Drafted in the 1st round (32nd overall) by the Colorado Rockies in 2009 (signed for $900,000).
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Among California scouts, a "Sac State guy" is typically an undersized, modestly talented but scrappy and energetic player, short on tools but long on hustle. At showcase events, it's common to hear scouts use the term as a shorthand way of identifying such players. No Sac State player has ever been drafted above the fourth round, but Wheeler will smash all of those precedents and cliches. At 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds with a strong and athletic frame and lefthanded bat, he's a prototypical corner outfield prospect. His wiry build has room for further projection. Scouts suspected Wheeler was poised for a breakout after a strong summer in the Cape Cod League, but he has exceeded even those expectations, batting .396/.500/.786 with 18 homers and 69 RBIs. Wheeler's bat is by far his primary tool. He projects to be a plus big league hitter, with power that is a shade above-average. An average arm and speed that's just a tick above-average probably mean he's best suited for left field in pro ball. Scouts laud his baserunning instincts. Scouts who saw Wheeler last year, or even earlier this year, would not have pegged him as a first-round candidate, but as the season has progressed his bat has made the prospect more and more likely.
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Wheeler's power fell off drastically last season, from 33 home in Double-A in 2011 to two last season in Triple-A. He broke his right hamate bone eight games into the season and was understandably rusty when he returned in June, but he also hadn't hit for power in spring training when he was healthy. Wheeler went into last season wanting to hit lefthanders better and cut his strikeouts and succeeded on both counts. While it made him a better overall hitter, though, it short-circuited the power that is his only standout tool. He has a tendency to get bent over in his stance, which causes him to break down on his back side and get under the ball, rather than staying firm and tall and getting full extension in his swing to create backspin. He hits to all fields, especially up the middle. Wheeler projects as a corner outfielder, with average speed, but his arm limits him to left field. Wheeler is an intense player and a dedicated worker, so the Rockies expect him to make the adjustments to tap into his power again. They added him to the 40-man roster in November and will send him back to Triple-A, where he'll need to show more power to put himself in position for a promotion to the majors.
The final pick of 2009's first round, Wheeler signed for a below-slot $900,000 and didn't do much in his first two pro seasons. He surprised the Rockies by finishing second in the minors with 33 homers in 2011, the most by a Tulsa player since Irving Burns hit 36 in 1929. Wheeler hit his 29th homer on July 25 but pressed so much to get to 30 that he didn't reach the milestone until Aug. 24. Wheeler has very flexible, quick hips and generated more power by doing a better job of getting his hands out front to turn on pitches. He can get pull-happy, which was the case during his monthlong homer drought. He tends to drop his head at the plate, resulting in him missing hittable pitches and struggling against lefthanders. He may strike out too much to hit for a high average. Wheeler has solid speed and has played center field in the minors, but he profiles as a corner outfielder in the majors. He has enough arm for right field and should have average range once he refines his reads and routes. He has terrific makeup and runs out every ball. Wheeler will begin 2012 in Triple-A and could reach the majors later in the year. Some scouts see him as a 20-20 player, while others wonder if he'll be a platoon player because he hasn't hit lefties.
Wheeler was challenged in his first full pro season, skipping a level and going to high Class A. His production numbers weren't impressive, but the Rockies were encouraged as the season went along, and he got what he needed most: playing time. Wheeler was a pure pull hitter when the season started, trying to get to his plus raw power, but hitting coach Duane Espy worked to get him away from hanging over the plate and taught him to drive the ball to the bigger part of the ballpark, particularly against lefthanders. Wheeler's biggest challenge at the plate is learning to recognize breaking pitches from southpaws. He hit .206 with 43 strikeouts in 141 atbats against lefties at Modesto, compared to hitting .266 with 71 strikeouts in 369 at-bats against righthanders. Wheeler has a solid major league arm and could remain in center field, although given the wide-open spaces at Coors Field it is more likely he will wind up in a corner spot. With his solid-average arm, right field is a possibility. He does need to work on his first step and must streamline his routes. He's a plus runner who should continue to steal bases as he moves up the ladder. A willing worker who addresses his shortcomings, Wheeler most likely will move to Double-A for 2011.
