Hot Sheet Chat (5/2/23)

Kyle Glaser hosted a chat to discuss today’s Hot Sheet. You can read the transcript below.

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, thanks for coming out today. Let’s chat.

Andrew (NYC):

 Do you see Encarnacion-Strand as a top 100 prospect next update? If so, where might he land?

Kyle Glaser: Christian Encarnacion-Strand entered the year not too terribly far off, although there were more than a few guys ahead. He obviously just had a very, very loud start to the season once he got out to Louisville a little over a week ago. With continued performance and a few graduations, I could see him rising onto the back. We’ll see how he keeps it up and, most importantly, if he cuts down on his strikeouts from a year ago.

Steve (Mass):

 Any prospects creating a lot more buzz than anticipated so far to start the season?

Kyle Glaser: Again, it’s very early so I wouldn’t go overboard on anyone. I mentioned Junior Caminero and Robby Snelling last week. I’ll add Jackson Holliday has really taken off and solidified himself as a slam-dunk Top 10 prospect for most people in the game. Edgar Quero’s start at Double-A has really drawn some attention. Evan Carter has also really taken off and will move up a good bit in our next update.

Michael (Raleigh):

 Gabriel Gonzalez has been consistently hot since the beginning of the season. He also hasn’t played since 4/22 and I have been unable to determine why. Can you give an update on his status. Thanks.

Kyle Glaser: I just got the answer from a Mariners official and Tweeted it out. Gonzalez been out with what club officials are calling a “minor arm issue.” He’s slated to return as a DH this week and be back in the outfield as soon as next week.

Brad (NJ):

 Still no Hot Sheet love for Shane Drohan? Is it because he hasnt pitched twice in a week yet? His line in AAA as a lefty SP is 23IP only 4BB and 26K, 0.78 ERA and 0.74 WHIP. I hear he worked out hard and gained some strength on the offseason and seems to have gotten past his control issues with the walks. When will he get some Hot Sheet Love???

Kyle Glaser: Drohan is off to a great start. One quick correction – he’s in Double-A, not Triple-A. In any case, he absolutely had a great outing last week and has been excellent all season. Every week, there are more than 20 guys worthy of making the Hot Sheet, but we only have 20 spots. It’s just a numbers game. He’s been great, and his omission should not be seen as a negative reflection on him in any way.

Jim (Berlin, NJ):

 Is the hitting environment at Spokane (and in High A West) aiding Sterlin Thompson with slugging? His bat-to-ball skills are certainly as advertised, but if power becomes a tick above average, well, that’s a stick and hit tool to dream on in Coors, no?

Kyle Glaser: You absolutely have to take context into account, and yes, Spokane certainly boosts home run totals and slugging percentages in a significant way. With Thompson, it’s good to see his hitting ability is translating into pro ball and if he continues to hit the ball hard, the power will come. He has a chance to be a really good player – this hot start has just exemplified that, rather than materially changed anything.

Ian (Los Angeles):

 Henry Davis had a big offensive week. Has he reestablished himself as the future Pirates backstop or do defensive questions remain? When do you think he will likely be promoted to the show?

Kyle Glaser: Davis’ power and patience are absolutely real. The defensive questions remain. How much he improves behind the plate this year and beyond will determine the answer to your first question. As for a big league timeline, keep in mind he’s still still played less than 50 games above the Class A levels. There’s no reason to rush him, especially because the time and reps on defense in the minors will only help long-term.

Julian (Miami):

 Did you forget Pat Monteverde?

Kyle Glaser: Monteverde was on the previous Hot Sheet. He had another great start last week. Again, it’s just a numbers game. A lot of players have great weeks. Being limited to 20 spots means inevitably someone worthy will be left off.

AG (NYC):

 What is the current perception of Consuegra in the Mets system?

Kyle Glaser: That Stanley Consuegra has prolific tools but is going to have to hone in his approach and cut down on his strikeouts to have success at higher levels. The early results this year have been good in that regard. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep it up.

Oliver (Boston):

 Hi Kyle, Promotion season is in full swing, with most attention rightly placed on top 100 prospects debuting nealy every day. Often the most interesting corresponding moves are the guys getting called up from extended rather than the journeymen returned to AAA. Who do you have on your follow list over the next few weeks? Any chance we see guys like Josue De Paula, Yasser Mercedes, Ethan Salas or even Sebastian Walcott in A ball by the end of the month?

Kyle Glaser: There is a very good chance we see Ethan Salas in Lake Elsinore by the end of May, which would be remarkable given he’s 16 years old. When/if that happens, we’ll have some cool charts about the history of 16 year olds in full-season bal land how rare it is.

Ken (Brick):

 The Oakland A’s are in a rebuild, but I don’t see a lot of hope in the minors. Other than Soderstrom, Do you see any future stars?

