Drafted in the 3rd round (91st overall) by the Boston Red Sox in 1996.
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Organization Prospect Rankings
Stenson ranked No. 1 on this list year ago, but the Red Sox left him to rot during a third straight season in Triple-A. Managers rated him the best hitting prospect in the Double-A Eastern League in 1998 and in the Triple-A International League in 1999, but Boston never showed much inclination to include Stenson in its big league plans. Where he once was a promising young hitter, he now chases bad pitches, perhaps in an attempt to do too much. He still has some problems with breaking pitches. The bottom line is that he'll have to hit to play in the majors, because he can't do anything else. He's slow and a subpar defender in the outfield and at first base. He's not in the best of shape, though he's more toned than Juan Diaz or Calvin Pickering--not that that's saying much. One of five first baseman on the Red Sox' 40-man roster in January, Stenson's chances of reaching Fenway Park aren't getting any better. A change of scenery probably would be for the best.
At the time, Baseball America rated the Red Sox' 1996 draft the best in the game. Now it appears Stenson may be all they get out of that crop. The other most promising prospects from that draft are all with other teams: righthander Chris Reitsma (first round, now with the Reds), outfielder John Barnes (fourth, Twins) and lefthander Rob Ramsay (seventh, Mariners). And Stenson's star has dimmed. He was named the best batting prospect and No. 2 prospect in the Double-A Eastern League in 1998 and in the Triple-A International League in 1999, but tailed off in a return trip to the IL in 2000. USA Baseball inquired about adding Stenson to the Olympic team, but the Red Sox didn't give their consent--and then didn't promote him in September. He missed time early last year with wrist and hamstring injuries. Stenson has the tools to be the impact hitter the Red Sox desperately need in a lineup that has just two, Nomar Garciaparra and Carl Everett. He has the balance, bat speed, short stroke and pitch recognition to produce for both average and power. Nobody in Boston's lineup can match Stenson's power potential. He didn't turn 22 until midseason last year, so he's still ahead of the normal development cycle, and he has never been overmatched despite consistently being one of the youngest players in his league. He made decent progress against lefthanders in 2000 after struggling against them the year before. For all his offensive gifts, Stenson has batted .257, .268 and .268 the last three seasons. And if he doesn't mash in the major leagues, he won't play because he contributes nothing beyond his bat. Originally an outfielder, he put on weight and slowed down, prompting a move to first base in 1999. Stenson led all minor league first basemen with 34 errors and was even worse defensively than that would suggest. He played at first and in left field last year, and he probably will never be more than adequate at either position. Boston is overloaded with first base/left field/DH types, so Stenson could be in for a third trip to Triple-A to begin 2001. In a perfect world, he wouldn't be an organization's No. 1 prospect. But the Red Sox system is far from perfect.
Background: Last year, the Red Sox said Stenson had the potential to be their next big-time prospect. This year, he went out and proved them right. He was a standout football and baseball player in high school, though he's not your usual raw football player learning how to play baseball. He's always been a baseball-first player and was Georgia's 4-A player of the year in 1996. He has leapt through the Red Sox system, going from the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 1996 to Class A Michigan in 1997 and Double-A Trenton in 1998. Eastern League managers rated him the league's best hitting prospect and No. 2 prospect overall. And by the way, he was also one of the youngest players in the league. As evidence of his growing power, Stenson became the second player to hit a home run into the Delaware River beyond right field in Trenton this year. The other was Tigers first baseman Tony Clark.
Strengths: Stenson is a strong kid with a great lefthanded swing that should allow him to hit for average and power. He has an easy, short stroke with natural lift and nearly unlimited power potential. He's quiet to the ball, uses his hands well, has good bat speed and can turn on balls on the inner half. He has good pitch recognition and strike-zone judgment, though he still strikes out a lot.
Weaknesses: He loves to hit so much that his defense has not developed as quickly. But he has playable tools and should become a fine left fielder. His speed is average at best, and he'll have to watch his weight, as his body is a little thick. He's probably too patient a hitter for his own good.
The Future: After the season he had as a 20-year-old in Double-A, Stenson is learning that he can be as good as he wants to be. The Red Sox will continue to try to push him by sending him to Triple-A Pawtucket.
Minor League Top Prospects
After losing Mo Vaughn to the Angels and before Brian Daubach emerged as a rookie-of-the-year candidate, the Red Sox were desperate for a first baseman. So in spring training, they moved Stenson from the outfield to first base and crossed their fingers. The results were mixed. He made a whopping 34 errors in 115 games, which is hard to do for a first baseman. But Stenson, who was rated Boston's No. 1 prospect before the season, continued his progress as a hitter. A lefthanded batter with power to all fields, he continued to drive in runs as a Triple-A rookie. The errors didn't bother Stenson's manager, Gary Jones, or other IL managers. "For a 21-year-old, he's made a tremendous amount of improvement at a new position," Jones said. "And when he stands in the (batter's) box, there's a certain presence about him."
Top 100 Rankings
Best Tools List
Rated Best Hitter for Average in the Boston Red Sox in 2001
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