2022 Minor League Rule 5 Draft Preview V 2.0

 

Allan Winans, RHP, Mets (Selected by Braves)

A 17th-round senior sign in 2018 out of Campbell, Winans was 2-3, 1.72 with a .145 average against and a 0.81 WHIP between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton. He uses a slider-heavy four-pitch mix. His fastballs (four-seam and two-seam) have below-average velocity (88-92 mph). He avoids barrels more than he misses bats.

Nick Hernandez, RHP, Astros

An eighth-round pick out of Houston in 2016, Hernandez was quite effective at Double-A Corpus Christi in 2021. He held opponents to a .147 batting average this year with just 28 hits allowed in 56 innings. Like many relievers, he relies heavily on his slider. He pairs the slider with a fastball with high ride and a low vertical approach that plays well above his low-90s velocity. His low-80s slider has cutter shape and above-average velocity. His changeup is a good pitch on its own, with over 10 mph of separation from his fastball. He infrequently uses a sweepy curveball, but it flashes good shape despite below-average command.

Devin Conn, RHP, Astros

Conn is another undersized (5-foot-11) righthander who went in the later rounds of the 2018 draft—19th round out of Nova Southeastern (Fla.). Conn lacks velocity, which ultimately may lead to him not getting picked, but his pitch shape and pitch mix work well together. He features a low-90s two-seam fastball with heavy sinking action and arm-side run. He pairs that with a trio of secondaries: a high-70s sweeping slider, a high-80s cutter and a high-70s curveball with two-plane break. His slider stands above the rest of his arsenal with nearly 18 inches of sweep on average and almost entirely horizontal break. While not a plus whiff-inducing pitch, he generates weak contact and it plays well off his sinker and cutter. His curveball shows promise with more depth and downer break than his slider. It’s used primarily as a putaway pitch. What Conn lacks in velocity and whiff-inducing ability he makes up for with pitch shape and command. He has an unusual profile but the performance and characteristics clearly have upside. 

Braden Webb, RHP, Brewers

The Brewers 2016 third-round pick out of South Carolina, Webb spent the entirety of 2021 in the bullpen for Double-A Biloxi. While the results were pedestrian (4.59 ERA, 1.43 WHIP over 49 innings), Webb missed bats at a high rate (31.2%) and featured four pitches with interesting characteristics. His four-seam fastball was hit hard, but it sits at 94 mph and touches 98 mph, with plus ride and a flat approach angle. He pairs the four-seam with a hard cutter in the high 80s, a downer curveball with serious depth in the mid 70s and a mid-80s changeup that flashes plus consistently. The changeup is Webb’s bread and butter as the pitch generates whiffs at an elite rate (51.5%) while controlling contact. Unfortunately, Webb struggles to find the zone, and his big stuff will often play down. The former Gamecock is older at 26 years of age, but offers some upside if he can smooth out his below-average command. 

 

Matt Brill, RHP, Diamondbacks (selected by Nationals)

An unbelievably high batting average on balls in play (.391) and a below-average strand rate (66.4%) masked some of the positives of Brill’s 2021 season and his ability. He mixes a trio of pitches led by a high-80s changeup he sells with good arm speed that plays off of his high-90s four-seam fastball. Brill, a 12th-round pick out of Appalachian State in 2017, throws a hard low-to-mid-80s curveball with above-average spin that limits hard contact and generates whiffs at a similarly high rate to his changeup. Brill is rare in that his high-90s fastball is his least effective pitch by a wide margin. His ability to command and generate positive outcomes with his secondaries could make him intriguing despite poor statistics in 2021. 

Gabriel Rodriguez, LHP, Braves (selected by Rockies)

The ability to throw strikes has escaped Rodriguez up to this point, but his loud two-pitch mix may compel an organization that believes it can hone his poor command. A 31st-round pick of the Braves in 2018, Rodriguez sits 95 mph and touches as high as 99 mph with his four-seam fastball. The pitch features elite vertical movement (over 19 inches of induced vertical break) and misses bats at an elite rate (38.7% whiff), but it was hit fairly hard leading to below-average results overall. While his fastball accounts for nearly 75% of his usage, he does have a strong secondary in his tight, mid-80s slider. A gyro-style slider thrown with above-average velocity, the pitch misses bats at an absurd rate, generating whiffs on more than 60% of swings. His walk rate was outrageous (12.9 BB/9 in 2021), but he’s just 22 years of age and has closer-level stuff. Well, except for the 20 control and command.

