2023 MLB Mock Draft Version 1.0

1. Pirates — Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State (1) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: For me this pick was a pretty easy one given our current draft ranking, Crews’ track record as a player, tool set and production so far this season. He’s doing exactly what he was expected to do: mash. I’m concerned that with the Pirates picking at the top of the draft again in 2023 we will wind up with a similar conundrum at the top like we had in 2021, when there was no clear top player and instead a group of five or so who were all viewed among the top tier. That seems to be the case this year, albeit with four players instead of five. The Pirates might be as tricky to decipher as they were when they picked Henry Davis.

Scout’s Take: I had a tough time separating Crews and Wyatt Langford. They were actually closer than I expected when I started. They might have less separation than other top college hitters compared to the last few years. I think it is tough between those two. In the end I would have leaned with Crews at No. 1 as well because of the Langford injury but also with the expected differences in their defensive profile—even though I might give a slight lean towards Langford’s offensive upside. I think overall they will be similar offensive players but I think the upper-end outcome for Langford is a tick ahead with a bit of extra power, similar contact and maybe a slightly better eye than Crews.

2. Nationals — Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida (4) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: My understanding of the injury is that it’s not going to have any long-term issues. Missing out on the at-bats is the biggest downside and especially missing SEC pitching early on. I’m glad we got a chance to see a few games of Langford in center before his injury but I don’t think we’ll exit the spring with a great sense of his center field defense, which is one of the biggest remaining questions with his profile, especially relative to Crews. The prospect of a righthanded-hitting left fielder this high in the draft is a little daunting, but Langford is likely one of the best college position players we’ve seen in the last few drafts. In reality if I was in the second spot I would envision calling both Langford and Paul Skenes to get a sense of financial expectations because the difference in their talent isn’t large. 

Carlos’ Take: I’m glad you brought up the financial component here and shed some light on how those decisions are actually handled in a draft room. Even though we talk about how the money works in the draft each year I think it’s still worth reinforcing.

3. Tigers — Paul Skenes, RHP, Louisiana State (8) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: If you had left Langford on the board he would have been my pick here for the Tigers. I think adding a lower-risk, but still high-impact player would be good for them right now, though I am not going to pass up Skenes’ upside. Tennessee righty Chase Dollander is the other option for me in this spot, but so far Skenes has outpitched him and the stuff has looked just a bit more crisp, even if I prefer Dollander’s track record as a pitcher. Just a few weeks ago we were talking about Dollander as the consensus top pitcher in the class and here we are. Things change quickly in the draft! 

Scout’s Take: I entered the spring much like everyone else thinking Dollander was the front runner but I do think Skenes is probably ahead now. I think the command for Skenes is something we will continue to bear down on as an industry. Dollander is probably a bit better compared to Skenes there but the pure stuff is a tick higher with Skenes right now. Another thing with Skenes getting a bit of an edge is unlike Dollander, or much of the other first round competition, he might have a bit more developmental upside due to his two-way background. The breaking ball development with Skenes is really impressive over the course of the last year. Dollander’s breaking ball has not been quite as sharp yet this year, both in terms of performance and some of the pitch profiles.

4. Rangers — Chase Dollander, RHP, Tennessee (2) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: I thought it was a fairly clear-cut top four. Something of that is a byproduct of the calendar because the top high school candidates have yet to get going at all (in the case of Max Clark) or without a ton of track record yet (with Walker Jenkins) and I see no other high school contender. I thought there was a clear separation with the top four collegians and the next four college guys. Dollander compares favorably with several of the top college pitchers in recent classes. I’d take him over Rocker, Leiter and anyone else from the last two drafts. I’m looking to see how his slider trends the rest of the draft calendar as well as his changeup usage.  

Carlos’ Take: I am glad to hear you say that because that was my perception coming into this exercise and it’s only been reinforced now. Currently it feels like a good year to have a top-four pick. 

