Ethan Small

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Milwaukee Brewers #17 prospect in 2023
  BA Grade/Risk: 40/High
  
  Track Record: After having Tommy John surgery in college, Small returned to Mississippi State as a redshirt junior in 2019 to lead the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts and rank second in ERA. The Brewers' first-round pick at No. 28 overall that year, Small reached Triple-A in 2021, but his stock has dropped since then. He started 2022 with an ERA of 0.77 through five April starts and made a pair of major league appearances in May and July, but from June on he had a 6.82 ERA as he struggled with walks and moved to the bullpen at the end of the year.
  
  Scouting Report: Small pitches at 89-92 mph and can reach back for 95. It's not big velocity, but when Small is at his best, he's able to keep hitters off balance by liberally mixing his plus changeup. He sells his changeup like a fastball out of his hand, then it tumbles underneath bats to rack up whiffs with lots of separation off his fastball at 78-81 mph. Finding a reliable breaking ball has been a focal point for Small, who has made some progress with a slider, though it's still a below-average pitch. Small drew praise for his pitchability coming out of college, but he got into trouble last year because his control escaped him. He walked 13% of hitters in Triple-A, and especially struggled to land his offspeed stuff in the zone. That allowed opponents to get ahead in the count and tee off on a hittable fastball.
  
  The Future: Entering his age-26 season, Small will need to improve his control to carve out a big league role, which is looking more likely to be in relief. He probably opens 2023 back in Triple-A.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 40. Slider: 40. Changeup: 60. Control: 40.
• 
  Ranked Milwaukee Brewers #9 prospect in 2022
  Track Record: Small had Tommy John surgery at Mississippi State but returned to rank second in the Southeastern Conference in ERA and first in strikeouts in 2019 as a redshirt junior. The Brewers drafted him 28th overall and signed him for $1.8 million. Small made his full-season debut in 2021 and raced to Triple-A while posting a 1.98 ERA across 18 starts. He missed most of July and August with a strained tendon in his left middle finger, but made up the lost innings in winter ball pitching for Escogido in the Dominican League.
  
  Scouting Report: Small won’t overpower anyone, but he keeps hitters off balance. His high-spin fastball sits at 89-93 and his best pitch is his plus changeup, which he disguises to look like a fastball out of his hand before it parachutes underneath bats. Small is a competitive pitcher who leans heavily on his changeup and doesn’t use his breaking stuff much, with a curveball and slider that are both fringe-average at times. Small will vary his leg lifts and the tempo of his delivery to try to disrupt the hitter’s timing. Small was known for his polish and strike-throwing at Mississippi State, but his control regressed in 2021 with an overly-high 13% walk rate.
  
  The Future: Small has a chance to develop into a solid back-end starter if he can find a breaking ball and rediscover his previous control. He should make his major league debut in 2021, possibly as a reliever given the Brewers’ current rotation.
  
• 
  Ranked Milwaukee Brewers #4 prospect in 2021
  Fastball: 50. Slider: 45. Changeup: 55. Curveball: 45. Control: 60.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Small had Tommy John surgery at Mississippi State but bounced back to lead the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts and rank second in ERA as a redshirt junior in 2019. The performance vaulted him into the first round, where the Brewers drafted him 28th overall and signed him for $1.8 million. Small breezed through five starts at low Class A Wisconsin and spent 2020 at the Brewers’ alternate training site in Appleton, Wis.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Small relies on his polish, deception and pitchability. His fastball sits at 89-93 mph and touches 94. It plays up with riding life and is aided by his ability to throw it for strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone. Small hides the ball and messes with hitters’ timing by varying his leg lift and tempo in his delivery. His slightly above-average changeup is his best offspeed weapon and plays well off his fastball to generate empty swings or weak contact. Small throws a curveball and added a slider to his mix in 2020, but sharpening his breaking stuff is a focal point. Neither one is average, though his feel for pitching is so good he probably won’t be tested until he gets to Double-A.
  
  THE FUTURE: Small’s polish is evident. He projects as a starter who fits toward the back of a rotation.
• 
  Ranked Milwaukee Brewers #4 prospect in 2020
  TRACK RECORD: Small improved his draft stock markedly with a huge junior season at Mississippi State. He led the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts (176), finished second in ERA (1.93) and ranked third in both innings (107) and opponent average (.164). Instead of going in the third to fifth rounds as expected, Small went 28th overall to the Brewers and signed for $1.8 million after leading the Bulldogs to the College World Series.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Small compiles huge strikeout numbers by getting great extension with his long arms and using a deceptive delivery. He doesn't throw as hard as he did prior to Tommy John surgery in 2017 and sits mostly in the 89-92 mph range, but his advanced command, extension and deception make it appear much harder. He has also learned to vary the tempo of his delivery, adding some pauses with a bit of crossfire action. Small's above-average curveball is more of a “slurve” that generates swings and misses from lefthanded hitters, while his fringe-average changeup plays up with his deceiving arm action and late fade to neutralize righthanded hitters.
  
