RoboScout FAAB Targets For April 30, 2023

Low-A:

The top 2023 Low-A hitting performances, per RoboScout, in order are: Jackson Holliday (Orioles No. 3 prospect), Ryan Clifford (Astros No. 20 prospect), Creed Willems (Orioles unranked), Luke Adams (Brewers No. 26 prospect), Samuel Basallo (Orioles No. 15 prospect), Cole Young (Mariners No. 2 prospect), Maick Collado (Guardians unranked), Jett Williams (Mets No. 6 prospect), Leonardo Bernal (Cardinals No. 12 prospect) and Nate Furman (Guardians unranked).

There is nothing to add about Holliday that you don’t already know. Last week I wrote about the two Orioles catchers and they are still sustaining their production. Bernal was my preseason catcher breakout candidate, so it’s nice to see him showing well. This week, though, I will touch on Adams. 

Milwaukee’s 12th-round pick in 2022 debuted in the Arizona Complex League last year with a loud .375/.512/.562 slash line, which first caught RoboScout’s eye. Thus far in 2023, in just over 50 plate appearances, the corner infielder has a 199 wRC+ (while lowering his career on-base percentage to a paltry .505). His ultimate defensive home being third base was always viewed as optimistic, and the fact that in his first professional season he’s played first base and DH as much as he has the hot corner seems to support the notion that the Brewers already feel the same way. What that means is that he will have to hit, with a much higher offensive bar to clear at first. We have an above-average scouting grade on his power and so far he’s doing nothing to diminish that, knocking three home runs in 38 at-bats. Through Friday’s games, he was carrying a five-game hitting streak, with two home runs and a stolen base during that span. Adams may never rank very high on prospects lists, but RoboScout does think the bat is undervalued. He’s a player to keep an eye on.

The top Low-A pitcher performances in 2023 (minimum six innings), per RoboScout, in order are: JR Ritchie (Braves No. 4 prospect), Frank Mozzicato (Royals No. 5 prospect), Lyon Richardson (Reds No. 28 prospect, who has been promoted to High-A), Rafael Sanchez (Blue Jays unranked), Steven Zobac (Royals No. 29 prospect, who I touched on last week), Cedric De Grandpre (Braves unranked), David Sandlin (Royals unranked) and Maddux Bruns (Dodgers No. 19 prospect).

As noted above, I touched on Zobac last week, but this week I want to talk about his Columbia Fireflies teammate. No, not Mozzicato, it’s Sandlin, a 2022 11th-round pick out of Oklahoma. “The Sandman” entered the RoboScout top 10 in High-A with his mid-to-high-90s fastball and average to above-average slider that, along with his serviceable curveball and changeup, have punched out 31 batters over 18.1 innings while only walking six. At this rate, Sandlin will start appearing on prospects lists sooner rather than later. If he can sustain this level of domination, he, and especially Mozzicato, will enter the top 600 conversation shortly.

As a final note, the Royals’ pitching development has recently had a bad reputation as Asa Lacy, Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar have struggled to actualize their draft and prospect pedigree into any sustained professional success. According to RoboScout, though, with the early season success of Zobac, Mozzicato, Sandlin—and even High-A revelation Luinder Avila and MLB Tommy John victim Kris Bubic—the early returns in 2023 seem to indicate that the Royals’ pitching development may have turned a corner.

High-A:

The Top High-A hitting performances in 2023, per RoboScout, in order are: Junior Caminero (Rays No. 8 prospect), Jonatan Clase (Mariners No. 12 prospect), Yiddi Cappe (Marlins No. 4 prospect), Sterlin Thompson (Rockies No. 8 prospect), Harry Ford (Mariners No. 1 prospect), Alejandro Osuna (Rangers unranked), Ignacio Alvarez (Braves No. 15 prospect), Yeiner Fernandez (Dodgers No. 24 prospect) and Carter Jensen and Cayden Wallace (Royals No. 10 and No. 2 prospects, respectively). 

It’s no surprise that Caminero is the No. 1 prospect in High-A. He recently entered the Top 100 Prospects list and a promotion to Double-A is probably coming sooner rather than later, so there’s no need to dive in any further on him.