5. Twins — Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community HS (5) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: This is the highest the Twins have picked since 2017 when they took Royce Lewis with the first overall pick in the draft. Clark was the first name I considered here, but I also thought about Walker Jenkins and college infielders Jacob Gonzalez and Brayden Taylor. I think Clark has the best combination of defensive profile, track record of hitting, and all-around tools so he is the pick for me. I’ve heard some good things about his swing over the offseason so that’s maybe another small factor in the pick. 

Scout’s Take: It does seem like with Clark he had shown some improvements to the swing so everything you said there makes a lot of sense. 

6. A’s — Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Mississippi (3) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: Nobody is feeling the brunt of the draft lottery odds more so than Oakland right now given that it was in the No. 2 spot by record and then fell to sixth overall. Just look at how clearly defined the top group of four players is now and that talent gap difference. Definitely a tough year to have the draft lottery implemented. I feel good about the track record of hitting with Gonzalez. The swing mechanics questions are notable and there is probably a decent range of opinions on his defense at shortstop. Some have said he is a high probability of a lock at shortstop. I am not sure that I feel the same. He is good when he gets to balls, but I’m not sure about his quickness. It’s tough to figure it out with him because of his motor. Granted, the game comes easy to him and he is a natural athlete, so that is all in his favor. The whole profile is certainly appealing. 

Carlos’ Take: I am personally torn on Gonzalez’s defense overall. He played better than I expected him to last summer with Team USA and made some plays up the middle that I remember being a bit surprised on given the talk of his lack of range and quickness. He is pretty slow out of the box and maybe in the post-shift era that speed will matter much more for middle infielders. I can see him being a polarizing profile overall given swing itself and the variance in defensive evaluations within the industry. Like you mentioned though, his overall track record in college is impressive and there’s a good combination of bat-to-ball skills, power and a solid batting eye to like. 

7. Reds — Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick HS, Southport, N.C. (6) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: Since you took the other player I would have considered for this spot in Gonzalez I will go with Jenkins, who has a case for the best prep player in the country along with Clark. I think this actually works out reasonably well for the Reds because they have a ton of shortstops and third basemen in their system currently and while you never draft for need, maybe it’s nice that one of the best players available is in the outfield. Ever since I heard an Austin Meadows comp with Jenkins a while ago I have really liked it, and this is around the same place on the board that he went back in 2013. 

Scout’s Take: The only thing I would say about Meadows is I think the possible power upside for Jenkins might be a bit better than Meadows at the time. Maybe not the actual grades you have on them, but if it clicks on the upper end I think the power could be better for Jenkins because of the body and the bat speed. There are probably some intent questions, too. Meadows always looked good and was smooth but sometimes there were questions about him letting it loose. And maybe those exist with Jenkins as well but most of his questions were about the injury last year as opposed to his raw profile. I think that comp has a lot of merit overall, especially with how both players were unbelievably well-known by the time they were sophomores and true stars by the time they were juniors. 

8. Royals — Jacob Wilson, SS, Grand Canyon (7) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: I think the Royals, at least under their prior administration, might be a bit more drawn to someone who has a bit more traditional shortstop speed and actions than Wilson. They drafted Nick Loftin in 2020, so their preferences might’ve changed some, but Wilson’s overall skill set is one of the more defined ones in the draft class. He has good defense, plus or 70-grade instincts all around in addition to probably the best contact tool in the class. Some sneaky pop and power in batting practice to go with strong in-game performance and bloodlines.  

Carlos’ Take: We’ve talked a bit about how the talent of this year’s class compared to the previous two years. I wonder how a player like Wilson would compare to a player like Brooks Lee from a year ago. Lee went eighth overall but we also had him much closer to the top of the board in that class than we have with Wilson to this point. Both are high-contact infielders with a lot of conviction in their hit tools from smaller conferences. I guess Lee has a bit more impact than Wilson and Wilson has a bit more shortstop defense than Lee.  

