Joel Guzman Stats & Scouting Report

AB	56
AVG	.232
OBP	.306
SLG	.321
HR	0

Full name Irvin Joel Guzman
Born 11/24/1984 in Quisqueya, Dominican Republic
Profile Ht.: 6'7" / Wt.: 225 / Bats: R / Throws: R
School Liceo Eugenio Maria De Hostos
Debut 06/01/2006

Top Rankings

Organization Prospect Rankings

Once one of the most coveted prospects in the minors, Guzman did little in his first full season in the Rays system to indicate that he might live up to his previous projections. Signed for a Dominican-record $2.25 million in 2001, Guzman and outfield prospect Sergio Pedroza came to Tampa Bay in a July 2006 trade that sent Julio Lugo to the Dodgers. Guzman has a full toolbox, but he fails to get the most from his talent because he doesn't make adjustments. He doesn't play with much energy and displays an apathetic approach to improving his skills, particularly in controlling the strike zone. He has plus-plus raw power and hit several tape-measure shots for Durham, but he has topped 16 homers just once in six pro seasons. He still struggles with hard stuff on the inner half and remains a tease at the plate. For his size, he's a very good athlete and runs well. A shortstop early in his pro career, Guzman tried to make the move to the outfield but shifted back to the infield at third base last season. The position suits him, as he has quick reactions, relatively soft hands and a strong arm. If he can show some maturity and improve his game, Guzman has a chance to play in the big leagues for a long time. Otherwise, he'll be on the list of classic underachievers.
The Dodgers signed Guzman for a Dominican-record $2.25 million in 2001, and he rated as their top prospect after 2004. He leveled off for the next two seasons before Los Angeles traded him and outfield prospect Sergio Pedroza to the Rays for Julio Lugo at the trade deadline. Primarily a shortstop before 2006, Guzman split time between the outfield, first and third base in Triple-A. Few minor leaguers can match his raw power. His hands work well and stay inside of the ball, and he's particularly adept at hitting low pitches a long way. He remains very athletic and agile despite his increased size. His arm strength is above average and more than enough for right field. Guzman has hit just 31 homers over the last two seasons. His best chance at playing time with Tampa Bay is at first base, and he'll have to unleash his power to stick there. He struggles with inside pitches and never has been very selective. He seemed to grow frustrated at the lack of big league opportunity with the Dodgers. The Rays will use spring training to determine where he fits best in 2007.
Signed for a club- and Dominican-record $2.25 million in 2001, Guzman used a breakout 2004 season to rank atop this list a year ago. He wasn't as consistent in 2005, teasing the Dodgers with potential he has yet to fully achieve. Yet he more than held his own and batted .316 during Jacksonville's playoff run. Guzman's hitting ability and power are well-above-average. He keeps his hands inside the ball well and uncorks tape-measure blasts when he makes contact. He's a dangerous low-ball hitter. A good athlete, he has a plus arm and average speed. Guzman's pitch recognition and plate discipline still need improvement, and like most big players he has a hole on the inner half. He lacks first-step quickness and his defensive actions are too long, which eventually will prompt a move from shortstop. He saw time at third base in 2005, but right field is his likely destination. With a strong spring, Guzman could win a cornerinfield job in 2006, though a full year in Triple-A might be the best thing for his development. The Dodgers' signing of Rafael Furcal further reinforced the notion that Guzman isn't long for shortstop.
Guzman's physical ability has been lauded since he signed for a club- and Dominican-record $2.25 million as a 16-year-old. Following two inconsistent seasons, he made significant progress last year turning his potential into performance. He was rated the No. 1 prospect in the high Class A Florida State League and ranked No. 2 in the Double-A Southern League. At the Futures Game in July, he turned heads with his power display during batting practice at Minute Maid Park. Guzman's maturity was questioned when he clashed with his low Class A manager Dann Bilardello early in 2003, but the Dodgers were pleased with his makeup and work ethic in 2004. Guzman's affluent background--his mother is a teacher and his father is a lawyer in the Dominican Republic--has aided his development as he communicates well with teammates and absorbs instruction. Guzman might best be described as a manchild. He has as much offensive upside as almost any prospect in the minors, drawing tremendous raw power from his 6-foot-6, 225-pound frame. Last year he made adjustments at the plate to help translate his batting-practice blasts into similarly prodigious homers during games. He made strides with his pitch recognition, which hampered him during his first two seasons, and stayed back on offspeed stuff better. Guzman has