Xavier Paul Stats & Scouting Report

AB	693
AVG	.25
OBP	.311
SLG	.368
HR	12

Full name Xavier Brooks Paul
Born 02/25/1985 in Slidell, LA
Profile Ht.: 6'0" / Wt.: 205 / Bats: L / Throws: R
School Slidell
Debut 05/07/2009
Drafted in the 4th round (121st overall) by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2003 (signed for $270,000).

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Paul would have been an early-round pick as a high school sophomore in 2001, and being under the microscope for that long has diminished him in the eyes of scouts. He hasn't grown bigger than 5-foot-9 and he didn't run well this spring, and while he's a polished two-way player he's not appreciably better than he was two years ago. Paul has been throwing in the low 90s since he was a freshman, but he'll be an outfielder as a pro. He's a gifted hitter with a quick bat and some juice in his 195-pound frame. He has the instincts but maybe not the speed for center field, and he's more likely to play in right. Paul is now more of a third-round choice than the first-rounder he figured to develop into, and that might not be enough to sign him away from Tulane.

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Paul appeared to have a golden opportunity last May 7 when Major League Baseball suspended Manny Ramirez for 50 games for using a performance-enhancing drug. Recalled from Triple-A, he never got a chance to play regularly in left field because he developed a staph infection in his right knee that forced him to the disabled list. Once he recovered from the infection, he began feeling pain in his left ankle and was found to have microfractures that kept him on the DL for the remainder of the season. Paul has plenty of raw talent but never has quite refined it during his seven pro seasons. He has a nice line-drive stroke, yet his free-swinging ways result in high strikeout totals without enough home run power to compensate. He has plus speed but his lack of baserunning savvy keeps him from stealing more bases. Paul is a good defensive outfielder with the range to play center field and the arm to play right. He'll return to Triple-A to being this season, as the Dodgers' outfield is set after Ramirez exercised the player option in his contract.
The youngest player in the Dodgers' big league camp last spring, Paul hit .347 in Triple-A after the all-star break and up having his best season since his 2003 pro debut. He was a high school infielder and pitcher but was moved to the outfield as a pro and to center field in 2007. Built like Jay Payton, Paul's defense in center has improved, although he still rates mediocre overall with a plus arm. Because he won't hit enough to play a corner, unless Paul's defense in center improves, he projects as a fourth outfielder and role player. Paul has some strength and can drive the ball from gap to gap, resulting in a solid-average hit tool. Although Paul shows above-average speed in the field, he needs to improve his basestealing, running more often and with a better success rate. He was gaining needed experience facing plenty of breaking stuff in the Mexican Pacific League, where he ranked among league leaders in batting and runs scored. While Paul is on the 40-man roster, he's ticketed to return to the Pacific Coast League thanks to Los Angeles' glut of outfielders.
Part of Los Angeles' banner draft class of 2003 that included Chad Billingsley, Matt Kemp and Andy LaRoche, Paul hasn't moved as quickly as that trio, but he has made strides in his development the last two seasons. He moved to Double-A last season and played his way onto the 40-man roster. He has above-average bat speed and average power with a line-drive swing that's conducive to hard contact. He'll pepper both alleys with line drives, though he drives the ball best to his pull side. His strike-zone discipline is below-average, and a proclivity to swing and miss figures to prevent him from batting atop a lineup. He's an above-average runner who has worked diligently on his defense. He can handle all three outfield positions, but his speed and plus arm profile best in right field. Paul was considered a five-tool talent as an amateur, but his hit and power tools have been the slowest to show up in game action. At the least, he'll have value as an extra outfielder who can steal a base and deliver some power off the bench. He'll keep working on his approach in Triple-A this season.