Scout’s Take: You also have the family lineage with Wilson so that is also a nice similarity between the two. Those things and the speed questions. Neither guy really runs that much. Maybe a contributing factor with Lee was his previous lower half injuries but I think that is a strong player comparison.

9. Rockies — Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian (9) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: Perhaps I am personally high on Taylor but I think he fits here given the quality of his hit tool, his extremely advanced approach and the early-season performance he has shown so far this spring. I think there might be a few players on the board that have a bit more upside, but I also think Taylor is one of the highest-probability big leaguers in the class given my conviction in the offensive tools. I think there’s some solid power in the tank and I also think he’ll be a perfectly adequate third baseman. That feels like a top-10 pick to me. 

Scout’s Take: I would agree with you there. I think we are viewing him very similarly from an offensive standpoint. I might be a bit more skeptical about his defensive profile. I think it might be an uphill battle for him to remain at third due to his arm strength, his arm slot and some lower half agility questions. Those are all aspects to bear down on from here forward. But at the end of the day he has one of the best offensive profiles in the class and that doesn’t get too far.

10. Marlins — Hurston Waldrep, RHP, Florida (13) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: This is definitely a fun range of the board. I thought the improvement to Waldrep’s secondary stuff, specifically the breaking stuff, was what pushed him up here. He has always had a good ability to miss bats. His split-change is one of the best pitches in the college game, but the fact that he is now showing a plus breaking ball to go with it, too—I thought that was the separator here. There are some questions about his strike throwing as well, but the stuff is just so loud.

Carlos’ Take: I am curious how you would compare a guy like Waldrep here to the Marlins to a player like Max Meyer who the team took with the third overall pick in 2020. Obviously we have some hindsight bias to account for, but I wonder if Waldrep is simply a better pitching prospect than Meyer was at the time.

Scout’s Take: You probably feel better about the quality of secondary stuff from Meyer, maybe from a usability standpoint because it’s slider versus changeup and Meyer would flash a plus change as well. More a matter of their pitch mix. But I would give the control edge actually to Waldrep by a very slim margin in a starting role, though they’re similar. They are both good athletes but Meyer is the clear frontrunner there. I feel better about Waldrep getting through a lineup multiple times just given the way they’ve been used in their careers. Those guys are probably in a pretty similar sort of range.

11. Angels — Aidan Miller, 3B, Mitchell HS, New Port Richey, Fla. (10) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: This was a tricky pick. I think the board is quite wide open at this point and there are a number of players who could make sense here. Miller is dealing with a hand injury now, but I come back to his bat speed, hitting track record and power production. 

Scout’s Take: This was one of the bigger questions I had. Where does he fit? He probably would have been a tick lower for me or dropped down a few more spots due to the injury and some of the surrounding questions but not much more than the 15th pick because of his track record.

12. D-Backs — Enrique Bradfield, OF, Vanderbilt (11) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: There are few players in the draft class with a better and longer track record of hitting than Bradfield. Even though he hasn’t started well this year, his swing and miss and contact is similar to past years. His profile is not for everyone and is an outlier in today’s game. If he can somewhat approximate the power he demonstrated last year I think he doesn’t get out of the top 15 or so picks. There are few players you can count on being that sort of impact defender and baserunner. And those things are probably overstated when we think about most profiles but he is truly scale-setting in that regard and we might understate the separation between his traits and the rest of the class. I’m eager to see how the new base running rules in pro ball will impact action on the bases—if it further aides elite runners, he could benefit more because his combination of speed and instincts is truly exceptional. 

Carlos’ Take: This is probably the first pick that has surprised me a bit because of how slow Bradfield’s start has been, but it’s a good reminder that his profile is probably going to be quite polarizing throughout the draft process. I would imagine his range of opinions is quite a bit wider than most of the players we have talked about thus far. Perhaps it says something that we were both somewhat surprised by our last two picks.