  THE FUTURE: With no real plus pitch, Small profiles as more of a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he also has an advanced feel for pitching and has proven to be an overachiever. He will open 2020 at high Class A Carolina.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #45 prospect in 2019 draft
  Small's 2019 season was an excellent demonstration of how a pitcher can dramatically improve his draft stock by simply excelling week after week. When the season began, Small was seen as a potential fourth- to fifth-round pick as a durable and successful Southeastern Conference Friday starter with average stuff. The assessment of his pure stuff hasn't changed all that much, but his control and command has ticked up and no one can deny the extremely impressive results. Small was second in Division I in strikeout rate (15 K/9) as of early May. A 26th-round pick of the D-Backs last year as a redshirt sophomore, Small has bounced back well from the Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2017 season. This season, opposing hitters have struggled to see and connect with his 89-92 mph fastball. Velocity-wise, the pitch average at best. But his delivery hides the ball well, and because of its movement and deception, it earns above-average grades from some scouts. Small's delivery is long in the back, but he repeats it consistently. Much like Mariners' lefthander Yusei Kikuchi, Small will vary the amount of time he hangs on the rubber before exploding toward home plate, which also messes with hitters' timing. At times, Small can dominate college hitters pitching primarily off his fastball simply because he has plus command and plus control. Small fills the zone consistently, and he mixes in an average sluvy curveball as well. Small's changeup was a better pitch in 2018 than it has been in 2019, when it's been a fringe-average offering in most outings. There is reason to believe it can improve, however, since he's shown more conviction and feel for the pitch in the past. Small doesn't have a true plus pitch and projects as a No. 5 starter, but his command, control and consistency will likely push him into the second or third round.

• February, 2023 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 40/High
  
  Track Record: After having Tommy John surgery in college, Small returned to Mississippi State as a redshirt junior in 2019 to lead the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts and rank second in ERA. The Brewers' first-round pick at No. 28 overall that year, Small reached Triple-A in 2021, but his stock has dropped since then. He started 2022 with an ERA of 0.77 through five April starts and made a pair of major league appearances in May and July, but from June on he had a 6.82 ERA as he struggled with walks and moved to the bullpen at the end of the year.
  
  Scouting Report: Small pitches at 89-92 mph and can reach back for 95. It's not big velocity, but when Small is at his best, he's able to keep hitters off balance by liberally mixing his plus changeup. He sells his changeup like a fastball out of his hand, then it tumbles underneath bats to rack up whiffs with lots of separation off his fastball at 78-81 mph. Finding a reliable breaking ball has been a focal point for Small, who has made some progress with a slider, though it's still a below-average pitch. Small drew praise for his pitchability coming out of college, but he got into trouble last year because his control escaped him. He walked 13% of hitters in Triple-A, and especially struggled to land his offspeed stuff in the zone. That allowed opponents to get ahead in the count and tee off on a hittable fastball.
  
  The Future: Entering his age-26 season, Small will need to improve his control to carve out a big league role, which is looking more likely to be in relief. He probably opens 2023 back in Triple-A.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 40. Slider: 40. Changeup: 60. Control: 40.
• December, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 40/High
  
  Track Record: After having Tommy John surgery in college, Small returned to Mississippi State as a redshirt junior in 2019 to lead the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts and rank second in ERA. The Brewers' first-round pick at No. 28 overall that year, Small reached Triple-A in 2021, but his stock has dropped since then. He started 2022 with an ERA of 0.77 through five April starts and made a pair of major league appearances in May and July, but from June on he had a 6.82 ERA as he struggled with walks and moved to the bullpen at the end of the year.
  
  Scouting Report: Small pitches at 89-92 mph and can reach back for 95. It's not big velocity, but when Small is at his best, he's able to keep hitters off balance by liberally mixing his plus changeup. He sells his changeup like a fastball out of his hand, then it tumbles underneath bats to rack up whiffs with lots of separation off his fastball at 78-81 mph. Finding a reliable breaking ball has been a focal point for Small, who has made some progress with a slider, though it's still a below-average pitch. Small drew praise for his pitchability coming out of college, but he got into trouble last year because his control escaped him. He walked 13% of hitters in Triple-A, and especially struggled to land his offspeed stuff in the zone. That allowed opponents to get ahead in the count and tee off on a hittable fastball.
  