Wheeler led the Cape Cod League with 15 steals in the summer of 2008, then set Sacramento State records for single-season (72) and career (142) RBIs while batting .385 last spring. One of the best all-around college players in the 2009 draft, he surprisingly lasted until the 32nd overall choice, which made him the highest pick in Hornets history. Signed for $900,000, he finished his pro debut on a 12-game hitting streak. Wheeler has solid tools across the board. With a pretty lefthanded swing and a strong, athletic build, he has the potential to hit for a high average with 20 or more homers per season. His slightly above-average speed and strong arm give him a chance to play center field. He has a good feel for the game, allowing his tools to play up. Wheeler fits better defensively in right field, and to play regularly on a corner he'll have to deliver on his power potential, which currently is more evident in batting practice than in games. He expanded his strike zone and got under balls rather than squaring them up in his pro debut. He can improve his reads and routes on fly balls. If Wheeler has a strong spring training, he could skip a level and head to high Class A. Brad Hawpe's contract expires after 2011, and Wheeler could be ready to take over in right field by then if needed.
Minor League Top Prospects
Wheeler hit for average in his first season and a half as a pro, but he didn't show the power the Rockies hoped for. That all changed this season, as Wheeler continued to produce for average (topping the TL with 161 hits) while leading the league with 33 homers and 67 extra-base hits as well. Wheeler is a well-rounded player who rates as at least average in all five tools. He has good bat speed and a smooth stroke, and he has strong hands and wrists that help him hit line drives out of the ballpark. He does have a tendency to swing and miss a lot, especially against offspeed stuff and lefthanders, who held him to a .236 average. Wheeler is a good runner who played center field all season in Tulsa, but he needs refinement to become a basestealer. Some see him as a potential 20/20 center fielder in the major leagues, while others wonder if he has a true plus tool and would fit better on a corner.
The 32nd overall pick in June, Wheeler's statistics weren't overly impressive, but he finished the season on a 12-game hitting streak that included three of his five homers. His offensive potential and all-around potential also couldn't be denied. An athletic 6-foot-4, 205-pounder, Wheeler hits from an upright stance. He has raw power, easily driving balls over the wall in batting practice and projects to hit .280-.300 with 15-20 homers annually. He got underneath a lot of balls with Tri-City, and the Rockies are trying to get him to take better advantage of his slightly above-average speed. Wheeler still has some work to do in the outfield. He ranges from side to side well and has good instincts going back on the ball, but his routes could be sharper and he has some trouble coming in on balls. If he doesn't stick in center field, his average arm probably will relegate him to left. "He's just a gamer," Tri-City manager Freddie Ocasio said. "He plays the game hard the whole time and that's a good thing to see, especially from a first-rounder."
Best Tools List
Rated Best Power Prospect in the Texas League in 2011
Rated Best Outfield Arm in the Colorado Rockies in 2011
Scouting Reports
Background: The final pick of 2009's first round, Wheeler signed for a below-slot $900,000 and didn't do much in his first two pro seasons. He surprised the Rockies by finishing second in the minors with 33 homers in 2011, the most by a Tulsa player since Irving Burns hit 36 in 1929. Wheeler hit his 29th homer on July 25 but pressed so much to get to 30 that he didn't reach the milestone until Aug. 24. Scouting Report: Wheeler has very flexible, quick hips and generated more power by doing a better job of getting his hands out front to turn on pitches. He can get pull-happy, which was the case between his monthlong homer drought. He tends to drop his head at the plate, resulting in him missing hittable pitches and struggling against lefthanders. He may strike out too much to hit for a high average. Wheeler has solid speed and has played center field in the minors, but he profiles as a corner outfielder in the majors. He has enough arm for right field and should have average range once he refines his reads and routes. He has terrific makeup and runs out ever ball. The Future: Wheeler will begin 2012 in Triple-A and could reach the majors later in the year. Some scouts see him as a 20-20 player, while others wonder if he'll be a platoon player because he hasn't hit lefties.
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