13. Cubs — Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest (14) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: Even after seeing a bit of a middling start from Lowder last weekend, I think he has a pretty solid overall profile, a quality mix of three pitches and a great foundation of command and strike throwing. Yes, there is more upside to be found on the board here than Lowder, but there’s something to be said for a high probability profile as well, no?

Scout’s Take: This is probably the range of the draft where historically we have seen, for lack of a better term, a “flight to safety” with these sorts of profiles overall. Guys with lots of innings, great control—you feel good about the probability of being an MLB contributor even if it’s just a No. 4 starter. 

14. Red Sox — Kevin McGonigle, SS, Monsignor Bonner HS, Drexel Hill, Penn. (21) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: I wish I had more new info on him this spring but his season is just starting. He has one of the best hit tools in the high school class, which the Red Sox have seemingly prioritized in recent years at the top of the draft. If you start stacking up high school players by their hitting prowess he comes up pretty quick.

Carlos’ Take: I really like this player/team pairing and to your point it’s a demographic that Boston has loved. Its last three first-round picks? Mikey Romero, Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. The only problem here is McGonigle doesn’t hail from California!

15. White Sox — Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit HS, Portland, Ore. (15)
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: It’s always a bit easier taking on the risk of a high school righthander profile when you are not actually taking on the risk. I think Meyer is still the favorite to be the first prep pitcher off the board at this point, and this feels like the range that could happen in this year’s class, given the strength of the college ranks. The White Sox have also attacked the prep ranks more at the top of the draft in recent years after grabbing Colson Montgomery and Noah Schultz in the last two drafts.

Scout’s Take: This is the exact pick Mick Abel went in 2020 (to the Phillies) and Meyer probably fits in a similar range even if his resume isn’t quite as long as Abel’s was. Zooming out on their profiles, they’re similar and not just because they are both Oregon arms. 

16. Giants — Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest (19) 
Drafter: Scout

Carlos’ Take: I was curious which of the two college third basemen would come off the board after Brayden Taylor. Both Wilken and Morales have been off to strong starts so far this year and I go back-and-forth on who I prefer more, even though I might lean Morales.

Scout’s Take: Those were the next two guys for me: Wilken and Morales. I feel a bit better about Wilken’s defensive profile compared to last summer but he’s probably still a coin flip to remain at third base. I think the feet look a bit better. He still needs to work on his agility and change of direction because he takes a bit longer to get the ball out and over to first, but he clearly has the arm. It seems like there has been more power and greater offensive standards this year in college so he could be benefitting more than others but he’s on pace for more than 30 homers. If that pace continues, he probably goes in the top 20 picks. There was very little to separate him from Morales. Wilken still has some offensive concerns, both against breaking balls and outer half coverage with the open stride and hip drift. He has not made strides with his contact yet, even with his power production, but San Francisco could want to roll the dice on his power production.

17. Orioles — Colin Houck, SS, Parkview HS, Lilburn, Ga. (30) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: I’ve heard good feedback from the industry on Houck’s early performance this spring and he has the sort of tools and athletic profile that seem to fit in the middle of the first round. This is my biggest “reach” in terms of current BA ranking, but I think it’ll seem more in line when our next update rolls out. I am curious if you think this is too high. 

Scout’s Take: He has looked good so far this spring. I think he does fit in this sort of range. Right now it could be towards the higher end, maybe not the peak of his range, but he fits around here. It’s a good look.

18. Brewers — Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami (16) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: There were some team aspects in play here where it seems like the Brewers probably put more emphasis on exit velocities than other teams and that is an area where Morales has shined so far, having made a jump this year. He has the raw tools to remain at third base to go with a plus arm. The industry has seen so much of Morales over the last five years—going back to when he played for Team USA as an underclassman in high school—that there’s a lot of comfort with him as a player in this range of the draft. 