Because of his size and commitment to Tulane, most teams passed on Paul during the draft, but area scout Clarence Johns (now with the Rockies) had a good rapport with Paul and his family and signed him for $270,000. He ranked among the system's top prospects following a strong debut but sustained success for the first time since then in his second season at high Class A. Paul is a plus runner with athleticism and bat speed. He's constantly tinkering with his approach at the plate and doesn't trust his hands. He can lash line drives to both alleys with average power, especially to the pull side. While his 133 strikeouts in 2006 were the most in the organization--and his career--he hit the ball with more authority. His front side often flies open, causing him to pull off the ball and making him vulnerable to pitches on the outer half. Paul has played all three outfield positions, but his best position is right. He made significant improvement last season defensively and has developed into an average defender with a plus, accurate arm. He needs to improve his technique playing balls hit in front of him. Paul must improve his overall consistency and ultimately could become a reliable outfielder with speed and pop. He'll climb to Double-A in 2007.
Scouts who evaluated Paul as an amateur might not recognize him if they watched him now. He has changed his set-up at the plate, raising his back elbow and closing his stance. His swing has lengthened, sapping his pop and ability to pull the ball. He missed most of last April with a leg injury, then got off to a 2-for-24 start and never got untracked, making for his second straight lackluster season. Paul's pitch recognition is poor and he presses at the plate. He also struggled mightily against lefthanders, going 9-for-67 (.134), prompting him to experiment with switch-hitting in instructional league. He has been slow to grasp the nuances of outfield defense as well, though some scouts still believe he has a chance to become an above-average outfielder in time. He has two plus tools, his arm and speed. Otherwise, Paul's sound athleticism has not yet translated into on-field ability. He made progress in instructional league and will return to high Class A this year. His brother Matt, also an outfielder, played briefly with him there last July.
Most scouts expected Paul to honor his commitment to Tulane after joining Chad Billingsley as a Baseball America second-team High School All-American in 2003, but he signed with the Dodgers for $270,000 instead. The Dodgers drafted his brother Matthew in the 18th round last year out of Southern University. Paul earned a spot in the organization's top 10 after his encouraging debut, then came out of the gates with a .361-3-20 start last April before struggling the rest of the way. He tweaked his hitting mechanics during the year, reducing his stride, but seems most comfortable with a full stride at the plate. He generates good power from his strong, compact body and quick wrists. Paul is patient to a fault at the plate. He often found himself behind in counts as he waited for his pitch, but too frequently failed to make contact in two-strike counts. He is adequate at best in the outfield. He is an above-average runner with well-above-average arm strength, but doesn't make good reads and needs to improve his routes. He could repeat low Class A in 2005 depending on his showing this spring, but should see time at high Class A sometime during the season.
Paul first attracted the attention of scouts as a high school sophomore. Most teams overlooked him in the 2003 draft because of his size and commitment to Tulane, but he shined for the Dodgers in a predraft workout in New Orleans. Area scout Clarence Johns did his homework on Paul's signability and Los Angeles got him for $270,000. Paul has a strong, compact body with a short swing and surprising raw power. He shows the discipline and plate awareness to hit at the top of the lineup. He already puts together the best combination of power and natural hitting ability in the organization. He hits the ball where it's pitched and uses the whole field. Paul is a plus runner once he gets going and has a plusplus arm in the outfield. He touched 94 mph as a prep pitcher. Paul needs to stay focused and improve his routes in the outfield. He'll increase his value if he can handle a move to center field in 2004. Never afraid to challenge their prospects, the Dodgers could jump Paul to high Class A this year. He's not a premium basestealing threat, but he profiles as a potent top-of-the-order hitter.

Minor League Top Prospects

Like Billingsley, Paul went from high school to Ogden without missing a beat. He displayed solid tools across the board while hitting for both power and average. Paul has advanced knowledge of the strike zone for an 18-year-old. Though he committed eight errors, he has the tools to be a good outfielder, with a solid-average arm and above-average speed. "He reminds me of Dave Roberts with the way he plays center field," Idaho Falls manager Carlos Lezcano said. "Offensively, I think he has a chance to be better than Roberts."