittable slider in the draft and uses it 60-70 percent of the time. He complements it with a 91-93 mph sinker, and occasionally throws a curveball and splitter. There are concerns about Wagner's delivery, which features a lot of effort and a head jerk. Some scouts think his arm action eventually will lead to an injury, while others say his 6-foot-4, 210-pound frame is strong enough to survive it. Wagner will go in the middle of the first round, perhaps higher if a team thinks they can convert him from a reliever to a starter. He's attractive to the Reds (No. 14) and Red Sox (No. 17), two clubs that do a lot of statistical analysis. A draft-eligible sophomore, he's not expected to be a tough sign.
Top Rankings
Organization Prospect Rankings
Because he turned 21 within 45 days of the draft, Wagner was eligible following his sophomore season at Houston. Undrafted out of high school partly because he asked for $500,000 to sign, he became last spring's most pleasant draft surprise. He went from being an unheralded freshman to an All-American to a first-rounder to a major leaguer by the middle of July. He needed just 46 days and all of nine innings between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville to earn a promotion to Cincinnati after signing for $1.4 million. His rapid trek to the big leagues was the fastest since Athletics 1995 first-rounder Ariel Prieto needed just 28 days in the minors. Wagner broke a 39-year-old NCAA Division I record by fanning 16.8 hitters per nine innings, while limiting college opponents to a .147 average. He held big leaguers to a meager .173 clip, but was shut down as a precaution after shouldering a heavy workload: 79 innings for Houston and 31 more after signing. It was nothing more than a precaution, as Wagner was exhausted and the Reds didn't want to risk taxing his arm.
Wagner's 84-87 mph slider is downright unhittable and grades as a top-of-the-scouting-scale 80 pitch at times. It features sharp, late tilt in the zone and darts away from the barrel of the bat. Hitters have a difficult time identifying his slider, and often think it's a splitter or true curveball because of its depth. Wagner isn't a one-trick pony, however. His fastball sits at 91-94 mph and features hard sink and boring action to induce ground balls. His fastball movement is so good that hitters will have a tough time laying off his slider and sitting on his fastball. He showed enough resiliency and durability to work multiple-inning stints for Houston. Though he rarely needs it, Wagner shows a feel for an average changeup, leading some scouts to think he could hold down a rotation spot. Not many scouts project Wagner as a starter, however, because his delivery and arm action might not be conducive to a rotation workload. While he'll drop his arm slot at times to create more movement on his fastball, that also causes additional stress on his shoulder--even more than when he relies heavily on his slider. The Reds would like him to become more consistent with his slot and repeating his delivery.
Following Wagner's promotion to the majors, the Reds discussed moving him to the rotation in 2004, but they now seem content to groom him as their future closer. College closers don't often duplicate their success in the majors, but there's little doubt Wagner can overmatch hitters at any level. If he's not Cincinnati's closer coming out of spring training, he'll be one of the better set-up men in the National League.
Top 100 Rankings
Download our app
Read the newest magazine issue right on your phone