Drafted in the C-1 round (48th overall) by the Baltimore Orioles in 2005 (signed for $650,000).
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Olson positioned himself as a premium draft pick with a sparkling summer in the Alaska League last year, following in the footsteps of first-rounders Jeff Francis (Rockies, 2002) and David Purcey (Blue Jays, 2004), and projected 2005 first-rounder Mike Pelfrey as the league's No. 1 prospect. Olson went 7-0, 0.88 for the Anchorage Bucs, striking out 53 in 51 innings and walking just eight. He did not allow a home run and then worked 16 more scoreless innings at the National Baseball Congress World Series in Wichita. His breakthrough continued this season as he went 10-4, 2.69 with 116 strikeouts in 120 innings at Cal Poly. He has a feel for three pitches: an 88-90 mph fastball, a 12-to-6 hammer curveball and a changeup that he has worked hard to refine. He now ranks as the third-best lefthander in California, behind fellow Big West Conference southpaws Cesar Ramos (Long Beach State) and Ricky Romero (Cal State Fullerton). A mechanical engineering major at Cal Poly, Olson has designs on joining the FBI if a career in professional baseball doesn't pan out.
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Olson continued his mastery of minor league hitters in 2007, but his first major league experience was considerably less impressive. He made his major league debut in July and held his own in two spot starts, but he got knocked around when he came up for good in August. Orioles officials said it was a simple function of getting behind hitters in the big leagues. Olson is intelligent and has confidence in every facet of his game, but sometimes he gives hitters too much credit and tries to come up with the perfect pitch early in the count, instead of just rearing back and getting strike one. When he gets ahead of hitters, he's a completely different pitcher. His fastball ranges from 88-93 mph, and it plays up because of his command. He has a sharp, late-breaking slider, and his changeup has come along, though he still doesn't throw it enough. The key for him this year will be commanding all his pitches better in the strike zone, and using his changeup more so that he can completely master it. Olson's tough major league debut was the first time he had struggled as a pro, and he should learn from the experience. He'll compete for a rotation spot in spring training and go back to Triple-A for more minor league innings if he doesn't make it.
If you're looking for the safest bet in this system to pitch in the big leagues, Olson is it. He jumped to high Class A in his pro debut in 2005, then made it to Double-A halfway through his first full season. The Orioles said the quality of his pitches improved at Bowie, as he seemed to pitch to the level of his competition. Olson has a well-rounded package of pitches, works efficiently and has a desire to learn and improve unmatched by anyone in the organization. He threw his fastball at 88-91 mph early in the season but worked at 89-93 later, complementing it with a hard breaking ball. His changeup has improved significantly, though he still needs to command it better. The Orioles say Olson was too fine with his pitches early in 2006, though he got more confident and was more willing to pitch to contact later. Some scouts doubt the quality of his stuff and say he'll end up as a lefty reliever. There are those in the organization who would like Olson to get a shot at the Baltimore rotation in spring training, though he'll likely open the season at Triple-A Norfolk. Assuming his changeup continues to come along, he has the stuff and work ethic to pitch in the middle of a rotation.
Olson was the top prospect in the Alaska League in 2004, and followed that with a good spring at Cal Poly. He jumped all the way to high Class A in his first summer and emerged as Frederick's best pitcher in the playoffs. Olson showed three good pitches with plus command at Cal Poly, and his stuff was better at Frederick than any of the Orioles scouts had seen in college. He pitched in the low 90s more consistently and also showed a power curveball that runs away from lefthanders. All of his pitches have so much life that it's hard for hitters to square the ball. Olson still needs to refine his changeup. Counting the playoffs, he logged 200 innings between college and pro ball. That workload might raise eyebrows, but Baltimore kept a close eye on his pitch counts, usually limiting him to 50 per outing. He worked so efficiently that he was able to get a lot of innings out of his pitches. The Orioles admit they got a better pitcher than they expected in Olson. He'll probably open 2006 back in high Class A.
Minor League Top Prospects
Olson began 2007, just his second full season, in Triple-A and ended it in the Baltimore rotation. He was one of the IL's most effective and durable starters, finishing second in the league with a 3.16 ERA. While the athletic and competitive Olson struggled mightily with his location in the majors, he showed above-average command and a firm three-pitch repertoire with Norfolk. Olson throws both a two- and four-seam fastballs, pitching from 88-93 mph, and a slurve that features curveball spin and two-plane slider movement. He used both pitches to excellent effect against Triple-A lefties, who batted a mere .179 against him. He'll need to improve the command of his average circle changeup to combat righthanders, who ate him alive in the big leagues. Because Olson is driven to succeed and shows real aptitude for pitching, he's a safe bet to reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter. "He had more of a power mentality," Jewett said. "His change will improve, but he's not your typical fastball/changeup lefty. He's more fastball/curveball, and his fastball really had good finish and life at the plate."
Olson climbed to Double-A in his first full pro season and displayed durability, consistency and solid-average stuff. If he improves his command and changeup, he could become a No. 3 or 4 starter. His fastball sits near 90 mph, and Olson has crafted a two-seamer that's slower but helps his cause against righthanders. His well above-average curveball is sharp with late, hard break and tight rotation. It's especially tough on lefties. He mixes his pitches well and moves them around, but he works deep in the count too often and tries to be too fine. His curve alone guarantees that he should become at least a dependable left-on-left reliever.
A supplemental first-round pick in 2005, Olson finished his pro debut as Fredericks' best pitcher in the playoffs, helping the Keys win the Carolina League title. He returned to Frederick this year, where he showed two quality pitches, crazy deception and a whole lot of moxie. Olson attacks hitters with a low-90s fastball that has good armside run and late life in the zone. His power curveball can be a devastating out pitch against lefthanders and righthanders alike, with solid depth and bite. Wiry strong and durable, Olson pitched 200 innings between college and pro ball last year and more this season. Olson's changeup remains a tick below average, as he still has trouble locating it consistently for strikes. The Orioles haven't rushed him and hope he further improves the changeup so he can stick in the rotation.
Though he threw a Cal Poly-record 136 innings during the spring, Olson showed no evidence of fatigue in Aberdeen. Like Reimold, he made a successful jump to high Class A in August. Olson used an 88-92 mph fastball and a plus curveball to baffle NY-P hitters, who managed just a .164 average against him. His changeup currently is below average, and his development of his third pitch will dictate how fast he moves. Counting the Carolina League playoffs, he totaled 198 innings between college and pro ball, so the Orioles decided he wouldn't attend instructional league.
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Rated Best Control in the Baltimore Orioles in 2008
Rated Best Control in the Baltimore Orioles in 2007
Rated Best Changeup in the Baltimore Orioles in 2007
Rated Best Curveball in the Baltimore Orioles in 2007
Rated Best Curveball in the Baltimore Orioles in 2006
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