Second on the list, though, is Clase. The center fielder on a fun Everett team that also boasts Harry Ford, Tyler Locklear and Axel Sanchez is on a serious heater right now, with four home runs (and four stolen bases) in his last five games. Known mostly for his speed—he stole 55 bases in 2022 in just under 500 plate appearances—Clase has also begun tapping into his above-average raw power thus far in 2023 with six home runs in just under 90 plate appearances through Friday’s games (one homer per 15 plate appearances). This shouldn’t be too much of a surprise, however, as savvy prospect watchers may have noticed that Clase closed out 2022 with five home runs in his last 65 plate appearances (one homer per 13 plate appearances)—so he’s actually sustained this game power for the equivalent of a quarter season. He’s always had a good barrel rate and puts a high percentage of his balls in play at the ideal launch angle. The question has never been the tools or defense, but rather his approach at the plate, and the early returns are optimistic for the young Dominican: his contact percentage, in-zone contact percentage and chase rate have all improved from 2022. He is notably being much more passive this year compared to 2022, swinging at a rate in the bottom 10% of the league. This is translating to a higher strikeout rate (27%) than his swinging strike rate (8%) would suggest he would have, as he finds himself behind in the count more often than not. Although, it’s not yet clear whether these gains will be sustained, so far this looks like a nice step forward for the prospect—and he may find himself patrolling center field in Double-A Arkansas before long.

The Rockies may have struck gold in Thompson, a supplemental first-round pick. The former Florida star is destroying the Northwest League to the tune of a .483/.536/.739 slash line over 17 games. He ranks fourth on Roboscout among High-A hitters and shows several quality traits, and he’s currently walking more than he’s striking out, while showing power and some speed upside. It’s a contact-over-power profile as Thompson’s high-end exit velocities are fringe to below-average. The bat-to-ball skills and swing decisions are impressive, and Thompson’s in-zone contact rate is approaching 10% while his chase rate is below 25%. Despite some concerns about his overall impact, Thompson does have 10 extra-base hits in 17 games. His high line drive rate (32.7%) and all-fields approach should allow him to sustain strong production even after his .481 BABIP stabilizes. Thompson has started 16 games at third base, providing some hope he can stick at the position long term. 

The top High-A pitcher performances in 2023 so far, per RoboScout, in order are: Luinder Avila (Royals unranked), AJ Smith-Shawver (Braves No. 1 prospect), Noah Cameron (Royals No. 23 prospect), Dylan Ray (D-backs No. 20 prospect), Ronan Kopp (Dodgers No. 15 prospect), Kumar Rocker (Rangers No. 10 prospect), Keider Montero (Tigers unranked), Will Dion (Guardians unranked), Josh Stephan (Rangers unranked), Drew Thorpe (Yankees No. 8 prospect) and Trace Bright (Orioles unranked).

Avila has had the top-ranked High-A RoboScout performance for two weeks now, despite the fact that his  fastball is “only” in the low 90s (precisely the league average velocity for four seamers in High-A) and has neither ride nor run. His curveball, however, is his primary pitch and with its 2,800 rpm spin rate (more spin than the average MLB curveball) and massive 15-inch horizontal sweep, it’s generated a CSW percentage over 40% and a whiff percentage of nearly 50%. The 21-year-old Venezuelan’s four appearances have each increased in length, culminating in his most recent five-inning and 85-pitch start in Lansing’s hitter’s park. It’s only been 17 innings, but with his 60% groundball rate, he’s looking increasingly like he might be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Not bad considering he wasn’t even in the Top 30 for the Royals before the season

Ranking fourth among High-A pitchers is Ray. A 2022 fourth-round pick out of Alabama, Ray is coming off his best start of the season on Thursday, striking out nine in a win against Tri-City. Ray uses four pitches but his bread and butter are a high-ride four-seam fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, a high-80s gyro slider and a changeup. Ray uses all three pitches effectively to neutralize split issues and the numbers back that up, as righthanded and lefthanded hitters each are hitting below .190 against Ray in 2023. He’s shown a knack for missing bats with double-digit swinging strikes in all four of his starts, including 17 in his most recent turn. Ray possesses intriguing bat-missing skills and a strong foundation of a starter’s arsenal.

Double-A:

The top Double-A hitting performances, per RoboScout, in order are: Evan Carter (Rangers No. 1 prospect), Jorbit Vivas (Dodgers No. 20 prospect), Owen Caissie (Cubs No. 13 prospect), Jasson Dominguez (Yankees No. 3 prospect), Nick Yorke (Red Sox No. 7 prospect), Edgar Quero (Angels No. 4 prospect), Zach Neto (Angels No. 2 prospect), Tyler Black (Brewers No. 8 prospect), Henry Davis (Pirates No. 3 prospect) and Bladimir Restituyo (Rockies unranked). Just for fun, the next six names are Luis Matos, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jackson Chourio, Colt Keith, Jordan Lawlar and Coby Mayo.