Kyle Marman, RHP, Guardians 

Cleveland has a type, and to an extent Marman fits that. A 13th-round pick out of Florida Atlantic in 2018, Marman is a higher-slot righthander. He likes to work up and down in the strike zone with his fastball and curve. Marman’s overhand slot allows his fastball to generate elite ride (greater than 19 inches of induced vertical break) and his curveball to generate great depth and drop (over -15 inches of induced vertical break). He pairs those with a mid-80s slider with cutter shape that he uses interchangeably with his curveball. The results were poor for Marman this season (4-0, 5.85 with a 1.65 WHIP in 20 innings with Double-A Akron), but he has intriguing fastball shape and velocity (sits 93-94 mph) with two secondaries that miss bats. 

Skylar Arias, LHP, Guardians 

A 24th-round pick out of Tallahassee (Fla.) JC in 2016, Arias was an extremely effective reliever in 2019 in stops at Low-A Lake County and High-A Lynchburg. His control took a big step back in 2021, as he walked 35 in 40.1 innings with Double-A Akron, but the quality of his stuff remains intriguing. Arias deploys a trio of pitches in his low-90s fastball, low-80s slider and low-to-mid-80s changeup. He has an unusual four-seam fastball that’s heavy with side spin, but lacks hop, moving almost like a sinker from a flat vertical approach angle. This allows the pitch to play above his below-average velocity. His slider is far and away his go-to swing-and-miss offering, with a whiff rate above 50% despite accounting for a quarter of his usage. From a shape perspective his changeup may be his most intriguing pitch. It sits 82 mph with average velocity separation from his fastball. He does an excellent job of killing the lift on the pitch, which gives it plenty of tumble. It also has hellacious run. Arias has an unusual pitch mix for a lefty with a trio of unique pitch shapes. 

Ruben Garcia, RHP, Tigers (selected by Astros)

Garcia’s fastball has an incredibly unusual look at 95-97 mph with more side spin and run than vertical break. The shape plays up due to his extremely low release height and flat approach angle. He deploys just two pitches, and his mid-80s slider is more of a cement mixer. He leans more on the fastball for whiffs. Garcia was 2-2, 4.15 with a .221 opponent average and 11.5 K/9 between High-A West Michigan and Double-A Erie. Due to his unique analytical characteristics, it would be surprising if Garcia went unpicked in the draft.

Jim Haley, INF, Rays

Haley is coming off of a very disappointing 2021 season, but in 2019 he hit .282/.329/.443 between High-A Charlotte and Double-A Montgomery. He played everywhere around the diamond other than right field and catcher in 2021, making him a potentially useful utilityman with upper-level minor league experience.

Nolan Hoffman, RHP, Mariners (selected by Orioles)

A true sidearmer, Hoffman has long been an effective reliever going back to his days at Texas A&M. A fifth-round pick of the Mariners in 2018, Hoffman went 1-2, 3.53 between stints at Low-A Modesto and High-A Everett in 2021. Hoffman is able to work east and west in the strike zone with his heavy arm-side running arsenal. He pairs a low-90s two-seam fastball with true natural sink with a hard-running changeup, that despite some of the heaviest run in the minors (greater than 16 inches of run) still manages to land in the zone 60% of the time. A two-pitch reliever who gives you a unique look for an inning at a time with groundball-heavy stuff, Hoffman is especially effective against righthanded hitters, as could be expected for a low-slot sidearmer.

Tyler Frank, 2B, Rays

A second-round pick out of Florida Atlantic in 2018, Frank has struggled with a shoulder injury that cost him most of the 2019 season and all of the 2021 season. That means he’s played less than 70 games as a pro since he was drafted. Because of his shoulder injury, Frank has now switched to hitting lefthanded in his attempts to stay healthy and get back on the field.

 

 

 

Nathan Witt, RHP, Rays

The Rays are likely to be one of the teams who will be most plundered during the MiLB Rule 5 draft. A 17th-round pick of the Dodgers out of Michigan State in 2018, Witt was acquired by the Rays in the Casey Sadler trade. He has had poor results so far (1-4, 8.78 between three levels in 2021), but he also does have a big arm. Witt is one of the hardest throwers available in this year’s MiLB Rule 5 draft, with a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and has touched 100 mph. He also has a promising slider. 

Trey Cumbie, LHP, Rays 

Cumbie struck out 13.2 batters per nine innings and held opponents to a .198 average working as a reliever with Low-A Charleston and High-A Bowling Green in 2021. A 13th-round pick out of Houston in 2018, Cumbie has the extreme carry (induced vertical break) many teams covet. Combine that with a flat approach angle and Cumbie gets swings and misses with his fastball despite its modest 88-91 mph velocity. He also spins a quality curveball.