Kyle Glaser: I don’t know about stars. I think Zack Gelof can hit and be a starter in the big leagues. Mason Miller, Ken Waldichuk and Esteuy Ruiz are all preseason top 10 prospects in the system who should be keepers in the majors. Jordan Diaz fits in that bucket, too. I’m kind of a believer in Denzel Clarke, although that’s a high-risk bet. But on the whole, the A’s don’t have much in their farm system, which is a problem given all the trades they’ve made and high draft picks they’ve had. Make no mistake, this organization is in a very bad place on a number of levels. It’s going to be a very long time before the A’s are good again.

Ken (Lakewood CA):

 Hi Kyle. Love your chats. Thanks. I read nothing but good things about Caminero. It’s early but at 19 he is thriving in A+. Seems to have power, though BA lists him at 5’11″/157. What are your thoughts on him?

Kyle Glaser: That height and weight are way outdated, as are most listed heights and weights for international players. (They get them when they sign at 16 and often don’t update them for years – my favorite was when Reyes Moronta was listed at 190 in San Jose when he was visibly 250+ pounds). In any case, Caminero has a lot to like. He’s strong, his hands work well at the plate, he’s a smart hitter and he’s really blossoming physically. He’s a good one.

Ken (Brick):

 Oscar Colas, Do you think he was rushed too fast?

Kyle Glaser: Possibly. Colas only had seven games in Triple-A. At the same time, he was given a chance to win a job in spring training and he won it. Sometimes guys just struggle, go down and get a reset in Triple-A, and come back better for it. I wouldn’t be overly concerned long-term.

jose (Santa Ana Ca):

 What are the Giants doing to help Harrison with his control situation? He is unhittable when he throws strikes. Maybe he needs to work with Randy Johnson, who had control problem early on.

Kyle Glaser: Control is never really going to be Harrison’s hallmark. Obviously it’s been extremely bad early and needs a lot of improvement. I wouldn’t expect him to ever be a guy who dots the strike zone. Let’s see what adjustments he makes to his delivery and release point as the season progresses.

Tim (Santa Cruz):

 Tulsa rotation is stacked with talent: River Ryan, Sheehan, Frasso, Nastrini, Knack (can’t they loan some of these guys to the A’s??) What sort of role/impact at the MLB level do you project for each?

Kyle Glaser: Tulsa indeed has a loaded staff. Generally speaking, Nastrini and Knack are seen as starters and Ryan and Sheehan project best as relievers. Frasso is the wild card who you can see going either way depending on whether or not he finds some consistency and command with his secondaries. You can find other opinions out there, but I would say that’s the overall consensus on their future roles in MLB at this point.

Bill B (Glen Allen, VA):

 While I know you don’t expect to see the Top 100 players on the prospect hot sheet each week, it does seem that many of the top 25 are starting off slowly this year, much like some of the struggles some top prospects had in the majors over their first 100ABs or 20 innings. Would you agree with this assessment? Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Guys get off to slow starts. Rookies, veterans, Top 25 prospects, Top 100 prospects, Top 500 prospects – it happens. Unless a guy looks truly, truly overmatched and just obviously lacking in something (talent, physicality, instincts) I wouldn’t read too much into it. Let’s see how these guys settle in and what adjustments they make.

Ken (Brick):

 What are your thoughts on Josue DePaula? High Ceiling?

Kyle Glaser: I would encourage you to read Josue De Paula’s scouting report from the BA Prospect Handbook to answer that question. https://www.baseballamerica.com/players/9087-josue-de-paula%20paula/

Ken (Brick):

 My friend love Luisangel Acuna. He sees future star, I see future utility player, What do you think?

Kyle Glaser: I see Luisangel Acuna as a future utility player, personally. He’s a smaller guy with a big swing who is going to be better moving around the infield than playing shortstop everyday. That said, if he keeps performing, he wouldn’t be the first guy to hit his way into an everyday role.

Jose (Miami):

 Has Yiddi Cappe elevated his stock in the early season? Potential star?

Kyle Glaser: Future star is a bit much. Cappe is a good player off to a nice start. He’s a talented hitter and a good athlete. How he’s able to keep his aggressiveness under control and better use the whole field over a larger sample will determine if his future outlook has materially changed.

Tyler (DC):

 Kjerstad is finally healthy and hitting quite well in AA – only to be seemingly passed by Cowser in the queue. Which do you prefer? Either going to be an impact bat in the bigs? Heston seeing some time at 1B….

Kyle Glaser: They’re very different players. Cowser is the better hitter and athlete, as well as player overall. Kjerstad’s power is very real. Both have a shot to carve out roles in the majors and help the Orioles.

David (Cleveland):

 Grab bag of non-top-100 pitchers with pedigree and nice early starts to the year; how would you rank the following in terms of probability to make the top-100 by next spring: Smith-Shawver, Robby Snelling, Will Warren, Sam Bachman and Whisenhunt

Kyle Glaser: Snelling is very good and someone I think we could see on at some point. Whisenhunt looked excellent at San Jose. If he keeps it up against age-appropriate competition at High-A, he could move into consideration. Those are the top two of the group you mentioned.

