Caleb Kilian

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Chicago Cubs #26 prospect in 2024
  BA Grade: 40/Medium
  
  Track Record: Kilian pitched Texas Tech to back-to-back College World Series and was drafted in the eighth round by the Giants in 2019. The Cubs acquired him with outfielder Alexander Canario for Kris Bryant at the 2021 trade deadline. Kilian soared through the Cubs system and made his major league debut in 2022, but he’s regressed since. He scuffled at Triple-A Iowa for a second straight year in 2023 and was hammered in his return to the majors, where he allowed 13 hits and 10 runs in 5.1 innings.
  
  Scouting Report: Kilian is a physical, 6-foot-4 righthander with power stuff. He mixes a 94-97 mph four-seam fastball, 93-96 mph sinker and 90-92 mph cut fastball to keep opponents off-balance and guessing which way the ball will go out of his hand. Kilian mostly throws different variations of his fastball, but he also has an above-average 80-83 mph curveball with plus depth that draws swings and misses. His 85-88 mph changeup is a well below-average pitch he rarely throws, which has left him vulnerable against lefties (.389, 1.005 OPS) in the majors. Kilian relies on commanding his fastballs and moving them around the strike zone, but he’s lost confidence during his struggles and no longer trusts his stuff.
  
  The Future: Kilian flashes the stuff to be a back-end starter, but he has to overcome his mental hurdles. He’ll try to get back to the majors in 2024.
  
  Scouting Grades Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 30 | Control: 45
• 
  Ranked Chicago Cubs #10 prospect in 2023
  BA Grade/Risk: 45/Medium
  
  Track Record: Kilian led Texas Tech to consecutive College World Series as an anchor of its rotation and was drafted by the Giants in the eighth round in 2019. He emerged from the coronavirus shutdown stronger and throwing harder, leading to a breakout campaign in 2021. The Cubs acquired him with outfielder Alexander Canario for Kris Bryant at the trade deadline that year. Kilian started hot at Triple-A Iowa in 2022 and quickly rose to the majors for his big league debut, but his command evaporated in the majors and he got rocked for 13 earned runs in 11.1 innings. He continued to struggle throwing strikes after he returned to the minors and finished the year with a career-worst 4.22 ERA and 5.0 walks per nine innings.
  
  Scouting Report: Kilian is a physical, 6-foot-4 righthander with plenty of stuff. His above-average fastball sits 94-96 mph and he can manipulate it to give it cut, ride or sink. Kilian's 75-78 mph curveball with good depth is another above-average offering, and he'll mix in an average, upper-80s cutter that gets hitters to chase. His mid-80s changeup is below-average and rarely used. Kilian previously moved the ball around the strike zone with plus control, but he lost it in the majors and struggled to regain it in the minors. He no longer uses his lower half efficiently in his delivery and struggles to repeat his mechanics, leading to fringy control and a lack of quality strikes. Cubs officials identified the problem with his lower half and believe they can fix it, but acknowledge they have concerns.
  
  The Future: Kilian has the stuff to be a No. 4 starter, but he has to rediscover his previous form. Doing so will be his main focus in 2023.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Curveball: 55. Cutter: 50. Changeup: 40. Control: 45
• 
  Ranked Chicago Cubs #7 prospect in 2022
  Track Record: Kilian led Texas Tech to back-to-back College World Series appearances as a member of the Red Raiders starting rotation and finished third in school history with 23 career wins. The Giants drafted him in the eighth round in 2019 and signed him for $397,500. Kilian impressed in his pro debut after signing and, after missing the 2020 season due to the coronavirus pandemic, rose to Double-A in a breakout 2021 campaign. The Cubs acquired him with outfielder Alexander Canario at the trade deadline for Kris Bryant, and Kilian continued his ascent with a star turn in the Arizona Fall League after the season.
  
  Scouting Report: Kilian previously succeeded with average stuff and plus control, but his stuff has ticked up to enhance his future outlook. His fastball now sits 91-94 mph and touches 97-98 mph. He has maintained his advanced feel for pitching through his velocity bump and manipulates his fastball to alternately give it cut, sink or ride depending on the hitter. Kilian primarily succeeds throwing different varieties of his fastball, but his curveball has improved to flash plus with good depth and he can mix in both an average cutter and changeup. Kilian locates his fastball on both edges of the plate and fills up the strike zone with all four of his pitches. He has a good feel for changing speeds and moving the ball around the strike zone.
  