remarkable plate coverage and is learning to drive the ball out of all parts of the park. He does a tremendous job of staying inside the ball and keeping his hands ahead of the barrel. He generates exceptional bat speed. His approach is similar to Vladimir Guerrero's in that Guzman is aggressive in all counts. Defensively, he features a plus-plus arm and soft, easy hands. He has good actions and makes smooth transitions around the bag. While he almost certainly will outgrow the middle infield, scouts grade his overall defensive package now as average to slightly above-average for a shortstop. Guzman's future playing weight figures to be somewhere near 250 pounds, which will necessitate a position change. His range and speed project as below-average for a big league shortstop. His instincts, athleticism and arm strength will allow him to move to a corner infield or outfield spot. With prospects James Loney (first base) and Andy LaRoche (third base) working their way up the ladder, the Dodgers likely will put Guzman in right field. He swings and misses too frequently, though his power numbers help justify his lofty strikeout totals. Though he has improved his pitch recognition, he still has a tendency to allow situations to dictate his approach. For instance, he often chases pitches when he's trying to come through with runners in scoring position. Despite being just 19, Guzman answered every challenge Los Angeles threw at him in 2004, including a promotion to Double-A. He likely will open the season back at Jacksonville and would benefit from at least another full season in the minors. With patience and another year of refinement, Guzman could be ready to contribute in Los Angeles by 2006.
When Guzman signed for a Dominican-record $2.25 million bonus in 2001, he was showered with hyperbole, and not just from the Dodgers. But he hasn't made the immediate impact a typical can't-miss prospect would in the lower levels of the minors. Guzman received a promotion to high Class A last year not on merit but solely because of a conflict between him and South Georgia manager Dann Billardello. Los Angeles hoped the change of environment would help motivate him. It's easy to forget he won't turn 20 until after the 2004 season, but he needs to mature. Guzman offers an intriguing package of plus raw tools, including well above-average raw power and plus arm strength. After working with Dominican instructor Antonio Bautista and roving hitting instuctor Bob Mariano, he has shown significant progress staying back against breaking balls, though they still give him trouble. He's a free swinger who swings and misses too frequently to take advantage of his immense power potential. Guzman is quickly outgrowing shortstop, and it's only a matter of time before he shifts to third base or even first base. The Dodgers should slow his development down and let him experience an extended period of success this year in Class A.
Coming off a one-year ban in the Dominican Republic for illegally signing Adrian Beltre, Los Angeles outbid 20 teams to sign Guzman for $2.25 million, a club record and the biggest bonus ever for a player from that nation. The Dodgers didn't have a first-round pick in 2001 and viewed Guzman as the equivalent. Guzman exhibits rare light-tower power in batting practice. He has the potential for five above-average tools, though his only present pluses are arm strength and raw pop. He has the bat speed and strength to develop well above-average game power in time. Guzman has yet to adjust to breaking pitches. He bails and his knees buckle at the sight of the slightest wrinkle. He needs to learn to trust his hands. Most scouts question whether he'll have the quickness to stay at shortstop and think a move to third base is on the horizon. Guzman is still immature at times. While the Dodgers have to keep him motivated, they won't hasten his timetable. It might be 2006 before he makes a big league appearance, but the end result could be special.
The Dodgers wasted little time returning to the Dominican Republic after being barred for a full year as punishment for their illegal signing of Adrian Beltre. Los Angeles outbid 20 teams and inked Guzman last July 2 to a $2.25 million bonus, the largest ever given to a Dominican player. Guzman is a potential five-tool talent whom the Dodgers compare to Alex Rodriguez. An outstanding athlete, he has a projectable body and plus power from the right side of the plate. For his age, he has an advanced knowledge of the strike zone. Guzman speaks fluent English and shows a tremendous aptitude and thirst to improve his game. He has yet to make his pro debut and is several years away from the majors. It remains to be seen how he'll adjust to professional pitchers who are significantly older than he is, though the Dodgers aren't worried. Guzman will be moved slowly during the early stages of his development. He's expected to begin 2002 in extended spring training before moving to the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League in June. He's probably at least five years away from the majors.