Fantasy Guy (Last Place):

 How quickly do you think CES and Lawrence Butler could get the call to the bigs, especially if they keep up their torrid paces with their big league teams struggling?

Kyle Glaser: I expect Encarnacion-Strand to get the call at some point this year after he gets a few more games at Triple-A under his belt. Butler is still at Double-A and will need time at Triple-A. He needs to see that caliber of pitching and get used to it before you can bring him to the majors.

Bob (WA):

 What can we expect from Bryce Miller? He was very homer prone in AA, that doesn’t bode well for a double jump to MLB.

Kyle Glaser: With Miller, you’ll see a really impressive fastball, secondaries that need some work and the control might be inconsistent. This is certainly a big jump. If he handles it, awesome. If he struggles, I wouldn’t panic.

Mark (San Francisco):

 It seems like the Giants are stuck in neutral. Are they simply missing on their 1st rnd draft picks, and others, or are they not developing them well? Is it the front office/ scouts or is ownership an issue (their draft issues pre-date Farhan) ? Thank you

Kyle Glaser: The Giants have not drafted well and they took away the wrong lessons from their success in 2021 – they were primarily successful because their stars (Posey, Gausman, Crawford, etc.) performed, not because they platooned effectively. They have to improve in the draft – particularly in the first round – and start spending what it takes to acquire the stars in the meantime. To their credit, they tried with Carlos Correa and Aaron Judge this offseason and it just didn’t work out. But if they keep doing what they’re doing, they’re going to be stuck in neutral.

Ryan (Michigan):

 Does Ben Brown have a chance at the top 100?

Kyle Glaser: Ben Brown could end up there with continued performance and some graduations. His talent is worthy. The biggest thing with him is going to be showing he can stay durable and healthy.

Alex (MD):

 As a hobbyist it’s difficult to get an understanding on a lower level minor league sp and his stuff. Aside from K% and SwStk% on fantrax and searching twitter for velo/pitch shape information, would you recommend any other tools to assist in the evaluation process?

Kyle Glaser: Watch the games. Never, every try to evaluate any player based solely on numbers. Watch the games. Watch the talent. See how they grow and what adjustments they make. The numbers are part of the equation. Nothing sufficiently replaces seeing the players themselves.

Sean (LA):

 What’s yours and scouts’ take on Jackson Merrill’s slow start? He’s hardly striking out but the average has been rough.

Kyle Glaser: You should always ignore the numbers the first four to six weeks of the year in the Midwest League. These guys are freezing. Wait until the weather warms up before assessing Merrill and everyone else struggling in the MWL.

Danny (Brooklyn):

 Again, totally understand its still VERY early but are you encouraged or discouraged by Spencer Jones start? Extra bases are fun (multiple HR and triple games are fun) but his strikeout numbers are a little scary. The comparison isn’t fair but Judge never ran SO numbers like that at any level.

Kyle Glaser: This is kind of who Spencer Jones is. He’s a big guy with long levers and a lot of power, but also a lot of holes. Judge always had a short swing despite his height. Jones does not. He is going to have to find a way to close his holes.

Mike (Oconomowoc, WI):

 I know Christopher Morel is no longer an official prospect, but how much has his stock and projection increased due to his clubbing of AAA pitching this year?

Kyle Glaser: It’s certainly good to see. At the end of the day, the biggest thing with Morel is going to be if he can cut down on the strikeouts. He’s always had borderline plus-plus raw power. It’s a matter of improving his pitch selection and keeping his swing length in check to get to it against MLB pitching.

Marc (NYC):

 Have you watched any of Gray-Rod’s outings? I came away from his start vs CWS thinking the change was better than his slider. His most recent start only reinforced my opinion. Was the industry (or just your grades even) too low on his slider or maybe too high on the change?

Kyle Glaser: I caught a little bit of each of Rodriguez’s last two starts. There’s no question his changeup has been his best secondary pitch so far. His cutter and slider though have also shown some flashes, the cutter in particular. At the end of the day, this is a guy with a complete arsenal of potentially plus stuff. I’m sure there will be some days where maybe he has more feel for the cutter or slider than the change, and other days vice versa. In the end, everything he throws gets high marks for a reason. It all has the potential to be pretty exceptional.

Mags (WI):

 Andrew Abbott, strikeout machine. At the MLB level, is he a stud or dud?

Kyle Glaser: That’s an extremely absolutist view of players. Abbott is a good pitcher. He projects to be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter, which is very valuable and something every team needs. That’s a not a stud, but it’s certainly not a dud. He should help the Reds and be a valuable part of the team.

Kyle Glaser: All right everyone. That will do it for today. Thanks for coming out, and have a great rest of your week.