Kenny Rosenberg, LHP, Rays (selected by Angels)

Rosenberg had success at the upper levels of the minors in 2021, finishing the season at Triple-A Durham, where he threw the majority of his 42 innings of work. He went 4-1, 2.81 overall with solid control, plenty of strikeouts (59) and the ability to retire righties and lefties. A three-pitch reliever (fastball/slider/changeup) who gets plenty of carry on his low-90s fastball, Rosenberg is a pretty plug-and-play option for a team looking to bolster their Triple-A bullpen and he could work his way into an up-and-down role.

Brian Keller, RHP, Yankees (selected by Red Sox)

Keller split time between starting and relieving at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in 2021. His control was a big issue as a starter (29 walks in 30.1 innings). It wasn’t great as a reliever either (17 walks in 25 innings), but he gave up very little hard contact as a reliever, so it generally worked for him. Keller works up and down in the strike zone with a four-seam 91-95 mph fastball and a downer curveball, but he also can mix in a slider and cutter. His upper-level experience could make him useful for a team looking for pitching depth.

Liam Jenkins, RHP Guardians

The Guardians’ deep farm system means they can’t protect everyone, and Jenkins is another example of that. Jenkins features a plus curveball that was nearly unhittable in 2021. While the pitch has just pedestrian shape, Jenkins arm slot and release play up the pitch’s deception. His primary pitch is a four-seam fastball with plus induced vertical break sitting 95 mph, touching as high as 99 mph. Much like the aforementioned Kyle Marman, Jenkins is another Cleveland pitching prospect with a high slot, higher release point fastball. While this lends itself to efficient shape it can also be easier to pick up out of the hand. For this reason, a new organization may look to increase usage of Jenkins fearsome curveball. Jenkins did not pitch after July because of an as-yet-undisclosed injury, so that could affect whether he gets picked.

Ernie De La Trinidad, OF, Twins 

A former 19th round pick of the Diamondbacks back in 2017, De La Trinidad was acquired by the Twins in the trade that sent Eduardo Escobar to Arizona. The left handed-hitting outfielder hit .266/.344/.415 with a 105 wRC+ for Double-A Wichita in 2021. It’s a contact over power profile with an aggressive contact-first mentality. De La Trinidad makes this approach work due to above-average bat-to-ball skills and average plate discipline. Despite below-average power production, De La Trinidad flashes sneaky pop as well, touching 110 mph on his max exit velocity in 2021. In the field, he’s a corner outfielder who doesn’t play center field. He’s a below-average defender but solid enough to handle either corner effectively with an average or better arm. 

Carlos De La Cruz, OF, Phillies

 While on the surface the numbers don’t look like much, 6-foot-8 outfielders with plus raw power on-base ability are rare. While contact is an issue for De La Cruz, he showed improvement in that area as 2021 wore on, culminating in a strong 17-game performance in High-A. His power is prodigious with max exit velocities exceeding 112 mph, consistently elevating and making loud contact when he actually connects. His approach is below-average and his walk rate is not in line with a typical three-true-outcome hitter, which might be more important to a profile of this type than even a higher rate of contact. On the plus side, De La Cruz is a surprisingly good athlete and runner, manning right field for the majority of his 2021 campaign. The question is, will a team take a gamble on De La Cruz’s power upside?  

Alex Destino, OF, White Sox

A three-year starter at South Carolina, Destino has slugged 38 home runs across his last two minor league seasons while producing above-average lines. He’s yet to play above High-A and he turned 26 in October, but there’s an above-average approach and above-average game power. Destino’s max exit velocities exceed 111 mph and he gets to it in games consistently. He’s a below-average contact hitter, but does a good job of pitch recognition and works deep into counts. Defensively he is limited to an outfield corner but he’s been an average defender in left field throughout his career. While the clock is ticking on Destino, many teams could use an org-guy with above-average lefty power. 

Robert Gonzalez, OF, Rangers 

Signed by the Rangers in July 2017, Gonzalez turned 20 in this summer while producing a strong offensive season in the Dominican Summer League. The outfielder hit .247/.426/.325 stealing 23 bases on 25 attempts. While his power is poor, he’s a plus-contact hitter with very strong on-base skills. Gonzalez’s strongest skill might be his defense, as he ranked highest among available outfielders in outfield outs above average. He spent a majority of his time in right but saw starts in center field as well. If a team believes they can unlock even below-average power from Gonzalez’s swing he’s likely to be taken. At only 20 years of age and a handful of average or better skills, Gonzalez presents a fair bit of upside. 

