Analyzing Our 2022 Top 100 Rankings Movement
Image credit: James Wood (Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images)
When we upped the frequency of our in-season Top 100 and Team Top 30 updates, we did so to try to ensure that our subscribers continue to get the best, most-up-to-date and most insightful prospect rankings available.
But that does lead to a worthwhile question. By updating our Top 100 monthly and our Top 30s three times during the season, are we increasing the amount of insights we provide, or are we adding noise by shuffling players up and down the list based on smallish samples?
To get an idea of that, we wanted to study how we moved players up, down or on or off the list in 2022. We’re showing our work, so you can make your own decisions as to how useful our in-season movement was.
So here are our Top 100 Prospect lists from January 2022, May 2022, June 2022, July 2022 and August 2022. We have noted how many spots up or down a player moved in each update, and color coded moves of 10 spots or more up or down with green (for moves up) and red (for moves down).
Here’s a complete look at all 161 players who ranked on the Top 100 Prospects list at some point in 2022.
Player | JAN | +- | MAY | +- | JUN | +- | JUL | +- | AUG |
Adley Rutschman | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Julio Rodriguez | 2 | 0 | 2 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Bobby Witt Jr. | 3 | 0 | 3 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Riley Greene | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | Grad. | |
Spencer Torkelson | 5 | 0 | 5 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Grayson Rodriguez | 6 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
Gabriel Moreno | 7 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Shane Baz | 8 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | -13 | 15 |
CJ Abrams | 9 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | -5 | 13 | 2 | 11 |
Anthony Volpe | 10 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | -7 | 16 | 6 | 10 |
Keibert Ruiz | 11 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | ||||
George Kirby | 12 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Francisco Alvarez | 13 | 1 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
Oneil Cruz | 14 | 1 | 13 | -8 | 21 | 9 | 12 | Grad. | |
Marcelo Mayer | 15 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 12 | -2 | 14 | 1 | 13 |
Brennen Davis | 16 | 1 | 15 | -25 | 40 | -7 | 47 | -4 | 51 |
Marco Luciano | 17 | 1 | 16 | 2 | 14 | -5 | 19 | 1 | 18 |
Noelvi Marte | 18 | 1 | 17 | -35 | 52 | 4 | 48 | 13 | 35 |
Triston Casas | 19 | 1 | 18 | -2 | 20 | -9 | 29 | -1 | 30 |
Corbin Carroll | 20 | 1 | 19 | 15 | 4 | -1 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Tyler Soderstrom | 21 | -1 | 22 | -1 | 23 | -22 | 45 | 11 | 34 |
Zac Veen | 22 | -1 | 23 | -6 | 29 | -3 | 32 | 3 | 29 |
Diego Cartaya | 23 | -3 | 26 | 1 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 9 |
Jordan Walker | 24 | 4 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
Jack Leiter | 25 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 24 | -13 | 37 | -30 | 67 |
Cade Cavalli | 26 | -1 | 27 | -11 | 38 | -25 | 63 | 8 | 55 |
Reid Detmers | 27 | -1 | 28 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Jordan Lawlar | 28 | -1 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
Robert Hassell III | 29 | 4 | 25 | 3 | 22 | -5 | 27 | 2 | 25 |
Nick Yorke | 30 | -3 | 33 | 1 | 32 | -18 | 50 | -51 | Dropped |
Alek Thomas | 31 | 1 | 30 | -4 | 34 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Jose Barrero | 32 | -2 | 34 | 7 | 27 | -43 | 70 | Grad. | |