  The Future: Kilian’s newfound velocity and advanced feel for pitching gives him a chance to be a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. He is in position to make his major league debut in 2022.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #281 prospect in 2019 draft
  Kilian was a 20th round pick of the Orioles in 2018 as a draft-eligible sophomore after a strong season where he earned a spot in an injury-plagued Texas Tech rotation by necessity and quickly proved he belonged. A year later, he's much of the same player. He is a sum-of-the-parts pitcher with solid but unspectacular stuff that works because of location and feel. His low-90s fastball, curveball and changeup are all average pitches, with the curveball playing up a tick because of his ability to locate it. Kilian was 8-3, 3.89 with 7.7 strikeouts per nine and 2.0 walks per nine.
• Ranked #299 prospect in 2018 draft
  Kilian is a draft-eligible sophomore who moved into the Red Raiders rotation midway through the season and proved to be a revelation. He was 8-1, 2.30 with 22 walks and 53 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. Kilian's stuff is as good as anyone on the Texas Tech's roster. His fastball sits in the low-90s and has touched 95. His changeup and curveball are both potentially average offerings. He commands the curveball very well, but it's not a true swing-and-miss pitch, which is the knock on Kilian. He doesn't have a plus pitch that scouts project as a weapon in pro ball, so he'll have to either add some life to his fastball or refine his breaking ball.

• February, 2023 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 45/Medium
  
  Track Record: Kilian led Texas Tech to consecutive College World Series as an anchor of its rotation and was drafted by the Giants in the eighth round in 2019. He emerged from the coronavirus shutdown stronger and throwing harder, leading to a breakout campaign in 2021. The Cubs acquired him with outfielder Alexander Canario for Kris Bryant at the trade deadline that year. Kilian started hot at Triple-A Iowa in 2022 and quickly rose to the majors for his big league debut, but his command evaporated in the majors and he got rocked for 13 earned runs in 11.1 innings. He continued to struggle throwing strikes after he returned to the minors and finished the year with a career-worst 4.22 ERA and 5.0 walks per nine innings.
  
  Scouting Report: Kilian is a physical, 6-foot-4 righthander with plenty of stuff. His above-average fastball sits 94-96 mph and he can manipulate it to give it cut, ride or sink. Kilian's 75-78 mph curveball with good depth is another above-average offering, and he'll mix in an average, upper-80s cutter that gets hitters to chase. His mid-80s changeup is below-average and rarely used. Kilian previously moved the ball around the strike zone with plus control, but he lost it in the majors and struggled to regain it in the minors. He no longer uses his lower half efficiently in his delivery and struggles to repeat his mechanics, leading to fringy control and a lack of quality strikes. Cubs officials identified the problem with his lower half and believe they can fix it, but acknowledge they have concerns.
  
  The Future: Kilian has the stuff to be a No. 4 starter, but he has to rediscover his previous form. Doing so will be his main focus in 2023.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Curveball: 55. Cutter: 50. Changeup: 40. Control: 45
• December, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade/Risk: 45/Medium
  
  Track Record: Kilian led Texas Tech to consecutive College World Series as an anchor of its rotation and was drafted by the Giants in the eighth round in 2019. He emerged from the coronavirus shutdown stronger and throwing harder, leading to a breakout campaign in 2021. The Cubs acquired him with outfielder Alexander Canario for Kris Bryant at the trade deadline that year. Kilian started hot at Triple-A Iowa in 2022 and quickly rose to the majors for his big league debut, but his command evaporated in the majors and he got rocked for 13 earned runs in 11.1 innings. He continued to struggle throwing strikes after he returned to the minors and finished the year with a career-worst 4.22 ERA and 5.0 walks per nine innings.
  
  Scouting Report: Kilian is a physical, 6-foot-4 righthander with plenty of stuff. His above-average fastball sits 94-96 mph and he can manipulate it to give it cut, ride or sink. Kilian's 75-78 mph curveball with good depth is another above-average offering, and he'll mix in an average, upper-80s cutter that gets hitters to chase. His mid-80s changeup is below-average and rarely used. Kilian previously moved the ball around the strike zone with plus control, but he lost it in the majors and struggled to regain it in the minors. He no longer uses his lower half efficiently in his delivery and struggles to repeat his mechanics, leading to fringy control and a lack of quality strikes. Cubs officials identified the problem with his lower half and believe they can fix it, but acknowledge they have concerns.
  
  The Future: Kilian has the stuff to be a No. 4 starter, but he has to rediscover his previous form. Doing so will be his main focus in 2023.
  
  Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55. Curveball: 55. Cutter: 50. Changeup: 40. Control: 45
• April, 2022 Scouting Report
  BA Grade: 50/Medium
  
  Track Record: Kilian led Texas Tech to back-to-back College World Series appearances as a member of the Red Raiders starting rotation and finished third in school history with 23 career wins. The Giants drafted him in the eighth round in 2019 and signed him for $397,500. Kilian impressed in his pro debut after signing and, after missing the 2020 season due to the coronavirus pandemic, rose to Double-A in a breakout 2021 campaign. The Cubs acquired him with outfielder Alexander Canario at the trade deadline for Kris Bryant, and Kilian continued his ascent with a star turn in the Arizona Fall League after the season.
  
  Scouting Report: Kilian previously succeeded with average stuff and plus control, but his stuff has ticked up to enhance his future outlook. His fastball now sits 91-94 mph and touches 97-98 mph. He has maintained his advanced feel for pitching through his velocity bump and manipulates his fastball to alternately give it cut, sink or ride or depending on the hitter. Kilian primarily succeeds throwing different varieties of his fastball, but his curveball has improved to flash plus with good depth and he can mix in both an average cutter and changeup. Kilian locates his fastball on both edges of the plate and fills up the strike zone with all four of his pitches. He has a good feel for changing speeds and moving the ball around the strike zone.
  
  The Future: Kilian&#39s newfound velocity and advanced feel for pitching gives him a chance to be a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. He is in position to make his major league debut in 2022.
  
  Scouting Grades Fastball: 55. Curveball: 55. Cutter: 50. Changeup: 50. Control: 60.
• December, 2021 Scouting Report
  Track Record: Kilian led Texas Tech to back-to-back College World Series appearances as a member of the Red Raiders starting rotation and finished third in school history with 23 career wins. The Giants drafted him in the eighth round in 2019 and signed him for $397,500. Kilian impressed in his pro debut after signing and, after missing the 2020 season due to the coronavirus pandemic, rose to Double-A in a breakout 2021 campaign. The Cubs acquired him with outfielder Alexander Canario at the trade deadline for Kris Bryant, and Kilian continued his ascent with a star turn in the Arizona Fall League after the season.
  
  Scouting Report: Kilian previously succeeded with average stuff and plus control, but his stuff has ticked up to enhance his future outlook. His fastball now sits 91-94 mph and touches 97-98 mph. He has maintained his advanced feel for pitching through his velocity bump and manipulates his fastball to alternately give it cut, sink or ride depending on the hitter. Kilian primarily succeeds throwing different varieties of his fastball, but his curveball has improved to flash plus with good depth and he can mix in both an average cutter and changeup. Kilian locates his fastball on both edges of the plate and fills up the strike zone with all four of his pitches. He has a good feel for changing speeds and moving the ball around the strike zone.
  
  The Future: Kilian’s newfound velocity and advanced feel for pitching gives him a chance to be a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. He is in position to make his major league debut in 2022.
• July, 2021 Scouting Report
  Kilian was one of the breakout performers in the Giants' system this year. He works with a lively 91-94 mph fastball and flashes a plus breaking ball, but he mostly pitches with average stuff and gets hitters out by spotting everything with above-average command. Rival evaluators aren't sure his mix will work as a starter in the major leagues, but he's slowly gaining believers.
• December, 2018 Scouting Report
  Kilian was a 20th round pick of the Orioles in 2018 as a draft-eligible sophomore after a strong season where he earned a spot in an injury-plagued Texas Tech rotation by necessity and quickly proved he belonged. A year later, he's much of the same player. He is a sum-of-the-parts pitcher with solid but unspectacular stuff that works because of location and feel. His low-90s fastball, curveball and changeup are all average pitches, with the curveball playing up a tick because of his ability to locate it. Kilian was 8-3, 3.89 with 7.7 strikeouts per nine and 2.0 walks per nine.
• December, 2017 Scouting Report
  Kilian is a draft-eligible sophomore who moved into the Red Raiders rotation midway through the season and proved to be a revelation. He was 8-1, 2.30 with 22 walks and 53 strikeouts in 58.2 innings. Kilian's stuff is as good as anyone on the Texas Tech's roster. His fastball sits in the low-90s and has touched 95. His changeup and curveball are both potentially average offerings. He commands the curveball very well, but it's not a true swing-and-miss pitch, which is the knock on Kilian. He doesn't have a plus pitch that scouts project as a weapon in pro ball, so he'll have to either add some life to his fastball or refine his breaking ball.