Carlos’ Take: Nice to see both Morales and Wilken go off the board so close to each other given how difficult it is for me to separate them in my own mind. 

19. Rays — Tommy Troy, 2B, Stanford (31) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: At this spot I thought about taking Matt Shaw, but ultimately I am going to go for the college middle infielder who is off to a strong offensive start and that’s Troy. Perhaps there are less exciting raw tools here compared to Shaw, but I think Troy is just an advanced natural hitter and that could be something the Rays like in this range.

Scout’s Take: I agree with what you said here about Troy versus Shaw getting closer by moving in the opposite directions. Both probably fit in this range.

20. Blue Jays — Matt Shaw, SS, Maryland (12) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: I leaned towards Shaw once Troy was off the board after thinking about the track record. I think he seems like a Blue Jay in some ways with the way they end up evaluating college infielders. We have seen that over the course of the last five or six years. He hasn’t met expectations on either side of the ball yet this spring. His arm hasn’t looked as strong and will be something to monitor to figure out if he can go out at shortstop or if he needs to quickly move to second base in pro ball. There are so few guys who can offer that power/speed combination in the middle infield so that was the safe harbor for him here despite the slow start.

Carlos’ Take: I am curious if you would have taken Troy at this spot if I had not taken him a pick before.

Scout’s Take: If we were team agnostic I would take Troy if he was on the board, but due to my perception of team fit I would have still leaned Shaw.

21. Cardinals — Bryce Eldridge, 1B, Madison HS, Vienna, Va. (22) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: We’re in the range where things open up but I still like the talent pool quite a bit. Eldridge is a legit two-way talent but in the spirit of a mock draft I am selecting him here as a hitter first and trusting a great Cardinals’ development group to make the most out of his impressive raw tools.

Scout’s Take: Over the last few years, the Cardinals have shown they’re not afraid to take bigger high school hitters with long levers, guys like (Jordan) Walker and (Joshua) Baez. 

Carlos’ Take: Do you prefer Eldridge as a hitter or pitcher at this point?

Scout’s Take: Right now I would probably lean towards hitter with him.

22. Mariners — Will Sanders, RHP, South Carolina (17) 
Drafter: Scout

Carlos’s Take: I was wondering when he would come off the board. Part of me is a bit concerned about how the fastball continues to play and the hits and runs he’s given up so far this year.

Scout’s Take: The raw metrics aren’t great, but the velocity is up a bit. The fastball profile has improved a bit, too. The sharpness of his breaking stuff has improved a bit as well. I think this is kind of the range where we see this sort of profile become more attractive. We talked a bit about Lowder, and Lowder is certainly better, but both have higher probabilities to remain in the rotation along with questions about their total upside. Michael McGreevy went in the same range in 2021. McGreevy was a better strike thrower but his pitch profiles were a lot worse than Sanders. The body and delivery is pretty similar actually overall. A stuff advantage (for Sanders) versus a command advantage (for McGreevy) and those guys come out pretty close. Even though he’s given up some hits this year, his strikeout and walk rates have been solid. 

23. Guardians — Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS, Dover, Fla. (28) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: It’s simple. I see a young player that makes sense on talent with the Guardians picking and I select that player. Nimmala was my snap decision here, though after taking him I thought about guys like Florida prep righthander Charlee Soto or another high school shortstop like Colt Emerson—both of whom seem to have traits that I link with Cleveland’s draft tendencies. Ultimately, I still feel like Nimmala goes off the board somewhere close to Houck.

Scout’s Take: He fits in this range for the reasons you mentioned. Probably someone who has a bigger difference in the high-end range compared to the industry average relative to other guys around him. The draft usually ends up where the highest bidder comes away with the player so given that he probably fits in the 20-35 range somewhere.

24. Braves — Travis Sykora, RHP, Round Rock (Texas) HS (24) 
Drafter: Scout

Carlos’ Take: I was curious which high school pitcher would come off the board next, whether that was Charlee Soto or Sykora or Thomas White. 

