Will Paul Skenes Pitch? What Past History Shows
Image credit: Bobby Dalbec (Justin Tafoya/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
The biggest question revolving around Monday’s deciding Game 3 of the College World Series final is whether LSU ace Paul Skenes will pitch, and if he does, how much he will throw.
Skenes has currently made two starts in Omaha. He started the Tigers’ first game of the CWS on June 17 and he made the crucial start against Wake Forest to advance to the CWS finals on June 22. He’s already virtually assured of finishing as the leader in innings pitched at this year’s CWS. He currently has 15.2 innings pitched in a CWS where only teammate Ty Floyd (13 innings) and Wake Forest’s Rhett Lowder (12.1 innings) have thrown more than 11 innings.
If he throws significant innings tonight, Skenes could become the eighth pitcher to reach 20 innings in a CWS since 2000. He’s thrown 243 pitches so far in this CWS, so he also could become one of the few to throw 300 pitches in a CWS this century. If he makes an appearance tonight, it will be his third appearance in 10 days.
Here’s a look at the previous seven pitchers who have thrown 20 or more innings in a CWS since 2000, including how they fared during the CWS and how their pro careers fared. It is worth noting that there has not been a pitcher picked in the first round who has thrown that many innings in a 21st century CWS.
John Hudgins, RHP, Stanford (2003)
Hudgins made three starts and threw 24 innings, posting a 1.88 ERA while going 3-0. He started on June 13, June 18 and June 22, which means he was on the same schedule as Skenes would be if he pitched tonight.
Summary: Three starts, 10 days, 24 innings, 350 pitches.
What Happened Afterwards: Hudgins was a third-round pick of the Rangers (76th overall) in 2003. His draft status was limited by his velocity. He sat at 88 mph and touched 90. He reached Triple-A a year later, but never reached the majors. He missed much of the 2006 season with bone chips in his elbow and all of 2007.
Andrew Beckwith, RHP, Coastal Carolina (2016)
A sidearmer, Beckwith led Coastal Carolina to the 2016 title by going 3-0, 0.76 with 23.2 dominating innings. Beckwith threw a complete game shutout of Florida on June 19, followed it with a complete game win over TCU on June 24 and then threw the first 5.2 innings of Coastal Carolina’s deciding Game 3 win over Arizona on June 30. Because of the schedule, Beckwith managed to make his three appearances over a span of 12 days, while this year’s tournament would have Skenes throwing over the span of 10 days.
Summary: Three starts, 12 days, 23.2 innings, 331 pitches.
What Happened Afterwards: A 32nd-round pick of the Royals in 2017, Beckwith was immediately converted to relieving. He reached Double-A in 2019, but he never pitched again after the canceled 2020 minor league season.
Michael Roth, LHP, South Carolina (2011 and 2012)
If you’re looking for the most successful pitcher in College World Series history, it’s hard to argue against Roth. He went 1-0, 1.23 in three starts and 22 innings in 2011 to lead the Gamecocks to the College World Series title. With South Carolina winning all five games, Roth threw 22 of the Gamecocks’ 51 innings. He followed it up by going 2-0, 2.05 in three starts and 22 innings in 2012 as South Carolina finished as CWS runners-up.
In 2011, Roth threw the first 7.1 innings of a win over Texas A&M on June 19. He was on the mound for seven innings of the Gamecocks’ win over Virginia on June 24 that earned them a spot in the CWS finals. Roth was back on the mound for 7.2 innings of the deciding Game 2 of the CWS finals on June 28.
In 2012, Roth threw 6.1 innings in the Gamecocks’ win in their first game in Omaha on June 16. He was back on the mound on June 21 for a complete game two-hitter in a 2-1 win over Kent State. He allowed one run in 6.2 innings on June 25, but South Carolina’s bullpen then struggled in a deciding Game 2 loss to Arizona.
Summary: 2011—Three starts, 10 days, 22 innings, 339 pitches. 2012—Three starts, 10 days, 22 innings, 289 pitches.
What Happened Afterwards: As a soft-tossing lefthander who sat in the mid 80s with his fastball, Roth’s draft status was never seen as impressive as his college pedigree. He was a ninth-round senior sign of the Angels in 2012. He made the majors as a reliever in 2014 and again briefly in 2016, and was healthy throughout his seven-year pro career that ended in 2018.