Nolan Gorman | 33 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 19 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Hunter Greene | 34 | -1 | 35 | 7 | 28 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Nick Lodolo | 35 | -1 | 36 | ?? | 23 | 3 | 20 | ||
Aaron Ashby | 36 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||||
Seiya Suzuki | 37 | 5 | 32 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Bobby Miller | 38 | 1 | 37 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 24 |
Josh Jung | 39 | 1 | 38 | -3 | 41 | 2 | 39 | -5 | 44 |
Brett Baty | 40 | 1 | 39 | 0 | 39 | 8 | 31 | 3 | 28 |
Miguel Vargas | 41 | 1 | 40 | 9 | 31 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 27 |
Henry Davis | 42 | 1 | 41 | 8 | 33 | -11 | 44 | -42 | 86 |
MJ Melendez | 43 | -3 | 46 | 3 | 43 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Nick Pratto | 44 | -3 | 47 | -7 | 54 | -6 | 60 | -10 | 70 |
Josh Lowe | 45 | -3 | 48 | -5 | 53 | -8 | 61 | Grad. | |
Matt Brash | 46 | -3 | 49 | -25 | 74 | 3 | 71 | Grad. | |
Michael Harris | 47 | 5 | 42 | 24 | 18 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Austin Martin | 48 | -38 | 86 | -15 | Dropped | ||||
Eury Perez | 49 | 6 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 8 |
Nick Gonzales | 50 | 0 | 50 | -17 | 67 | -34 | Dropped | ||
Matthew Liberatore | 51 | 0 | 51 | 7 | 44 | 8 | 36 | -43 | 79 |
Taj Bradley | 52 | 0 | 52 | 7 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 2 | 16 |
Daniel Espino | 53 | 32 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 15 | -2 | 17 |
Mick Abel | 54 | 1 | 53 | -3 | 56 | -10 | 66 | 0 | 66 |
D.L. Hall | 55 | 1 | 54 | 3 | 51 | 0 | 51 | -10 | 61 |
Luis Campusano | 56 | 1 | 55 | 0 | 55 | -7 | 62 | -3 | 65 |
Shea Langeliers | 57 | 1 | 56 | -13 | 69 | -16 | 85 | 1 | 84 |
Oswald Peraza | 58 | 1 | 57 | -9 | 66 | -15 | 81 | 0 | 81 |
Vidal Brujan | 59 | 1 | 58 | -5 | 63 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Gunnar Henderson | 60 | 1 | 59 | 23 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 6 | 1 |
Brady House | 61 | 1 | 60 | -4 | 64 | -37 | Dropped | ||
Kahlil Watson | 62 | 1 | 61 | -26 | 87 | -14 | Dropped | ||
Cole Winn | 63 | 1 | 62 | -39 | Dropped | ||||
Nate Pearson | 64 | -37 | Dropped | ||||||
Tyler Freeman | 65 | 2 | 63 | -12 | 75 | Dropped | |||
Brayan Rocchio | 66 | 2 | 64 | -12 | 76 | -15 | 91 | 15 | 76 |
Bryson Stott | 67 | 2 | 65 | -12 | 77 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
George Valera | 68 | 2 | 66 | -6 | 72 | 31 | 41 | -4 | 45 |
Edward Cabrera | 69 | 1 | 68 | 9 | 59 | 3 | 56 | -2 | 58 |
Korey Lee | 70 | -6 | 76 | -25 | Dropped | ||||
Joey Bart | 71 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | ||||
Jeremy Peña | 72 | 3 | 69 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Luis Matos | 73 | 3 | 70 | -16 | 86 | -15 | Dropped | ||
Max Meyer | 74 | 30 | 44 | 7 | 37 | 12 | 25 | -7 | 32 |
Orelvis Martinez | 75 | 4 | 71 | -18 | 89 | -12 | Dropped | ||
Michael Busch | 76 | 4 | 72 | 14 | 58 | 18 | 40 | -10 | 50 |
Elly De La Cruz | 77 | 4 | 73 | 11 | 62 | 41 | 21 | -1 | 22 |
Liover Peguero | 78 | 4 | 74 | 6 | 68 | 0 | 68 | -14 | 82 |
Jackson Jobe | 79 | 2 | 77 | -6 | 83 | 5 | 78 | 4 | 74 |
Roansy Contreras | 80 | 2 | 78 | 28 | 50 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Cristian Hernandez | 81 | 2 | 79 | -5 | 84 | 5 | 79 | -22 | Dropped |
Royce Lewis | 82 | 7 | 75 | 26 | 49 | -10 | 59 | -1 | 60 |
Brandon Williamson | 83 | 3 | 80 | -21 | Dropped | ||||
Cristian Pache | 84 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | ||||
Jordan Balazovic | 85 | -13 | 98 | -3 | Dropped | ||||
Joe Ryan | 86 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | ||||