  The Future: Entering his age-26 season, Small will need to improve his control to carve out a big league role, which is looking more likely to be in relief. He probably opens 2023 back in Triple-A.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 40. Slider: 40. Changeup: 60. Control: 40.
• April, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade: 45/High
  
  Track Record: Small had Tommy John surgery at Mississippi State but returned to rank second in the Southeastern Conference in ERA and first in strikeouts in 2019 as a redshirt junior. The Brewers drafted him 28th overall and signed him for $1.8 million. Small made his full-season debut in 2021 and raced to Triple-A while posting a 1.98 ERA across 18 starts. He missed most of July and August with a strained tendon in his left middle finger, but made up the lost innings in winter ball pitching for Escogido in the Dominican League.
  
  Scouting Report: Small won&#39t overpower anyone, but he keeps hitters off balance. His high-spin fastball sits at 89-93 mph and his best pitch is his plus changeup, which he disguises to look like a fastball out of his hand before it parachutes underneath bats. Small is a competitive pitcher who leans heavily on his changeup and doesn&#39t use his breaking stuff much, with a curveball and slider that are both fringe-average at times. Small will vary his leg lifts and the tempo of his delivery to try to disrupt the hitter&#39s timing. Small was known for his polish and strike-throwing at Mississippi State, but his control regressed in 2021, with an overly-high 13% walk rate.
  
  The Future: Small has a chance to develop into a solid back-end starter if he can find a breaking ball and rediscover his previous control. He should make his major league debut in 2021, possibly as a reliever given the Brewers&#39 current rotation.
• December, 2021 Scouting Report
  Track Record: Small had Tommy John surgery at Mississippi State but returned to rank second in the Southeastern Conference in ERA and first in strikeouts in 2019 as a redshirt junior. The Brewers drafted him 28th overall and signed him for $1.8 million. Small made his full-season debut in 2021 and raced to Triple-A while posting a 1.98 ERA across 18 starts. He missed most of July and August with a strained tendon in his left middle finger, but made up the lost innings in winter ball pitching for Escogido in the Dominican League.
  
  Scouting Report: Small won’t overpower anyone, but he keeps hitters off balance. His high-spin fastball sits at 89-93 and his best pitch is his plus changeup, which he disguises to look like a fastball out of his hand before it parachutes underneath bats. Small is a competitive pitcher who leans heavily on his changeup and doesn’t use his breaking stuff much, with a curveball and slider that are both fringe-average at times. Small will vary his leg lifts and the tempo of his delivery to try to disrupt the hitter’s timing. Small was known for his polish and strike-throwing at Mississippi State, but his control regressed in 2021 with an overly-high 13% walk rate.
  
  The Future: Small has a chance to develop into a solid back-end starter if he can find a breaking ball and rediscover his previous control. He should make his major league debut in 2021, possibly as a reliever given the Brewers’ current rotation.
  
• July, 2021 Scouting Report
  Fastball: 50. Slider: 45. Changeup: 55. Curveball: 45. Control: 60.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Small had Tommy John surgery at Mississippi State but bounced back to lead the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts and rank second in ERA as a redshirt junior in 2019. The performance vaulted him into the first round, where the Brewers drafted him 28th overall and signed him for $1.8 million. Small breezed through five starts at low Class A Wisconsin and spent 2020 at the Brewers' alternate training site in Appleton, Wis.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Small relies on his polish, deception and pitchability. His fastball sits at 89-93 mph and touches 94. It plays up with riding life and is aided by his ability to throw it for strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone. Small hides the ball and messes with hitters' timing by varying his leg lift and tempo in his delivery. His slightly above-average changeup is his best offspeed weapon and plays well off his fastball to generate empty swings or weak contact. Small throws a curveball and added a slider to his mix in 2020, but sharpening his breaking stuff is a focal point. Neither one is average, though his feel for pitching is so good he probably won't be tested until he gets to Double-A.
  
  THE FUTURE: Small's polish is evident. He projects as a starter who fits toward the back of a rotation.
• March, 2021 Scouting Report
  Fastball: 50. Slider: 45. Changeup: 55. Curveball: 45. Control: 60.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Small had Tommy John surgery at Mississippi State but bounced back to lead the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts and rank second in ERA as a redshirt junior in 2019. The performance vaulted him into the first round, where the Brewers drafted him 28th overall and signed him for $1.8 million. Small breezed through five starts at low Class A Wisconsin and spent 2020 at the Brewers’ alternate training site in Appleton, Wis.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Small relies on his polish, deception and pitchability. His fastball sits at 89-93 mph and touches 94. It plays up with riding life and is aided by his ability to throw it for strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone. Small hides the ball and messes with hitters’ timing by varying his leg lift and tempo in his delivery. His slightly above-average changeup is his best offspeed weapon and plays well off his fastball to generate empty swings or weak contact. Small throws a curveball and added a slider to his mix in 2020, but sharpening his breaking stuff is a focal point. Neither one is average, though his feel for pitching is so good he probably won’t be tested until he gets to Double-A.
  