Vivas has always been a hit-over-power prospect, but so far in 2023, he has been showing the signs of a power breakout, with four bombs and a slugging percentage of .712. Despite the eye-popping numbers, from the limited underlying metrics we have had access to, Vivas hasn’t really added much exit velocity or even optimized his launch angle—his numbers look very similar to what he showed last season—and there isn’t much projection left in his compact body. Still, the Venezuelan looks to be developing into an above-average major league bat with, at least so far in this short look, the ceiling of average game power. His defensive position is likely second base only, so he will have to maintain the upward trajectory if he wants to become a first division regular.

After an early season promotion to Double-A the Astros’ Joey Loperfido has continued to hit. Loperfido now has a hit in every game he’s played in since the move to Corpus Christi while showing power, on-base ability and speed. A versatile player, Loperfido has seen time at first base, second base and all three outfield positions, lending some credence to the idea he could fit into a super utility role. Loperfido’s average exit velocity is north of 90 mph with an above-average in-zone contact rate and overall contact rate. Loperfido is proving to be a versatile player offensively as well as in the field. 

The top Double-A RoboScout performances from pitchers in 2023 (minimum seven innings), in order are: Andrew Abbott (Reds No. 11 prospect), Kai-Wei Teng (Giants unranked), Ricky Tiedemann (Blue Jays No. 1 prospect), Cristian Mena (White Sox No.  6 prospect), Mike Vasil (Mets No. 12 prospect), Pat Monteverde (Marlins unranked), Royber Salinas (A’s No. 10 prospect), Ben Brown (Cubs No. 6 prospect), Coleman Crow (Angels No. 21 prospect) and Emmet Sheehan and Nick Frasso (Dodgers No. 13 and No. 11 prospects, respectively).

In the previous two articles (and podcasts), we’ve touched on Mena, Vasil and Abbott, so today I want to look into Teng, who, behind Abbott, has the second highest strikeout rate among starting pitchers in Double-A. Adding to the run prevention profile is his (plus) 60% groundball rate. The calling card is his slider/sweeper, which he throws nearly 67% of the time, and it shows the underlying traits (vertical movement, horizontal movement, velocity and RPM) of a major league average sweeper. The slider, the groundball rate and the major league serviceable fastball that averages 94 mph and touches 96 mph adds up to the potential of a back-of-the-rotation starter. 

Triple-A:

The top Triple-A RoboScout performances (minimum 40 plate appearances) have been in order: Buddy Kennedy (D-backs unranked), Jake Bauers (Yankees graduated, called up this weekend), Matt McLain (Reds No. 12 prospect), Christopher Morel (Cubs graduated), Brett Baty (Mets No. 3 prospect), Luken Baker (Cardinals unranked) and Mark Vientos (Mets No. 7 prospect).

The biggest surprise on that list (other than Bauers) has to be Baker. Baker is another slugger in a similar mold to Juan Yepez and Alec Burleson—the Cardinals seem to have a type. Baker is mashing in Memphis but challenged defensively, especially by the major league depth chart. In his third stint in the International League, the massive slugger has found a rhythm, improving his contact percentage to league average, while still crushing baseballs with his double-plus power. I’m not sure what Baker’s Cardinals future is, but the lazy comp is Luke Voit, and all that entails.

The top Triple-A pitching prospect performances in 2023, per RoboScout (minimum nine innings), in order are: Louie Varland (Twins No. 9 prospect), Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals No. 4 prospect), Logan Allen (Guardians No. 6 prospect), Bryan Hoeing (Marlins No. 22 prospect, who pitched for the Marlins this past week), Riley Thompson (Cubs No. 30 prospect), Nick Robertson (Dodgers unranked) and Quinn Priester (Pirates No. 5 prospect).

Only recently passing Liberatore (at least before the latter’s solid Saturday performance) to sit atop the Triple-A leaderboard, Varland may most likely be pressed into service for the Twins. Although Bailey Ober has been called up to replace the ailing Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle’s elbow tenderness may require another rotation fill-in. You may be surprised that Varland projects today to have a similar WHIP, ERA and strikeout rate in 2023 as popular redraft targets Allen and Tanner Bibee (Guardians No. 7 prospect).