Scout’s Take: Soto and Sykora are really close. The profile is still similar to last summer. He has looked good. The body has looked a bit tighter, the delivery a bit better, especially where there is less effort out front. He’s been more stable on the front side so you feel a bit better about the command and chance to start. The stuff is obviously pretty ridiculous with a chance for two plus secondaries as the slider/cutter has continued to tick up and he’s also still showing high-end velocities. For a risk-seeking team he could go earlier than this, but kind of looking around and seeing who was available and how the Braves last year went far and away the heaviest on high school pitching I wondered if they would continue that and Sykora could fit that mold. Even though the guys they took were smaller bodied compared to Sykora. 

25. Padres — Charlee Soto, RHP, Reborn Christian Academy, Kissimmee, Fla. (33) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: Similar to how you talked about the Braves being active on the high school pitching front a year ago, the Padres were fine using their first two picks on Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling. I think they would also be interested in a player with upside like Soto’s, though I do wonder if maybe they would want a faster mover given their competitive window. I suppose the same could have been said a year ago, though, and they still took a prep pitcher coming off surgery in the first round. 

Scout’s Take: Agreed on Padres. I think that works really well with Soto and with what San Diego has done.

26. Yankees — Kyle Teel, C, Virginia (32) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: I think Teel could continue to move up boards. If he keeps this up I could see him getting into the teens. The power profile will be a good litmus test for how high he can go. The defense has shown well and the arm strength has never been in question for him. There are some questions about the receiving. If that stock moves up and if he continues to control the zone like this I could see him getting to the same range as Matt Thaiss in 2016, and his defensive profile is definitely better than that.

Carlos’ Take: The Angels picked Thais with the 16th pick out of Virginia. That’ll be an interesting player comparison throughout the spring for Teel. He’s definitely been raking and should have the added benefit of competing against a weaker catching class than we have seen compared to the last few years.

27. Phillies — Roch Cholowsky, SS, Hamilton HS, Chandler, Ariz. (29) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: I don’t have a strong feeling with this pick. I mostly see players like Houck and Nimmala going off the board and think a guy like Cholowsky fits near them and is a solid back-of-the-first round talent. I love the glove and the athlete.

Scout’s Take: The profile has been pretty consistent to what he showed last summer overall. Just a really good player across the board.

28. Astros — Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Academy, Andover, Mass. (18) 
Drafter: Scout

Scout’s Take: Another player where there is no real new information this spring because his season is just starting. But on talent and draft resume, he probably deserves to be a first-round pick. I’m not sure if I would view the Astros as a front runner for a guy like this, while also acknowledging we have a new regime there and I’m not sure how that changes what they do. But Dana (Brown) is probably a bit more risk-seeking with his player preferences and the Northeast ties are notable. He’s probably just a first-round talent unless we hear otherwise this spring. I think Houston could prefer a college player just based on track record and its competitive window. 

Carlos’ Take: I do love the idea of the Astros taking a player like White given their track record in pitching development. He has massive stuff from the left side and if he can just get a bit more consistent with the command has as much upside as any high school player in this class I would think.

29. Mariners — Juaron Watts-Brown, RHP, Oklahoma State (35) 
Drafter: Carlos

Carlos’ Take: We’re in the range now where I am seeing a few names who I am surprised we didn’t take in the first round. Tennessee shortstop Maui Ahuna is one of those, but he also got a bit of a later start to the season and Watts-Brown has been quite good. I feel like pitchers with his athleticism and stuff move up with performance and so far he’s posted every week.

Scout’s Take: That makes a ton of sense. He is right in this range. I could have seen Cade Kuehler in this range, too. I think he probably would have been the next college pitcher off the board in my mind. If not for the regime change with the Astros I would think his profile of strikes and stuff would match very well with Houston. I think they have drafted less on present command because they seem to think they can teach command more than other teams.