Jasson Dominguez | 87 | -14 | Dropped | ||||||
Quinn Priester | 88 | 7 | 81 | 1 | 80 | 5 | 75 | 6 | 69 |
Geraldo Perdomo | 89 | 7 | 82 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Jose Miranda | 90 | 7 | 83 | Grad. | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Jarren Duran | 91 | 7 | 84 | -16 | 100 | Grad. | Grad. | ||
Ronny Mauricio | 92 | 7 | 85 | 0 | 85 | -16 | Dropped | ||
Blake Walston | 93 | 6 | 87 | -14 | Dropped | 5 | 96 | -5 | Dropped |
Heliot Ramos | 94 | 6 | 88 | -13 | Dropped | ||||
Kyle Harrison | 95 | 28 | 67 | 21 | 46 | 24 | 22 | 3 | 19 |
Ryne Nelson | 96 | -5 | Dropped | ||||||
Curtis Mead | 97 | 8 | 89 | 18 | 71 | 43 | 28 | 2 | 26 |
Colton Cowser | 98 | -3 | Dropped | 97 | |||||
Ryan Pepiot | 99 | 9 | 90 | 12 | 78 | 23 | 55 | 1 | 54 |
Gabriel Arias | 100 | 9 | 91 | 12 | 79 | -22 | Dropped | ||
Elehuris Montero | 1 | 100 | 0 | 100 | |||||
Jace Jung | 99 | ||||||||
Jordan Westburg | 2 | 99 | 1 | 98 | |||||
Logan Allen | 3 | 98 | 2 | 96 | |||||
Wilmer Flores | 6 | 95 | 0 | 95 | |||||
Alex Ramirez | 8 | 93 | -1 | 94 | |||||
Ivan Herrera | 9 | 92 | -1 | 93 | |||||
Brandon Pfaadt | 11 | 90 | -2 | 92 | |||||
Jackson Merrill | 12 | 89 | -2 | 91 | |||||
Luisangel Acuna | 11 | 90 | |||||||
Owen White | 13 | 88 | -1 | 89 | |||||
Emmanuel Rodriguez | 14 | 87 | -1 | 88 | |||||
Ceddanne Rafaela | 15 | 86 | -1 | 87 | |||||
Logan O’Hoppe | 7 | 94 | 9 | 85 | |||||
Carson Williams | 11 | 90 | 8 | 82 | -1 | 83 | |||
Andy Pages | 9 | 92 | 1 | 91 | 17 | 74 | -6 | 80 | |
Vaughn Grissom | 78 | ||||||||
Jonathan Aranda | 77 | ||||||||
Sal Frelick | 1 | 100 | 7 | 93 | -8 | Dropped | 26 | 75 | |
Gordon Graceffo | 24 | 77 | 4 | 73 | |||||
Alec Burleson | 25 | 76 | 4 | 72 | |||||
Jacob Berry | 71 | ||||||||
Cam Collier | 68 | ||||||||
Bo Naylor | 4 | 97 | 33 | 64 | 0 | 64 | |||
Tink Hence | 4 | 97 | 34 | 63 | |||||
Masyn Winn | 34 | 67 | 5 | 62 | |||||
Adael Amador | 28 | 73 | 15 | 58 | -1 | 59 | |||
Ezequiel Duran | 36 | 65 | 13 | 52 | -5 | 57 | |||
Gavin Stone | 34 | 67 | 44 | 57 | 1 | 56 | |||
Kevin Parada | 53 | ||||||||
Elijah Green | 52 | ||||||||
Pete Crow-Armstrong | 6 | 95 | 48 | 47 | 13 | 34 | -15 | 49 | |
Vinnie Pasquantino | 41 | 60 | 14 | 46 | -2 | 48 | |||
Edwin Arroyo | 52 | 49 | 2 | 47 | |||||
Termarr Johnson | 46 | ||||||||
Evan Carter | 40 | 61 | 18 | 43 | 0 | 43 | |||
Hunter Brown | 6 | 95 | 41 | 54 | 12 | 42 | |||
Jackson Holliday | 41 | ||||||||
Brooks Lee | 40 | ||||||||
James Wood | 36 | 65 | 26 | 39 | |||||
Colson Montgomery | 48 | 53 | 15 | 38 | |||||
Gavin Williams | 31 | 70 | 28 | 42 | 5 | 37 | |||
Drew Romo | 76 | 35 | 2 | 33 | -3 | 36 | |||
Andrew Painter | 5 | 96 | 39 | 57 | 19 | 38 | 5 | 33 | |
Ricky Tiedemann | 13 | 88 | 53 | 35 | 4 | 31 | |||
Brayan Bello | 4 | 97 | 49 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 1 | 23 | |
Druw Jones | 21 | ||||||||
Ezequiel Tovar | 75 | 26 | 9 | 17 | 3 | 14 | |||
Jackson Chourio | 69 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 2 | |||
Josh Winder | 19 | 82 | 13 | 69 | Grad. | ||||
Joey Wiemer | 7 | 94 | 22 | 72 | -29 | Dropped | |||
Yosver Zulueta | 28 | 73 | -28 | Dropped | |||||
Jhoan Duran | 21 | 80 | Grad. | ||||||
Xavier Edwards | 83 | -18 | Dropped | ||||||
Caleb Kilian | 2 | 99 | 15 | 84 | -17 | Dropped | |||
MacKenzie Gore | 56 | 45 | 30 | 15 | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Brice Turang | 7 | 94 | 13 | 81 | -20 | Dropped | |||
Matt McLain | 2 | 99 | 7 | 92 | -9 | Dropped | |||
Steven Kwan | 8 | 93 | -3 | 96 | Grad. | Grad. | |||
Spencer Strider | 3 | 98 | Grad. | Grad. |
May Movers
May was our most modest adjustment, as we had few big moves up or down the list.