Minor League Top Prospects

Guzman has yet to duplicate his breakout 2004 season, and the Dodgers finally decided to use him in a deadline deal for Julio Lugo in July. His days as a shortstop have come to an end, and is future now appears to be in the outfield or first base, with third base also a possibility. Guzman still stands out from a physical standpoint, as he's a 6-foot-6, 250-pounder loaded with athleticism. He still needs to tighten his strike zone and add more defensive polish at his new positions, but he has tape-measure power, above-average arm strength and solid speed. "I like his size and power potential," DeFrancesco said. "The length of his swing has to be shortened, though, in order to survive in the big leagues. I see him as a first baseman. He'd be a nice big target over there with above-average athleticism for the position."
Managers had more to say about Guzman than any other player in the Southern League. One of the minors' most recognizable players because of his huge frame and the $2.25 million signing bonus he received at age 16, he has undeniable talent but draws criticism for his perceived nonchalance on the field. Some managers called him bored and lackadaisical, while others thought the game just comes easily to him. "He's not a real talker in the infield. He's just a guy who goes out and tries to play his position," Jacksonville manager John Shoemaker said. "He's got arm strength for a shortstop, but his actions for a shortstop are long. Guzman has a lot of pride. There have been times this year he has struggled, but he has countered that." Guzman put up solid all-around numbers, and he figures to hit more home runs as he shortens his swing and makes better use of his enormous raw power. He lacks range and is simply too big to stay at shortstop, but he has more than enough bat to be a star as a corner infielder or outfielder.
Guzman sightings were almost like UFO reports. He arrived in mid-July after opening the year in high Class A, so many managers and scouts didn't see him. Those who didn't could hardly believe the reports of a 6-foot-6 shortstop. The reports are true, but no one expects him to stay at short even though he's an adequate player there now and moves well for his size. Some observers said he could play third base, while others say his actions are too long for the infield and would like to see him in right field. He has the arm for either of those positions. Wherever he plays, Guzman's bat will make him a star. He's learning the strike zone, but scouts in particular say his bat will be special, with scary power. He can already drive the ball out to the opposite field and will have power to all fields. One scout compared him to Juan Gonzalez. "This guy has loads of talent," Mobile manager Gary Jones said. "He's going to be a big-time hitter. The whole package is definitely there to be a run producer."
He may have been one of the youngest players in the league at age 19, but Guzman looked like a man among boys. A lot of that had to do with his 6-foot-6 frame, though his work at the plate also spoke volumes. Guzman was overmatched in a 62-game stint with Vero Beach a year ago, batting .246-5-24. This season, he showed great raw power, the ability to recognize and hit breaking balls, and the aptitude to turn on good fastballs. "He was over his head last year," Lakeland manager Gary Green said. "This year, he caught up and passed this league." Though he's extremely tall for a shortstop, Guzman is a smooth defender who makes all the routine plays and has a plus arm. His slightly below-average speed and average quickness limit his range, so he likely will end up at third base before long. He might even be a candidate for the big league club next spring if Adrian Beltre leaves via free agency.
As a 6-foot-4 shortstop with power potential, Guzman draws inevitable and unfair comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. At just 17, Guzman is still adjusting to being away from his native Dominican Republic for the first time--though he speaks fluent English. Guzman has good hands and the arm strength to make plays up the middle and deep in the hole, but lacked the range of some of the league's other middle infielders. Some managers said he looks as if he's coasting at times and not giving his all in the field. Another sees Guzman more as a third baseman. Guzman has tremendous power potential at the plate, launching 430-foot moonshots in batting practice, but has yet to show it in a game. His bat is quick though his swing can get a little long. "Because of his age, he has had the type of year we expected," Bilardello said. "At times you see the ability, times where you just go, 'Wow!' But being so young, the consistency isn't there yet. Once he gets that, you'll see a much better player."