Paul Estrada

Organization Prospect Rankings

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  Ranked Houston Astros #16 prospect in 2008
  In a season of disappointments for the Astros, Estrada was the biggest downer in the farm system. He pitched spectacularly in 2006, nearly leading the Texas League in strikeouts while pitching out of the bullpen. He topped all minor league relievers by averaging 13.6 whiffs per nine innings and looked like he should have been pitching in Houston. Hitters had little clue how they were supposed to handle a downer curveball that looks like a hard knuckler, a sick 83-86 mph splitter or a 92-94 mph fastball with sink and armside run. If there was a knock on Estrada, it was that he could fall deeply in love with his curve and splitter. The Astros forced him to use his fastball more in 2007, and the net effect was disastrous. He maintained his 92-94 mph velocity, but his long arm action creates little deception or movement on his heater. When it got hit, he became more tentative throwing his fastball over the plate, and his control deteriorated. His splitter was still good but his curve was much more hittable. Estrada didn't exhibit much poise while getting pounded, and he let an already less-than-ideal body get softer. Estrada clearly needs to pitch backward to succeed, and he'll try to pick up the pieces in 2008.
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  Ranked Houston Astros #7 prospect in 2007
  After Estrada didn't get to low Class A until his sixth pro season, the Astros decided to skip him a level to Double-A in 2006. He responded by nearly leading the Texas League in strikeouts while working out of the bullpen. He led minor league relievers by averaging 13.6 whiffs per nine innings. Estrada has one of the minors' best curveballs, as his looks like a power knuckler before breaking straight down. He also can get strikeouts with his 83-86 mph splitter, and he achieves a lot of sink and armside run with his 92-94 mph fastball. With so much to worry about, hitters take a lot of ugly swings against him. A lot of Estrada's strikeouts come on curveballs out of the zone and splitters in the dirt, and that approach might not work as well against more discerning hitters. Houston has to keep leaning on him to throw his fastball. His stuff isn't as sharp when he pitches on consecutive days. Texas League observers were convinced Estrada could have helped the Astros as a set-up man at the end of last season. They'll be more conservative and start him in Triple-A this year, though he should be one of their first in-season callups.
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  Ranked Houston Astros #24 prospect in 2006
  Like most of the Venezuelan power pitchers in the system, Estrada has developed at a slow pace. He spent four years in Rookie ball and another at short-season Tri-City before finally advancing to low Class A in 2005. He's still raw and has been used mainly in relief, but on the right night Estrada can show two pitches that grade out as 70s on the 20-80 scouting scale. He can run his fastball up to 95 mph and also flash a knee-buckling curveball. He usually pitches at 92-94 mph with his four-seam fastball, and at 88-90 mph with some sink on his two-seamer. His curve isn't consistently dominating, and he's still searching for a dependable third pitch. He never showed any feel for a changeup, so he switched to a splitter last year and the pitch has good tumble. Estrada's control still needs some work, but he's no longer walking a batter an inning, as he did in his first two U.S. seasons. He sometimes rushes his delivery and leaves pitches up in the zone. He's durable enough to start if he fleshes out his repertoire, and he may pitch out of the rotation this year in high Class A.