Drafted in the C round (32nd overall) by the Baltimore Orioles in 2000 (signed for $1,050,000).
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One of the few high school power bats in the draft after Texan Jason Stokes, Johnson has moved to the doorstep of the first round. None of his other tools is above-average, but he is athletic and has the skills to remain at third base. He has committed to Washington but is considered very signable. With a 54 (on a 20-80 scale), he is the Major League Scouting Bureau's highest-ranking Washington player.
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Johnson has moved slowly through the system since signing as a supplemental first-round pick in 2002. He has performed just well enough to tantalize the Orioles and even earned Carolina League all-star honors in 2004. But he followed that up with a disappointing stint in Double-A last year, and time may be running out on him. Defense was once the big question mark about Johnson's game, but that actually has become his strength. He has an average arm and moves well laterally. But Johnson hasn't been able to answer concerns about his bat, particularly regarding his power. Double-A pitchers exploited his long swing and his homer output dropped to 11 from 21 the year before, though he did produce 29 doubles. He performed a little bit better in the Arizona Fall League, batting .333 with two homers in 51 at-bats in a league tilted heavily toward offense, but he struggled against righthanders just as he did during the regular season. Johnson will go back to Double-A to try to prove himself again, and it may be his last chance.
After a steady progression through the organization, Johnson had a disappointing 2003 season that earned him a return to high Class A. He regrouped and was the Carolina League's all-star third baseman after hitting more homers (21) than he had in 1,247 career at-bats coming into the year (20). Johnson finally figured out he could produce power to all fields by taking balls where they're pitched rather than trying to pull everything. He handles the bat well and showed a good two-strike approach. His defense at third base also has improved significantly. He has an average arm and moves well laterally. Johnson answered the Orioles' two main concerns in 2004 by hitting to the opposite field with authority and improving his focus on defense. His swing can get a little long, and he still hasn't proven himself above Class A. While some teams tend to rush players, the Orioles may have moved Johnson too slowly, having him repeat Rookie ball as well as high Class A. If he can put up numbers in Double-A, he could reach Baltimore in short order.
Johnson had a storybook high school career in suburban Seattle. In addition to being a teammate of Rommie Lewis, he starred in basketball and football, winning The Seattle Times' male athlete of the year award in 2000. His pro career has proceeded more slowly, as he has moved a level at a time and hasn't had a breakout season yet. Johnson battled nagging back problems in 2003, which may have sapped his power. He has a potentially special bat and has improved his approach in the last couple of years, but he needs to hit the ball with authority more consistently. He has too many at-bats where he just puts the ball in play rather than driving it. Johnson also hasn't improved as much defensively as the Orioles had hoped. He'll have to work on his reactions as well as improving his quickness. Johnson could return to high Class A to open 2004 in hopes of getting him off to a hot start.
After a promising debut and a disappointing follow-up campaign, Johnson got back on track in his first taste of full-season ball. A teammate of Rommie Lewis at Newport High (the same school that also produced Todd Hollandsworth, Ron Romanick, Cliff Pastornicky and Mike Campbell), Johnson had a storybook prep career in baseball, basketball and football. The Seattle Times chose him as its 2000 male athlete of the year. Johnson is an all-around athlete who doesn't stand out in any one aspect but is solid in all areas. He showed a much better idea at the plate and made consistent, solid contact, again encouraging the Orioles that he can develop above-average power. The organization expects that many of the doubles he hit in 2002 can become home runs as he matures and compares him to Ken Caminiti. While Johnson showed enough improvement on defense to indicate he'll be able to stay at third base, he still needs to get better. He also must continue to develop his strike-zone judgment. Johnson is a quiet, steady player who goes about his business in a professional manner every day. He's not likely to draw the hype of other prospects but is as good a bet as any to make it to the big leagues. He'll move up to high Class A in 2003.
The Orioles were high on Johnson after he showed athleticism and power potential in his pro debut. He was a three-sport star in high school and viewed as a prototypical third baseman, so the organization expected him to get on the fast track. It didn't work out that way as Johnson didn't even make his full-season debut last year. He got off to a terrible start with the bat at Bluefield before missing three weeks with a shoulder injury. Limited to DH when he returned, Johnson did salvage something with a strong finish. He should be healthy for 2002. He's a gamer who should develop above-average power. Both his strike-zone judgment and his glove need work, and he didn't get to address the latter while he was hurt. If he can bounce back this season, the Orioles will write off 2001 as a lost season due to injury.
Regarded as the top draft prospect from the state of Washington in 2000, Johnson was one of the few legitimate high school power hitters available. He showed good athleticism in his professional debut--he also excelled in football and basketball in high school--and the Orioles see him as a prototypical third baseman. He's built like Ken Caminiti and looks like he was a college player instead of a high schooler. Johnson is a gamer, a quiet grinder who comes to the park and goes about his business every day. On offense he coves the plate well and has a good idea of the strike zone, and he'll hit for power. He should develop into an average defensive player, but that will require work. It was the focus of his time in instructional league, where he worked on getting his glove in better fielding position and improving the accuracy of his throws. His bat always will be ahead of his glove. He'll try to make the jump to full-season ball this year at Delmarva.
Minor League Top Prospects
Johnson, a supplemental first-round pick in June, went about his job in a controlled, businesslike manner.
"He has very quiet hands and was very quiet in the box," Newman said. "I didn't see a lot of power or strength, but he will always hit. He's a natural hitter."
Johnson needs work on his defense, but Alfaro believes he will be a solid third baseman in a year or two. "He has a solid average arm," Alfaro said, "but he just needs to learn how to use it."
Scouting Reports
Johnson, a supplemental first-round pick in June, went about his job in a controlled, businesslike manner.
"He has very quiet hands and was very quiet in the box," Newman said. "I didn't see a lot of power or strength, but he will always hit. He's a natural hitter."
Johnson needs work on his defense, but Alfaro believes he will be a solid third baseman in a year or two. "He has a solid average arm," Alfaro said, "but he just needs to learn how to use it."
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