Big Moves Up: Daniel Espino (+32), Max Meyer (+30), Kyle Harrison (+28), MacKenzie Gore (+56)
Big Moves Down: Austin Martin (-38), Nate Pearson (-37), Jordan Balazovic (-13), Jasson Dominguez (-14).
How Did We Do? Meyer and Espino both eventually were sidelined with injuries, but they have stayed pretty high on our Top 100 despite their injuries because of their talent. Harrison also has stuck around the top 50 ever since, so that seems so far like a solid move up. Gore was moved back on the Top 100 after a strong start. He served as a key part of the Juan Soto trade later in 2022, and is a member of the Nationals rotation this year.
As far as the moves down, all four of the prospects listed soon moved off the Top 100. Only Dominguez has returned so far. We may have been a tad hasty with Dominguez, who did rally to have a solid season, but the other three were all drops we’d definitely do again.
June Jumps
Big Jumps: Corbin Carroll (+15), Jordan Walker (+10), Jordan Lawlar (+16), Nolan Gorman (+12), Michael Harris (+24), Eury Perez (+27), Gunnar Henderson (+23), Michael Busch (+14), Elly De La Cruz (+11), Roansy Contreras (+28), Royce Lewis (+26), Kyle Harrison (+21), Curtis Mead (+18), Ryan Pepiot (+12), Gabriel Arias (+12), Carson Williams (+11), Adael Amador (+28), Ezequiel Duran (+36), Pete Crow-Armstrong (+48), Vinnie Pasquantino (+41), Evan Carter (+40), Gavin Williams (+31), Drew Romo (+76), Andrew Painter (+39), Ricky Tiedemann (+13), Brayan Bello (+49), Ezequiel Tovar (+75), Jackson Chourio (+69), Josh Winder (+19), MacKenzie Gore (+30), Brice Turang (+13).
Big Drops: Cade Cavalli (-11), Brennen Davis (-25), Noelvi Marte (-35), Matt Brash (-25), Austin Martin (-15), Nick Gonzales (-17), Shea Langeliers (-13), Kahlil Watson (-26), Cole Winn (-39), Tyler Freeman (-12), Brayan Rocchio (-12), Bryson Stott (-12), Korey Lee (-25), Luis Matos (-16), Orelvis Martinez (-18), Brandon Williamson (-21), Jarren Duran (-16), Blake Walston (-14), Heliot Ramos (-13).
How Did We Do: This is why we comprehensively update our Top 100 every month in-season. If you paid attention to our June 2022 Top 100 update, you got a sneak peak of our 2023 January Top 100 Prospects list.
Some of the big climbers would graduate before 2023 (Gorman, Harris, Bello, Pasquantino), but the makings of the top of our initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list are apparent here. The climbers included the No. 1 (Henderson), No. 2 (Carroll), No. 3 (Choruio), No. 4 (Walker), No. 5 (Painter), No. 7 (Perez), No. 8 (De La Cruz), No. 13 (Lawlar), No. 17 (Tovar), No. 20 (Williams) and No. 25 (Crow-Armstrong) prospects. There were another five climbers who slotted into the 26-50 range on the 2023 initial Top 100.
Chourio and Tovar both went from off of the list to inside the Top 50 in one jump. Roughly 10 months later, we have zero regrets. If you were reading Baseball America’s rankings, you got an early heads-up on young prospects with bright futures. At the time of this update, Chourio had less than a month in the full-season minors.
Some of the prospects we moved down did settle down and stick around for the rest of the year. After moving Marte significantly down this month, he didn’t move down again and moved up slightly over the rest of the season. But this also was a useful assessment of Gonzales, Watson, Martin, Lee and Ramos’ struggles. All would soon move off of the Top 100 and none have as of yet returned.
If we had to do it over again, Romo’s jump may have been a little much. He’s still a Top 100 Prospect now, but this jump meant we had to course correct a little in future updates.