Ben DeLuzio, OF Diamondbacks (selected by Cardinals)

An unsigned third-rounder out of high school by the Marlins back in 2013, Deluzio spurned Miami to head to Florida State. Once there, DeLuzio underwhelmed and eventually signed with the Diamondbacks as an undrafted free agent after the 2016 draft. Over a five-year minor league career that has spanned 368 games and 1,286 at-bats Deluzio has hit .294/.363/.407 while providing above-average centerfield defense and baserunning value. It’s a tremendous amount of ground ball contact, but DeLuzio knows his game and plays to his strengths. It’s an up-and-down ceiling, but there are enough skills for a team to take a shot on DeLuzio as an emergency depth option in the upper minors. 

Doran Turchin, OF Orioles 

A strong junior season at Illinois was enough for the Orioles to take a shot on the Wisconsin native in the 14th round of the 2018 draft. He struggled across his first two seasons of professional ball but still earned a promotion to Double-A Bowie in 2021. Turchin showed his reliable above-average corner outfield defense and debuted a newly tweaked fly ball happy approach at the plate. Over the course of the season, Turchin’s fly ball rate approached near 50%. With the higher fly ball rate, his batting average on balls in play fell and it has an overall impact on his numbers. He’s turned into a below-average contact hitter, but it’s buoyed by his strong approach and on-base skills. It’s possible a team liked what they saw from Turchin’s new approach in 2021 and are willing to take a chance on further in-game power development. 

Santiago Chavez, C, Marlins 

A strong balance of defensive metrics earns Chavez a spot on the list. He ranks top five among available backstops in Frame Rate Above Average, Strikes Looking Above-Average, Passed Balls+Wild Pitches Above Average and threw out would-be base stealers at a 46.2% rate. While his poor hitting may take the shine off of his strong defensive performance, his skills behind the plate might be enough to earn him consideration. Historically at least a few catchers go in the MiLB portion of the Rule Five draft. His strong arm and above-average blocking and receiving skills are highly valued by teams, if only as a reliable org catcher to work with developing pitchers. 

Kekai Rios, C, Brewers (selected by Dodgers)

Another defensive standout among available catchers, Rios is arguably the best defender available. He nabs base runners at a 40% rate, blocks, frames, and receives extremely well and looks comfortable in the crouch. At the plate, he’s an above-average bat-to-ball hitter with a propensity to expand the zone. He lacks power at the point of contact and rarely shows power in games. If a team is to select Rios, it will be due to his standout defensive abilities. 

Nathan Perry, C Astros 

Youth and upside are two qualities generally lacking in the MiLB Rule 5 Draft, but the 21-year-old Perry could provide both. After breaking out in 2019 with short-season Tri-City, Perry’s numbers came back down to earth in 2021. He still hit .220/.321/.385 with 19 extra-base hits in 51 games, but he struggled to rediscover the power in 2019 when he slugged .462 with a .218 isolated slugging. He showed average bat-to-ball skills exemplified by his 73.3% contact rate, but his heavy rate of fly ball contact drove down his batting average on balls in play. He still flashes above-average raw power in games, it’s just a matter of getting to it with more consistency. An average framer, blocker and thrower, Perry has an average foundation of catching skills that should allow him to stick behind the plate long term. 

Frainyer Chavez, SS Rangers 

A 22nd-round pick in 2018, Chavez had an excellent debut in the AZL, but struggled when promoted to Low-A Hickory in 2019. He didn’t hit in 2021 either, posting a .244/.349/.302 slash line, for now, in High-A Hickory. However, Chavez is a versatile defender in the infield with the ability to be playable at shortstop. That’s also a traditional utility nature to Chavez’s offensive game, predicated on contact and on-base ability above power, with the speed to steal a base when called upon to do so. At just 22 with a variety of supporting skills, contact and switch hitting ability Chavez is an interesting depth piece to a potential suitor. 

Dakody Clemmer, RHP, Guardians (selected by Nationals)

Is anyone interested in another available reliever with a funky arm action? Clemmer plays the X-axis to perfection with a pitch mix predicated on heavy horizontal movement from his near sidearm slot. Despite a tall, lean build with long levers, Clemmer does an excellent job of getting downhill and extending into his leg block. Mixing a trio of offerings Clemmer works primarily fastball and slider but will mix in his changeup in around ten percent of the time. His fastball sits 92-94 mph, and he will run it up to 97 mph at peak, with a hard arm side run, generating over 16 inches of horizontal movement. At times, the heavy arm side break can be difficult to command with a high rate of arm side misses. The pitch plays above-average however, generating whiffs at a 26% rate while inducing ground balls at a rate of 55%. His sweeper slider is his go-to secondary and the best bat missing pitch in arsenal playing bookend to his horizontal four-seam break. His changeup flashes but he struggles to land it in the zone and is too often an easy take. Despite below-average command, Clemmer has the arsenal to miss bats, drive weak ground ball contact, and provide a unique and uncomfortable look in the late innings.

