Drafted in the 2nd round (59th overall) by the Chicago White Sox in 2002 (signed for $650,000).
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Reed hasn't played up to expectations this spring after two solid years at Long Beach State and a summer season in which he led Team USA's college squad in batting (.366 in 101 at-bats). He projects as a fourth outfielder. An accomplished center fielder, he isn't a burner, doesn't throw that well and has nothing more than gap power.
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Reed ranked as the White Sox' top prospect after leading the minors with a .373 average and .453 on-base percentage in 2003. When they traded Freddy Garcia, the Mariners insisted on Reed in a package that included Miguel Olivo and Mike Morse. He batted .397 in his big league debut. A natural line-drive hitter, Reed controls the strike zone and makes consistent sweet-spot contact. He runs well; his instincts make him a stolen-base threat. His September performance convinced Seattle he can handle center field. His arm is average. Scouts from other clubs aren't as sure he can stay in center--particularly in spacious Safeco Field. He needs to improve his jumps and routes on fly balls. Reed may max out at 15 homers a season, which would be below-average power if he has to move to left. Already having proven he's more qualified than Randy Winn, Reed should open 2005 as Seattle's center fielder. He should fit nicely behind Ichiro Suzuki in the No. 2 slot in the order.
Doug Laumann, who lasted three years as the White Sox' scouting director, may have hit a home run with Reed. Reed played mostly first base during his first two seasons at Long Beach State before moving to the outfield as a junior. Laumann and scouts Joe Butler and Matt Hattabaugh saw enough to project him as a big league center fielder. They may turn out to be exactly right. It required less faith to envision Reed producing with a wood bat. He used wood when he won the Alaska League MVP award in 2000, and again when he led Team USA in hitting with a .366 average in 2001. But even Chicago has been surprised at how quickly Reed has adapted to pro ball. After hitting .319 at low Class A Kannapolis in his pro debut, Reed led the minors with a .373 average and .453 on base percentage last year. He was at his best after a promotion to Double-A Birmingham, hitting .409-7-43 with 18 steals in 66 games. After the season, Reed started in the outfield for the Team USA squad that was upset by Mexico in the Olympic qualifying tournament.
Reed can really hit. He not only has a simple stroke that allows him to make contact almost at will but he also has a terrific eye for the strike zone. He walked nearly twice as much as he struck out in 2003. Wally Backman, his manager at Birmingham last year, says Reed has such an advanced ability to anticipate pitches that he sometimes helps teammates prepare for at-bats. Like a young Rafael Palmeiro, Reed uses the whole park with his line-drive stroke and should develop more power in time, though he'll generate a lot more doubles than homers. He'll probably max out at 15-20 homers annually. He doesn't have any problems with lefthanders, hitting them at a .352 clip last year. Reed runs well and has a natural aggressiveness that allows him to stretch hits into an extra base. He has become an average center fielder and should get better with more experience there. His arm is average, and he could possibly play right field if he can't stick in center. Reed's aggressiveness occasionally turns into recklessness. He needs to pick his spots better as a basestealer after getting caught in 13 of 31 attempts in Double-A. If he proves unable to handle center field, he won't have the home run power typical of a corner outfielder. Nevertheless, he should provide enough offense to hold down a job in left or right. Reed sprained his right wrist while with the U.S. qualifying team, but he's expected to be fine by spring training.
After finishing third behind Twins catcher Joe Mauer and Royals righthander Zack Greinke in BA's 2003 Minor League Player of the Year race, Reed is on the fast track to Chicago. He'll go to big league camp as a nonroster invitee, and the White Sox don't have a clear-cut center fielder. Several club officials would like to see Reed get a full season at Triple-A Charlotte, however, and he'll likely open the season playing alongside Joe Borchard there. With Magglio Ordonez one year away from free agency, it's conceivable both Reed and Borchard will be regulars in 2005.
A former Alaska League MVP and Team USA batting leader, Reed is your basic Dave Martinez starter kit. He played mostly first base in his first two seasons at Long Beach State but was drafted as an outfielder and played the outfield exclusively at Kannapolis, where his .319 average was almost 30 points higher than any teammate. Reed is a line-drive hitter who uses the entire park. He has limited power but could develop more because of his solid grasp of hitting. Reed has good speed and is aggressive on the bases, stretching singles into doubles. He's not a blazer but could steal 30-40 bases a season. Reed played some center field in his pro debut but fits better in right. He's an interesting guy, especially for an organization that hasn't had much luck with lefthanded hitters.
Minor League Top Prospects
The biggest prize for the Mariners in late June's Freddy Garcia trade with the White Sox, Reed drew Mark Kotsay comparisons from all corners of the PCL. They're extremely similar hitters who hit for average, make consistent line-drive contact and draw their share of walks. They both squeeze every ounce of ability out of their tools. Both have 15-homer power, and that might be a problem for Reed. He's a little quicker than Kotsay but can't match his defensive instincts, so Reed may not be able to man center field in Seattle. He plays shallow and is a borderline average center fielder, but average probably isn't good enough for spacious Safeco Field. If Reed has to move, his power will be substandard for a left fielder. He's still gifted enough at the plate, on the bases and in the field to help a club at that position, but he profiles better if he can stay in center.
After leading the minors in batting (.373) and on-base percentage (.453) in 2003, Reed moved up to the IL before being sent to Seattle as the key player in the Freddy Garcia trade in late June. Reed's numbers weren't as gaudy in 2004, yet he had another productive season. He's a lefthanded line-drive hitter who consistently has drawn more walks than strikeouts. He'd make a terrific leadoff man, as he gets on base and has the speed and aggression to be a basestealing threat. There are two questions with Reed. The first is whether he covers enough ground to be more than an adequate center. The second is whether he'll hit for enough power if he moves to a corner.
Reed had more success in Double-A than he had in the high Class A Carolina League in every category except basestealing. He hit safely in 19 of his first 20 games with Birmingham, and though some managers thought he tired late in the season, it didn't show. He hit .431 in August and September, though he struggled in the playoffs. Reed earned some Mark Kotsay comparisons in college, especially after hitting .368 with wood bats for Team USA in 2001, but the White Sox likened him more to journeyman Dave Martinez entering 2003. Needless to say, he has raised expectations. "The guy can just hit. He can do it all offensively," a National League scout said. "He hits lefthanders real well, which is really impressive. But he hits everybody. He's more of a gap-power guy for now, but you can project more power down the line, maybe 15-20 home runs." Just as impressive, Reed runs well enough to play center field, and his arm is strong and accurate enough for right. Managers praised his savvy in all aspects of the game.
With little fanfare, Reed led Team USA in hitting in 2001, outpacing future first-round picks Michael Aubrey, Carlos Quentin and Rickie Weeks. He went straight to full-season ball as a second-round pick in 2002 and batted .319, yet still remained anonymous. That changed in 2003, when Reed led the minors in batting (.373) and on-base percentage (.453). He has good speed and plays a fine center field. The only question that remains is his ability to hit for power, and some managers say it will come. At worst, he should be able to hit 15 homers a year. "Here's a guy who has all the tools," Salem manager John Massarelli said. "He's athletic, has good arm strength and has some power from the left side that I believe has great upside. His power will only develop for him. He had 18 doubles in the Carolina League and then went and hit seven homers in Birmingham, which isn't a very good park to hit in."
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Rated Best Strike-Zone Discipline in the Seattle Mariners in 2005
Rated Best Hitter for Average in the Seattle Mariners in 2005
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