  THE FUTURE: Small’s polish is evident. He projects as a starter who fits toward the back of a rotation.
• December, 2020 Scouting Report
  Fastball: 50. Slider: 45. Changeup: 55. Curveball: 45. Control: 60.
  
  TRACK RECORD: Small had Tommy John surgery at Mississippi State but bounced back to lead the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts and rank second in ERA as a redshirt junior in 2019. The performance vaulted him into the first round, where the Brewers drafted him 28th overall and signed him for $1.8 million. Small breezed through five starts at low Class A Wisconsin and spent 2020 at the Brewers’ alternate training site in Appleton, Wis.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Small relies on his polish, deception and pitchability. His fastball sits at 89-93 mph and touches 94. It plays up with riding life and is aided by his ability to throw it for strikes to all quadrants of the strike zone. Small hides the ball and messes with hitters’ timing by varying his leg lift and tempo in his delivery. His slightly above-average changeup is his best offspeed weapon and plays well off his fastball to generate empty swings or weak contact. Small throws a curveball and added a slider to his mix in 2020, but sharpening his breaking stuff is a focal point. Neither one is average, though his feel for pitching is so good he probably won’t be tested until he gets to Double-A.
  
  THE FUTURE: Small’s polish is evident. He projects as a starter who fits toward the back of a rotation.
• July, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Small improved his draft stock markedly with a huge junior season at Mississippi State. He led the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts (176), finished second in ERA (1.93) and ranked third in both innings (107) and opponent average (.164). Instead of going in the third to fifth rounds as expected, Small went 28th overall to the Brewers and signed for $1.8 million after leading the Bulldogs to the College World Series.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Small compiles huge strikeout numbers by getting great extension with his long arms and using a deceptive delivery. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did prior to Tommy John surgery in 2017 and sits mostly in the 89-92 mph range, but his advanced command, extension and deception make it appear much harder. He has also learned to vary the tempo of his delivery, adding some pauses with a bit of crossfire action. Small’s above-average curveball is more of a “slurve” that generates swings and misses from lefthanded hitters, while his fringe-average changeup plays up with his deceiving arm action and late fade to neutralize righthanded hitters.
  
  THE FUTURE: With no real plus pitch, Small profiles as more of a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he also has an advanced feel for pitching and has proven to be an overachiever. He will open 2020 at high Class A Carolina.
• February, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Small improved his draft stock markedly with a huge junior season at Mississippi State. He led the Southeastern Conference in strikeouts (176), finished second in ERA (1.93) and ranked third in both innings (107) and opponent average (.164). Instead of going in the third to fifth rounds as expected, Small went 28th overall to the Brewers and signed for $1.8 million after leading the Bulldogs to the College World Series.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Small compiles huge strikeout numbers by getting great extension with his long arms and using a deceptive delivery. He doesn't throw as hard as he did prior to Tommy John surgery in 2017 and sits mostly in the 89-92 mph range, but his advanced command, extension and deception make it appear much harder. He has also learned to vary the tempo of his delivery, adding some pauses with a bit of crossfire action. Small's above-average curveball is more of a “slurve” that generates swings and misses from lefthanded hitters, while his fringe-average changeup plays up with his deceiving arm action and late fade to neutralize righthanded hitters.
  
  THE FUTURE: With no real plus pitch, Small profiles as more of a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he also has an advanced feel for pitching and has proven to be an overachiever. He will open 2020 at high Class A Carolina.
• December, 2018 Scouting Report
  Small's 2019 season was an excellent demonstration of how a pitcher can dramatically improve his draft stock by simply excelling week after week. When the season began, Small was seen as a potential fourth- to fifth-round pick as a durable and successful Southeastern Conference Friday starter with average stuff. The assessment of his pure stuff hasn't changed all that much, but his control and command has ticked up and no one can deny the extremely impressive results. Small was second in Division I in strikeout rate (15 K/9) as of early May. A 26th-round pick of the D-Backs last year as a redshirt sophomore, Small has bounced back well from the Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss the entire 2017 season. This season, opposing hitters have struggled to see and connect with his 89-92 mph fastball. Velocity-wise, the pitch average at best. But his delivery hides the ball well, and because of its movement and deception, it earns above-average grades from some scouts. Small's delivery is long in the back, but he repeats it consistently. Much like Mariners' lefthander Yusei Kikuchi, Small will vary the amount of time he hangs on the rubber before exploding toward home plate, which also messes with hitters' timing. At times, Small can dominate college hitters pitching primarily off his fastball simply because he has plus command and plus control. Small fills the zone consistently, and he mixes in an average sluvy curveball as well. Small's changeup was a better pitch in 2018 than it has been in 2019, when it's been a fringe-average offering in most outings. There is reason to believe it can improve, however, since he's shown more conviction and feel for the pitch in the past. Small doesn't have a true plus pitch and projects as a No. 5 starter, but his command, control and consistency will likely push him into the second or third round.