Gabe Mosser, RHP, Padres

The very definition of a crafty, pitchability type, Mosser throws the kitchen sink at hitters, with an arsenal that features five different pitches including a heavy, sweeping slider, splitter, cutter and a high-spin curveball with slurvy shape. He lacks velocity on his stuff but instead lives off a variety of shapes and velocity separation. The righthander made 14 starts at the High-A level, going 4-8 with a 4.39 ERA and a 4.12 FIP with 72 strikeouts and just 23 walks in 80 innings. He drives a high rate of ground balls and generally keeps the ball in the ballpark. It’s not an overwhelming pitch mix, but he could be a useful minor league starter.

Jean Casanova, RHP, Rangers 

Possessing a high-spin arsenal with a multitude of appealing analytical characteristics across his pitch mix, Casanova provides a solid three-pitch mix that he controls but struggles to command. He does a good job of throwing strikes, but too often catches the heart of the plate. His fastball sits 92-94 mph, touching 96 mph, with over 17 inches of induced vertical break, 2,500 rpms of raw spin and a sub-4.5 degree vertical approach angle. This allows Casanova to attack hitters in the upper quadrants and induce whiffs above the barrel. His sweeping, high-70s slider does a good job of balancing “whiff-inducer” with “ground ball driver” but his command of the pitch is fringy and he’ll often catch too much of the plate. His changeup, however, is his strongest pitch. His command of the pitch is excellent, as he lands it for a strike over 70% of the time while inducing whiffs at a greater than 40% rate. It’s a true three-pitch mix that severely underproduced its quality in 2021 due to Casanova’s poor command, which explains his 7.50 ERA as a reliever.

Walking Cabrera, OF Rockies (selected by Mariners)

After his fourth season of rookie ball, Cabrera was left unprotected by Colorado despite a strong offensive showing in the Arizona Complex League. The outfielder hit .252/.352/.460 with six home runs and a 12.8% walk rate. His data is solid as well, with max exit velocities near 113 mph. He displayed fringe-average bat-to-ball skills with above-average swing decisions and started 39 games across all three outfield positions, with the majority of his work coming in right field. He grades out as average at all three outfield positions and provided six outfield assists across 45 games this summer. While a 20-year-old with extensive complex experience isn’t an archetype that succeeds at the next level, Cabrera has shown enough to earn more opportunities.

Cole Uvila, RHP, Rangers (selected by Orioles)

It was a tale of two halves for Uvila in 2021. He went 2-2, 2.90 with a .212 opponent average at Double-A Frisco, but after a promotion to Triple-A Round Rock he was lit up for 22 earned runs in 22.2 innings thanks to slipping control (16 walks) and way too much hard contact (.354 opponent average). Uvila has a track record of being a successful reliever—his overall minor league line is 10-5, 3.18 with a .201 opponent average and a 1.23 WHIP in 150 innings. He has a solid mid-90s fastball and as this Tweet thread explains, he’s working this offseason on developing a breaking ball he can more consistently throw for strikes.

 

.@ColeUvila Making the most of his on-ramp this off-season @DrivelineBB.

Focuses

▪️ Adding "in-zone" breaker in the arsenal.
▪️ Narrow miss distance on "swing and miss" sweeper.

He's succeeded on both fronts — adding a gyro SL + narrowing BB miss distances to under 13.5". pic.twitter.com/ND6zwekgT8

— Chris Langin (@LanginTots13) December 7, 2021

 

Max Burt, SS, Yankees

Burt is the kind of versatile utilityman who often gets snapped up in the MiLB Rule 5 draft by a team needing to bolster its depth. He has played all four infield positions regularly and has reached Triple-A, although his bat limits his upside. He’s a .239/.300/.346 career minor league hitter.

Erik Sabrowski, LHP, Padres (selected by Guardians)

Sabrowski has thrown 29 innings in the four years since he was drafted in the 14th round out of Cloud County (Kan.) JC. He is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery that will sideline him for some of 2022. But there is still a shot he could get picked as a lefty with a high-spin low-90s fastball with good carry as well as a hard-to-square-up curveball.