Jonah Nickerson, RHP, Oregon State (2006)
Nickerson put the Beavers on his back to lead them to the College World Series title in 2006. Nickerson went 2-0, 0.86 in three starts and 21.1 innings. He actually started the Beavers’ second game in Omaha on June 19, working seven innings in a win over Georgia. He followed that up with seven shutout innings against Rice on June 22 and was back on the mound for a June 26 deciding Game 2 of the CWS finals. He allowed two unearned runs in 6.2 innings as he outdueled Daniel Bard. Nickerson’s workload was arguably the toughest of this sample, as he threw 323 pitches over just eight days.
Summary: Three starts, eight days, 21.1 innings, 323 pitches.
What Happened Afterwards: Nickerson was a seventh-round pick of the Tigers in 2006. His lack of velocity kept him from going higher despite his impressive resume. To quote Baseball America’s Nickerson report from 2008:
“It took about one calendar year, but it seems Nickerson has finally recovered from his 323-pitch marathon at the 2006 College World Series, where he was the most outstanding player after leading Oregon State to the national championship. He returned to form near the middle of his first full season as a pro, and his ERA dropped from 5.80 before the all-star break to 2.95 thereafter. His overhand curveball had been slow and loopy during the first half, but it became sharper down the stretch. He battled back stiffness at times but was a vital part of West Michigan’s championship run.”
Nickerson made it to Double-A in 2009, but struggled there. He retired from baseball during spring training in 2010.
Bobby Dalbec, RHP, Arizona (2016)
The No. 2 starter on Arizona’s 2016 team when he wasn’t playing third base, Dalbec is the only player in this grouping to go 1-2. The other seven pitchers were a combined 13-0. Dalbec struck out 12 while allowing one run in eight innings of work against Oklahoma State on June 20, but actually was charged with the loss as Arizona was shut out by Tyler Buffettand Trey Cobb. Given a chance for revenge on June 25, Dalbec held the Cowboys to one run in seven innings of work to help Arizona advance to the finals. He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings in the deciding Game 3 of the CWS finals on June 30 in a matchup against Beckwith and Coastal Carolina.
Summary: Three starts, 11 days, 20.2 innings, 331 pitches.
What Happened Next: Dalbec always preferred hitting to pitching when he was a two-way player at Arizona. The Red Sox drafted him as a slugging third baseman. He never pitched again. He reached the majors in 2020 and hit 25 home runs for the Red Sox in 2021, but he’s largely spent 2023 at Triple-A Worcester.
Justin Wilson, LHP, Fresno State (2008)
Wilson threw the first seven innings of an easy 17-5 win over Rice in Fresno State’s opener on June 15. He left with a lead when throwing 5.1 innings against North Carolina on June 21, but the Tar Heels rallied back against the bullpen. Wilson then took the ball to win the deciding game of the championship series on June 25. He allowed one run in eight innings to beat Georgia.
Summary: Three starts, 11 days, 20.1 innings, 346 pitches.
What Happened Next: Wilson was a fifth-round pick of the Pirates in 2008. He reached the majors as a reliever in 2012. He has 527 MLB appearances. Wilson had Tommy John surgery in 2022 as a 34-year-old and is currently recovering.
Kevin Abel, RHP, Oregon State (2018)
Abel threw four innings of relief in the Beavers’ second game of the CWS on June 18. He allowed one run and one hit and threw 58 pitches. Abel then shut down Mississippi State for seven innings (allowing one run) on 95 pitches on June 23. Abel then threw one scoreless inning of relief on June 27, throwing 23 pitches. Abel then threw a complete game shutout in the deciding Game 3 of the CWS final on June 28, throwing 129 pitches while allowing two hits.
Summary: Four games, 11 days, 21 innings, 305 pitches.
What Happened Next: Abel was Baseball America’s Freshman of the Year in 2018 as he went 8-2, 2.88 with 108 strikeouts in 81.1 innings. He made three starts in 2019 before succumbing to an elbow injury that needed Tommy John surgery. He returned to action in 2021, going 3-5, 3.62 with 109 strikeouts but also 61 walks in 82 innings. Abel was a seventh-round pick of the Reds in 2021. He’s pitching in Low-A right now, where his control issues remain. He has walked 27 in 31.2 innings with a 4.55 ERA this year.