I cannot find where we ranked Nick Lodolo in our June update. I believe this is a data entry issue, but if not, dropping him out completely from our May rankings before moving him up to 23 in our July rankings would be an issue. I feel reasonably confident that this was not actually the case.
July Jumbles
Moves Up: Diego Cartaya (+15), Taj Bradley (+27), Gunnar Henderson (+29), George Valera (+31), Max Meyer (+12), Michael Busch (+18), Elly De La Cruz (+41), Kyle Harrison (+24), Curtis Mead (+43), Ryan Pepiot (+23), Brandon Pfaadt (+11), Jackson Merrill (+12), Owen White (+13), Emmanuel Rodriguez (+14), Ceddanne Rafaela (+15), Andy Pages (+17), Gordon Graceffo (+24), Alec Burleson (+25), Bo Naylor (+33), Adael Amador (+15), Ezequiel Duran (+13), Gavin Stone (+44), Pete Crow-Armstrong (+13), Vinnie Pasquantino (+14), Edwin Arroyo (+52), Evan Carter (+18), Hunter Brown (+41), Colson Montgomery (+48), Gavin Williams (+28), Andrew Painter (+19), Ricky Tiedemann (+53), Brayan Bello (+24), Jackson Chourio (+22), Josh Winder (+13), Joey Wiemer (+22), Yosver Zulueta (+28), Jhoan Duran (+21), Caleb Kilian (+15), James Wood (+36), Masyn Winn (+34).
Moves Down: Tyler Soderstrom (-22), Jack Leiter (-13), Nick Yorke (-18), Jose Barrero (-43), Henry Davis (-11), Nick Gonzales (-34), Mick Abel (-10), Shea Langeliers (-16), Oswald Peraza (-15), Brady House (-37), Kahlil Watson (-14) Brayan Rocchio (-15), Luis Matos (-15), Orelvis Martinez (-12), Royce Lewis (-10), Ronny Mauricio (-16), Gabriel Arias (-22), Brice Turang (-20).
How Did We Do: This was another month of major movement, and most of it looks quite good with hindsight. Henderson, Cartaya, Bradley, De La Cruz, Mead, Merrill, Brown, Montgomery, Williams, Painter, Tiedemann and Chourio were all big leaps by prospects who kept climbing for our 2023 Top 100.
On the other end of the spectrum, the drops of House, Watson, Leiter and Yorke were strong hints that they wouldn’t crack our preseason Top 100 list in 2023.
Not every move looks as good in hindsight. Turang has hovered at the cusp of the Top 100 ever since (he’s back on now, but wasn’t in January). Soderstrom’s movement wasn’t an indicator of anything and Zulueta and Kilian’s moves up would soon be followed by equivalent moves down.
August Adjustments
Moves Up: Noelvi Marte (+13), Tyler Soderstrom (+11), Brayan Rocchio (+15), Luisangel Acuna (+11), Sal Frelick (+26), Tink Hence (+34), Hunter Brown (+12), James Wood (+26), Colson Montgomery (+15), Jackson Chourio (+18).
Moves Down: Shane Baz (-13), Jack Leiter (-30), Nick Yorke (-51), Henry Davis (-42), Nick Pratto (-10), Matthew Liberatore (-43), D.L. Hall (-10), Michael Busch (-10), Liover Peguero (-14), Cristian Hernandez (-22), Pete Crow-Armstrong (-15), Joey Wiemer (-29), Yosver Zulueta (-28), Xavier Edwards (-18), Caleb Kilian (-17).
How Did We Do: There were less big moves in August, as most of the adjustments were built around adding 2022 draftees to the Top 100, but there were a few significant changes to note. James Wood and Tink Hence’s big climbs were signs of more to come. Among the move downs, Leiter, Yorke and Hernandez were all steps toward dropping off the list, but for Liberatore and Crow-Armstrong they were indicative of nothing when you look to our January 2023 Top 100.
Here are some examples of where we may have been a little hasty with our moves or we got some noise in our data. Wiemer, Zulueta, Edwards and Kilian all dropped back off after jumping on the previous month. The addition of 2022 draftees for the first time didn’t help their chances of sticking around.
Final Summary
Overall, there seems to be plenty of value to updating monthly. While there is a little more noise that leads to some prospects moving up one month, down the next and up the following month, that’s actually quite limited, and the prospects who made big jumps, or big drops, were generally the ones we should have been highlighting for our readers.
We want to make sure that Baseball America readers are getting the best rankings and reports, updated more quickly and more accurately than anywhere else. In looking at our Top 100 movement, you have all the information you need to judge for yourself if we’re living up to that goal.
Comments are closed.